This is one of those days when there's only one story in town. But I still think, as I would, that my column on borders/immigration is flagging up something important. Quick thread follows. thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit…
Brexit reduced the saliency of immigration. But it's still a major public concern. See this @YouGov issues tracker - it's the pink line.
And the public - probably driven by Covid border rows - don't think the govt are handling it very well. (This also via @yougov)
Maybe that's because they haven't noticed eg the introduction of the points-based system because of the pandemic. Or maybe because the same tensions we've seen over lockdown are in evidence over the borders.
MPs, businesses, travel sector, airlines, affluent folk with holiday homes are desperate for govt to unlock - hence row over green list last week. But as on lockdown, the public still in turtle mode.
This polling from @IpsosMORI for example shows that if it meant controlling a new variant, they would support banning literally every flight into the country by a margin of 5:1.
This will probably fade as an issue as vaccine rollout proceeds and we open up more. But broader border tensions will remain. There's obviously the small boats issue and illegal migration in general...
...but I was struck re Chesham by how many people were saying 'all these new houses are because of migration'. As Alex Morton of @CPSThinkTank has shown, migration is 1/3 of housing demand in the govt targets - but that's only because the figures are years out of date.
In fact, as I point out in my column, if you redid the numbers with the latest figures pre-Covid, you'd need to build roughly 50,000 extra houses - the same sort of increase, as Alex pointed out on @ConHome, that triggered the latest massive planning row conservativehome.com/platform/2021/…
There's also the fact that many businesses have acute labour shortages post-Covid. They're used to bringing in immigrants to fill the gap - but the govt is pointing to rising unemployment and furlough ending and saying why can't you hire British? (And, shock, raise wages...)
In other words, as I say in the column, we're set for continued tensions between open and closed. Please give it a read thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit…
(Also worth flagging that I still think, as I wrote in March, that immigration is politically an asset for the Tories against Labour - but only if voters believe we really did take back control... thetimes.co.uk/article/toughe…)

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Robert Colvile

Robert Colvile Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @rcolvile

26 Jun
This @thetimes story about Eton setting up new free schools is fantastic news. But it also shows the poverty of the Government's own ambition on this. Mini thread follows. thetimes.co.uk/article/eton-t…
Since the free schools programme got started, it has provided galvanising energy to the education sector. Not all schools have succeeded - but many of those that have, have been downright extraordinary.
London Academy of Excellence, the similar school started by Eton and others in Newham, has now sent 150 kids to Oxbridge in eight years, a third of them on free school meals and 92% of the latest cohort BAME. lae.ac.uk/183/news/post/…
Read 11 tweets
21 Jun
A good day to plug @CPSThinkTank's work with @DamianGreen on social care, which is still for my money the most convincing option on the table cps.org.uk/media/media-co…
Our view is that Dilnot or variants of it fall down on the house price issue. 'Vanilla' Dilnot doesn't protect people's homes. Trying to fix that results in a policy which protects the massive housing wealth of the south at the expense of the north.
And the idea of incorporating it within the NHS falls down because a) the NHS really doesn't want the headache and b) you're taking stuff people are already paying for privately and substituting state funding.
Read 7 tweets
20 Jun
What caused the Chesham/Amersham earthquake? My answer - it's a symptom of a new kind of two-party politics (1/?) thetimes.co.uk/article/this-w…
In a sense it's classic Lib Dem opportunism - push hard on housing and HS2, even though they actually support both at a national level. But the scale of the swing suggests two other things.
First, Brexit has weakened the ties that bind (in this case Tories to their trad voters). Second, it's not that Labour are going to be displaced by the Greens (as many southern Tories have been saying privately) or Lib Dems. It's that the electoral battle is Tories v anti-Tories.
Read 8 tweets
19 Jun
A quick point on planning reform (apart from 'it's a good thing and we really need to do it')... (1/?)
The planning reforms that are coming forward are actually built around giving local communities more say! The design codes and local plans, which are set locally, are meant to ensure that only nice stuff gets built and only in the areas you want it.
This obviously cuts against the need to actually build more homes, and the fact that these homes do actually need to be in the areas where there is greatest shortage, ie London and South-East.
Read 7 tweets
13 Jun
Have written my column today on Britain's new foreign policy strategy, which is much more developed (and convincing) then many realise. But there's a big 'but'. (1/?) thetimes.co.uk/article/4fd9b7…
Our new approach is exactly the opposite of the EU's. It's to create and support the coalitions that are going to do the most on any issue. It's to be practical, flexible, fast and fluid.
In doing so, it's a philosophical - even theological - rebuke to the EU, both in terms of diplomacy and economics/regulation.
Read 7 tweets
7 Jun
I wrote my Sunday Times column yesterday about the problems Boris Johnson will have paying for education catch-up. No such problems in Scotland - because they've only put in £20m, or 1/155th of the amount. What's going on? A quick thread (1/?) thetimes.co.uk/article/plucki…
The Johnson govt put £1.7bn into extra tuition last year, and £1.4bn this. The Scottish govt claims to have already spent £400m on 'education recovery'. On the face of it, given population size, this makes Scotland slightly more generous in terms of catch-up funding. Right?
Wrong! The £400m was spent primarily on ventilation in classrooms, to help children go back to school safely. Which is good! We all know the virus doesn’t like fresh air. But it’s stopping the slide, not repairing the damage glasgowtimes.co.uk/news/19212491.…
Read 24 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(