Thread by @JesseJenkins

Today's big news: @POTUS & a bipartisan group of Senators have "struck a deal" on an infrastructure package. apnews.com/article/biden-… That has many asking, What does this mean for #cleanenergy & #climateaction? tl/dr: There's now a narrow path to victory. Here's what it looks like

There's now a "two-step dance" to get both a bipartisan infrastructure bill + a party-line budget reconciliation through Congress. The former has key energy RD&D wins in it, and the latter is key to drive big emissions cuts in 2020s. Pelosi says it's all or nothing: both or none.

Pelosi today said "There ain’t going to be a bipartisan bill without a reconciliation bill."

Wyden & other senators have been clear they wont vote for infra. bill without an agreement amongst all 50 Democrats on reconciliation that has climate priorities

https://twitter.com/AnthonyAdragna/status/1408104790899539972

How will that work? What leverage do they have? They can kill any infra. bill w/out a reconciliation deal. Pelosi vows the House will not vote until the Senate has dealt with both packages + there's a large enough block of D senators prioritizing climate to sink deal in Senate.

I was initially worried a narrow "roads & bridges" deal would sap will for a reconciliation bill, which was always the only way robust clean energy provisions could get through this Senate. But it doesnt seem like that's the case. If anything, today's deal gives more leverage...

W/Manchin, Sinema & other moderate Ds now personally invested in this bipartisan deal, a threat of killing their hard-won agreement is more meaningful. There's a reason for them to work w/the caucus on reconciliation that wasnt clear yesterday. And their votes were always the key

What's in the deal itself? 5 D & 5 GOP senators hammered out a framework for $953B infrastructure bill, including $559B in new spending. Biden just signed on. It's mostly roads & bridges, water, broadband: "traditional" infrastructure. But it does have some key energy provisions.

Joe Manchin is simultaneously key negotiator on bipartisan infrastructure, 'median senator' + Senate Energy Committee (ENR) chair. This AM, ENR held hearing on energy components of the bipartisan infra. deal. Hearing:
energy.senate.gov/hearings/2021/… Bill text energy.senate.gov/services/files…

Some key measures
1. Full funding for clean energy RD&D authorized by Energy Act of 2020 incl storage, advanced geo etc
2. Key provisions to expand transmission & connect wind + solar
3. $8B for hydrogen demos & buy down of electrolysis cost, $1.5B for H2 R&D (key Biden AJP ask)

4. The full SCALE Act for carbon capture, utilization, transport, and storage.
5. $3.5B for direct air capture demos.
6. $3B battery manufacturing and recycling grant program
7. Expands Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing loan program to include heavy & medium duty vehicle

8. $6B over 5 yrs for competitive DOE credit program to support financially struggling existing nuclear & preserve foundation for rapid emissions cuts
9. $3.5B for Weatherization Assistance Program (as per Biden FY22 request)
10. $16B for orphan wells/abandoned mines (cut CH4)

So the bipartisan deal could have several provisions to advance clean energy innovation + setup technologies needed to get to net-zero beyond 2030. This is NOT the big driver of CO2 cuts this decade, but all important measures to prime the "Green Vortex" theatlantic.com/science/archiv…

Notching those innovation wins in a bipartisan bill would be a good thing. To be clear: these measures are FAR from sufficient response to climate threat, but they are a piece of a gathering tide of momentum towards a complete set of clean, affordable solutions to reach net-zero.

The big question now is how will Dems hammer out an agreement on a budget reconciliation that can advance priorities from Biden's American Jobs & American Families Plans & big clean energy pieces that can secure all 50 Ds? What will it contain? That's the hard work that remains

Some key priorities for reconciliation bill:

1. decarbonizing electricity w/tax credits & a reconciliation-friendly alternative to clean electricity standard
2. pushing electric vehicles over tipping point w/consumer rebates, manufacturing support, and charger network build out

3. A new clean bank or "accelerator" that can make $60B+ available to help finance ~$500b in key clean infrastructure investments & de-risk advanced technologies
4. Manufacturer subsidies or point of sale rebates to make buying a heat pump a no brainer whenever you replace old AC

5. Programs to retool US clean manufacturing supply chain + provisions to ensure good paying, family-sustaining jobs across these industries
6. Provisions and programs geared toward underserved & energy transition communities
7. Robust building efficiency & electrification
& more

It's a lot and given the dynamics, we may not get everything we need. But every bit we win pushes the accelerator on the "Green Vortex" feedback loop: policy -> tech adoption -> cost declines & interest group realignment -> policy, repeat. See @yayitsrob theatlantic.com/science/archiv…

It's a narrow & tenuous path, and it could all still easily fall apart (the thing about "all or nothing" is that nothing is still one of the options).

But the KEY takeaway for me is that A PATH IS NOW OPEN TO VICTORY that was not there yesterday.

Now it's time to seal the deal

p.s. Manchin is saying today that this deal on infrastructure IS part of a "two-track" process that includes a party-line Reconciliation bill as well. This is important:

https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1408138120286162948

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1408137441874153472

https://twitter.com/Yamiche/status/1408103431068344327

p.s. the energy measures I described above in the bipartisan bill are part of a draft bill that will go through Senate EMR Cmte. Other measures will go through Environment & Public Works and reportedly include $7.5b each for EV charging & electric buses

https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1408123630312112128?s=20

p.s. Here's @POTUS fact sheet on his support for the bipartisan infrastructure deal whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…

p.s. @potus: "I expect that in the coming months this summer, before the fiscal year is over, that we will have voted on this (bipartisan) bill - the infrastructure bill - as well as voted on the budget resolution. But if only one comes to me, I'm not signing it. It's in tandem."

Via Reuters mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id…