What caused the Chesham/Amersham earthquake? My answer - it's a symptom of a new kind of two-party politics (1/?) thetimes.co.uk/article/this-w…
In a sense it's classic Lib Dem opportunism - push hard on housing and HS2, even though they actually support both at a national level. But the scale of the swing suggests two other things.
First, Brexit has weakened the ties that bind (in this case Tories to their trad voters). Second, it's not that Labour are going to be displaced by the Greens (as many southern Tories have been saying privately) or Lib Dems. It's that the electoral battle is Tories v anti-Tories.
Opposition to the Tories will coalesce around whichever party (Lab, Lib, Green, SNP...) is most likely to hurt the govt. As I say in the piece, this could be a real electoral headache for the Tories.
Now, as I also say in the piece, this could all be wrong. This could actually just be one of those weird by-election things that gets forgotten about at the next GE. But that doesn't actually matter...
Because a vote like this licenses every other southern Tory to be afraid for their seat, and to vote against planning reform, and to tell Boris loudly that they need more of the political TLC that the North has been getting.
As @robfordmancs told me, in a brilliant quote, 'The political narratives that MPs are most inclined to believe are those that end with: ‘... which is why seats like mine need more attention’.'
You can read the full thing here - much more in there thetimes.co.uk/article/this-w…

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More from @rcolvile

21 Jun
A good day to plug @CPSThinkTank's work with @DamianGreen on social care, which is still for my money the most convincing option on the table cps.org.uk/media/media-co…
Our view is that Dilnot or variants of it fall down on the house price issue. 'Vanilla' Dilnot doesn't protect people's homes. Trying to fix that results in a policy which protects the massive housing wealth of the south at the expense of the north.
And the idea of incorporating it within the NHS falls down because a) the NHS really doesn't want the headache and b) you're taking stuff people are already paying for privately and substituting state funding.
Read 7 tweets
19 Jun
A quick point on planning reform (apart from 'it's a good thing and we really need to do it')... (1/?)
The planning reforms that are coming forward are actually built around giving local communities more say! The design codes and local plans, which are set locally, are meant to ensure that only nice stuff gets built and only in the areas you want it.
This obviously cuts against the need to actually build more homes, and the fact that these homes do actually need to be in the areas where there is greatest shortage, ie London and South-East.
Read 7 tweets
13 Jun
Have written my column today on Britain's new foreign policy strategy, which is much more developed (and convincing) then many realise. But there's a big 'but'. (1/?) thetimes.co.uk/article/4fd9b7…
Our new approach is exactly the opposite of the EU's. It's to create and support the coalitions that are going to do the most on any issue. It's to be practical, flexible, fast and fluid.
In doing so, it's a philosophical - even theological - rebuke to the EU, both in terms of diplomacy and economics/regulation.
Read 7 tweets
7 Jun
I wrote my Sunday Times column yesterday about the problems Boris Johnson will have paying for education catch-up. No such problems in Scotland - because they've only put in £20m, or 1/155th of the amount. What's going on? A quick thread (1/?) thetimes.co.uk/article/plucki…
The Johnson govt put £1.7bn into extra tuition last year, and £1.4bn this. The Scottish govt claims to have already spent £400m on 'education recovery'. On the face of it, given population size, this makes Scotland slightly more generous in terms of catch-up funding. Right?
Wrong! The £400m was spent primarily on ventilation in classrooms, to help children go back to school safely. Which is good! We all know the virus doesn’t like fresh air. But it’s stopping the slide, not repairing the damage glasgowtimes.co.uk/news/19212491.…
Read 24 tweets
6 Jun
Have written on the catch-up row, and what it tells us about the (many) battles ahead. Quick summary below (1/?) thetimes.co.uk/article/plucki…
Boris told the nation in April that after an “absolutely unimaginable year for... everybody in education”, his biggest priority was “the loss of learning for so many children and young people.” But when Sir Kevan Collins came up with a plan, he wouldn't fund it. How come?
First things first. As this @CPSThinkTank/@PublicFirst_PF report by @racheljanetwolf, @jonathansimons & @racheljanetwolf shows, catch-up is vitally necessary, as parents/public both recognise. cps.org.uk/research/lost-…
Read 12 tweets
3 Jun
Today, @CPSThinkTank publishes a major report on education catch-up by @racheljanetwolf, @jonathansimons & @gabrielmilland. (Which given the news agenda today, has been a bit like wandering into No Man's Land on the first day of the Somme and asking 'Anyone for a picnic?'...)
The report has some really important findings, which speak to the concerns of those on all sides of the debate - not least one B Johnson, when he said that 'loss of learning' should be our 'biggest priority' and is 'the thing we've got to focus on now as a society'
We did multiple polls and focus groups. It's very clear that parents feel their children have been badly affected by lockdown (67% agree). Only 5% of voters said there was no need for catch-up.
Read 14 tweets

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