Whenever you consume content and need to draw conclusions from it, refer to Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit. Twelve simple logical fallacies to watch. If you spot these, you are asking the right questions.
Full piece linked at the end👇 (1/13)
(1) ad hominem—Latin for “to the man,” attacking the arguer and not the argument (e.g., The Reverend Dr. Smith is a known religious fundamentalist, so her objections to evolution need not be taken seriously); (2/13)
(2) argument from authority (e.g., Nixon should be re-elected because he has a secret plan to end war in Asia—but because it was secret, there was no way for electorate to evaluate on merits; the argument amounted to trusting because he was President: a mistake); (3/13)
(3) argument from adverse consequences (e.g., The defendant in a widely publicized murder trial must be found guilty; otherwise, it will be an encouragement for other men to murder their wives) (4/13)
(4) appeal to ignorance— claim that what isn't proved false must be true, and vice versa (e.g., no evidence that UFOs not visiting Earth; therefore UFOs exist—there is intelligent life elsewhere in the Universe. However, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. (5/13)
(5) special pleading, often to rescue a proposition in deep rhetorical trouble (e.g. How can a merciful God condemn future generations to torment because, against orders, one woman induced one man to eat an apple? (6/13)
(6) begging the question, also called assuming the answer (e.g. stock market fell because of technical adjustment and profit-taking —but is there any independent evidence for the causal role of these factors? Have we learned anything from this purported explanation?) (7/13)
(7) observational selection, also called the enumeration of favorable circumstances, or as the philosopher Francis Bacon described it, counting the hits and forgetting the misses (e.g. A state boasts of the Presidents it has produced, but is silent on its serial killers) (8/13)
(8) statistics of small numbers—a close relative of observational selection (e.g. “They say 1 out of every 5 people is Chinese. How is this possible? I know hundreds of people, and none of them is Chinese” Or: “I’ve thrown three sevens in a row. Tonight I can’t lose” (9/13)
(9) misunderstanding of the nature of statistics (e.g. President Dwight Eisenhower expressing astonishment and alarm on discovering that fully half of all Americans have below average intelligence - when talking of average, half people have to be above or below). (10/13)
(10) inconsistency (e.g., Prudently plan for the worst of which a potential military adversary is capable, but thriftily ignore scientific projections on environmental dangers because they’re not “proved.” (11/14)
(11) non sequitur—Latin for “It doesn’t follow” (e.g., Our nation will prevail because God is great. But nearly every nation pretends this to be true. Often those falling into the non sequitur fallacy have simply failed to recognize alternative possibilities; (12/14)
(12) post hoc, ergo propter hoc—Latin for “It happened after, so it was caused by” (e.g., Archbishop of Manila: “I know of a 26-year-old who looks 60 because she takes [contraceptive] pills.” Or: "Before women got the vote, there were no nuclear weapons") (13/14)
The piece by Carl Sagan is linked below. Best read slowly and in full. RT the first post - it's free and brings this to more readers.
Bizarre and brazen moves are common on the penny stock side of the stock exchanges. Vikas Proppant and Granite Ltd just released this intimation, announcing en-masse resignation of the entire management and board of the company to "bring in professional management". (1/7)
The shares of this company were heavily manipulated in the last 2 years, following the typical pattern of operators hand-in-hand with enabling management. Here's a look at the stock chart. Take a look at the volumes before the rise and the volume of trapped retailers after. (2/7)
Company has had almost no revenue in the last 3-4 years, except for a brief blip in 2019 when the stock prices also went up 6-8x in a very short span of time. In fact, it has been selling fixed assets this year. (3/7)
Bull runs in small caps are usually fast and furious, and the cycle repeats itself every 3-4 years. Every time, retail is sold stories of business turnaround and stock charts look fantastic for meteoric wealth creation. For the class of 2020-21, here's a couple of past stars.
These small cap stocks with 30-40 crore market cap went up 23X and 11x in a span of 24 months between April 16 and April 18. The story looked great then, but subsequently once liquidity and interest disappeared, the prices went right back to where they came from.
When in the thick of the action, it can be difficult to keep a level mindset. To keep the narrative believable, these companies are able to massage their top-line and bottom-line for a short period of time to show an imminent turnaround. Note the trends in these financials.
Some thoughts on the PNB Housing Finance (PNBHF) drama around raising INR 4000 crore via preferential issue and ceding management control to Carlyle PE.
On 31 May 21, PNBHF board approved fundraise via preferential issue of shares worth INR 4000 crore to Carlyle PE, General Atlantic and Salisbury Investments (Aditya Puri). The price was fixed at INR 390 per share, INR 6 above the floor under the SEBI ICD regulations. (1/n)
The share capital of PNBHF will increase from 16.82 crore equity shares of INR 10 each, to 27 crore equity shares of INR 10 each. Simple math - 39% dilution on the existing share capital base. That is a huge dilution for promoters and minority shareholders. (2/n)
Decoding the SEBI order against Franklin Templeton (FT). Quoted verbatim, "a fall out of the obsession to run high yield strategies without due regard from concomitant risk".
A thread 👇
FT’s recent issues with its debt schemes are widely known. In this thread, I distill the SEBI order dated 07 June 2021 against Franklin Templeton and outline the primary (alleged) misdemeanours by FT. Find the order here: sebi.gov.in/enforcement/or… (1/n)
Setting the tone of this topic is this statement by the SEBI in its concluding paragraphs. Obsession with yield, strange dealings with debt issuers and complete lack of risk management. The whole nine yards. (2/n)
The anatomy of Private Equity (PE) funding in a public listed company.
A thread 👇 (1/n)
PG Electroplast Limited, a contract manufacturer of various kinds of electrical goods and appliances, recently announced an 80 crore fund-raise through preferential allotment of equity shares and compulsorily convertible debentures (CCD) to Baring PE and family funds. (2/n)
Such transactions are a great way to understand Private Equity deals in a public setting. Because of disclosure norms for listed companies, everything related to a fund infusion in a listed company is made available to the public. (3/n)