Initial reaction to French regional elections #electionsregionales2021 :
Winners:
1) all incumbent regional region heads are re-elected (all fm mainstream parties).
2) with strong wins by Bertrand (North) & Wauquiez (Lyon area), the mainstream Right has 2 strong potential...1/
Winners:
1) all incumbent regional region heads are re-elected (all fm mainstream parties).
2) with strong wins by Bertrand (North) & Wauquiez (Lyon area), the mainstream Right has 2 strong potential...1/
...presidential candidates. But it will have to decide who will be the actual candidate in order to have a chance to beat Macron. Losers:
1) The extremes:
LePen's party does as poorly as last Sunday. The defeat is particularly stinging in the South. LePen is badly hurt as a...2/
1) The extremes:
LePen's party does as poorly as last Sunday. The defeat is particularly stinging in the South. LePen is badly hurt as a...2/
presidential candidate. She may face a challenge from her right (Zemmour)
The hard left has cratered. In the Paris area, the merged list of the greens (Bayou), hard left (Autain), Socialists (Pulvar) did less well than in the 1st round. Bad for Mélenchon (19% in 2017) 3/
The hard left has cratered. In the Paris area, the merged list of the greens (Bayou), hard left (Autain), Socialists (Pulvar) did less well than in the 1st round. Bad for Mélenchon (19% in 2017) 3/
2) the presidential majority did as poorly or worse than last Sunday (ca 10%). The Macronien candidate got less than 10% in the Paris area. In his 2017 campaign, Macron benefitted from grass-roots militancy. He won't have much of a machine in 2022. Of course, a presidential...4/
...contest is about personalities rather than local machines, but still...
3) voter participation was about as low as last Sunday's abysmal 1/3 level. Bad as this is, it is generally not expected to be replicated in the presidential elex.
Bottom-line: the 2022 presidential... 5/
3) voter participation was about as low as last Sunday's abysmal 1/3 level. Bad as this is, it is generally not expected to be replicated in the presidential elex.
Bottom-line: the 2022 presidential... 5/
...election may yet be a repeat of 2017 (Macron vs Le Pen, and Macron wins), but this script is now much less certain. The Right has a chance - if it can sort out its competing candidates.
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