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23 Jun, 9 tweets, 5 min read
Colorado's independent redistricting commission will release a preliminary congressional map shortly. Here are 2 maps I just quickly drew to give you a basic idea.

Left has a Latino district #CO01: davesredistricting.org/join/6ddda8a2-…
Right keeps Denver mostly whole: davesredistricting.org/join/76acb619-…
Both of these CO maps would have 4 relatively safe Dem districts, 3 relatively safe GOP districts (though Boebert could imperil their hold on #CO03), & the new #CO08 would be a swingy Trump '16 - Biden '20 district. I don't have precise 2020 data yet
Breaking: Colorado's independent redistricting commission just released its preliminary congressional map proposal.

This map is very problematic IMO for not drawing a substantially Latino district in Denver as I did upthread & instead prioritizes keeping Denver mostly whole
Colorado's redistricting commission used data estimates (2015-2019 American Community Survey??) in order to meet the deadline for a preliminary map, but they don't have to pass a final map until after the census releases official data in August, so an update is nearly guaranteed
This map is quite similar to one of the two I drew upthread. Just eyeballing it, Districts 1, 2, 6, & 8 look relatively safe for Dems, 3, 4, & 5 look safe for the GOP, & 7 looks like a swingy Trump '16 - Biden '20 district, but more precise data is needed to be sure of that
The problem with this version is that the Latino proportion of eligible voters is notably lower than the total or adult population, & there's a large white majority. The map I drew upthread that splits Denver to create a Latino district is just plurality-white by eligible voters
A rough sketch makes Colorado’s preliminary new congressional map seem pretty fair overall. Mean-median test with 4 districts bluer than CO itself & 4 redder is great, though partisan symmetry test suggests a slight GOP bias.

But inadequate Latino representation is a big problem
Here’s what I mean when I say Colorado’s preliminary new congressional map is fair under the mean-median test but slightly GOP-biased under partisan symmetry: Each party would win 4 seats apiece in a tied election, but GOP has an easier path to 5 seats when they win than Dems
This point can’t be emphasized enough when judging the fairness of redistricting maps. Sometimes you’ll see me looking at a few high-salience elections when data is limited as it often is, but it’s almost always best when possible to average many different races & election years

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More from @PoliticsWolf

Stephen Wolf Profile picture
23 Jun
Connecticut's Dem governor just signed a law that:
✅Adopts automatic voter registration at various state agencies
✅Restores voting rights to everyone not in prison
✅Allows online mail ballots requests & makes drop boxes permanent
✅Gives workers 2 hours unpaid time off to vote
After Connecticut's expansion of automatic voter registration & voting rights restoration, I've updated my cartograms on AVR & felony voter bans.

47% of Americans live in states with AVR laws & 55% in states where almost everyone not in prison can vote
Since just 2015, there's been huge progress on the adoption of automatic voter registration after Oregon became the first state to adopt it that year, & many states (plus D.C.) both blue & red have curtailed felony voter bans in that same time period. Still a ways to go, though
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
16 Jun
Potentially huge news for efforts to strengthen democracy!

The For the People Act would enact the most significant voting access expansions since the 1965 Voting Rights Act, ban congressional gerrymandering, & adopt new campaign finance/ethics regulations dailykos.com/stories/2021/3…
Of course, if Manchin still won't curb the filibuster in some way to let Dems overcome GOP obstruction, this won't matter much, but the necessary first step toward setting up a filibuster showdown is to secure majority support & thus Manchin's vote on the bill itself
The reports of the death of the For the People Act (#HR1/#S1) at the hands of Dem Sen. Joe Manchin have been premature
Read 9 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
4 Jun
Illinois Dems have enacted new legislative gerrymanders & state Supreme Court districts, making IL the 2nd state to enact new legislative maps after the 2020 census. But due to census data delays, these were drawn using population estimates & could draw a lawsuit because of it
Illinois redistricting is badly flawed & IL should adopt proportional representation to ensure fairness.

However, these legislative gerrymanders only counteract Dems' geography penalty & likely fail to obtain a Dem advantage in excess of the popular vote electionlawblog.org/?p=122269
Illinois' Supreme Court has been redistricted for the first time in 6 decades to end the malapportionment that had left one district with as many people as two others combined. The new map is much fairer but counterintuitively still has a huge GOP bias. See this thread for more:
Read 5 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
25 May
[Thread] Major Illinois redistricting news: Dems have proposed redrawing IL's Supreme Court districts for the 1st time in decades. Compare the current districts (first), which have become badly malapportioned since they were drawn in the 1960s, with Dems' proposed redraw (second)
I wrote a story just last week on how Illinois' malapportioned Supreme Court districts could lead to a decade of GOP minority rule in the legislature as a result of the 2022 elections if Dems don't redraw the court districts to make them fairer, so this news has big implications
Dems' new IL Supreme Court districts would end the malapportionment that has left the 2nd District with as many people as the 4th & 5th Districts combined. Doing so flips the 3rd District from 51-47 Trump to 53-45 Biden & boosts Dem chances of winning the key 2022 election there
Read 5 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
25 May
From the lame duck power grabs after Dems won governors offices in MI, NC, & WI in 2016-2018 to Trump’s Big Lie to AZ GOP considering stripping power from an elected office only when Dems win it, the Republican Party is increasingly refusing to cede power when they lose elections
Update: Arizona state House GOP has passed a bill in a committee that strips Dem Secretary of State Katie Hobbs' power to defend election lawsuits & hands that power to GOP Attorney General Mark Brnovich, but only through the end of Hobbs' term in 2022 abc15.com/news/state/sec…
In what is a highly petty move, the Arizona GOP's bill also strips Dem SoS Hobbs of her oversight of the state Capitol's museum after she flew a gay pride flag from the Capitol balcony in 2019
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
15 May
Mississippi is now firmly the least democratic state:

Huge barriers to voting

1 in 9 people banned from voting for life due to a felony (Black voters at 2x the rate of whites)

Dems would have to win the popular vote by an impossible 15% to win the GOP-gerrymandered legislature
Mississippi:

Has no early voting

Requires an excuse & *notarization* for both requesting & casting an absentee ballot

Requires voters to register 30 days before Election Day, which is the maximum allowed under federal law, & no online, same-day or automatic voter registration
It is entirely not a coincidence that the state with the highest proportion of Black citizens is also the least democratic in America.

They still have vestiges of their 1890 Jim Crow constitution in effect & until last year even had a hyper-gerrymandered "electoral college" law
Read 5 tweets

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