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Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
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30 Jun, 5 tweets, 2 min read
I actually don't think that the NYC BOE erroneously adding ~135k test votes materially changes today's big takeaway - that Garcia gains a lot of ground from ranked choice voting and has a solid shot at winning the NYC Mayor election.

THREAD 🧵(1/4)

The candidates that benefitted the most from the ~130k test votes were disproportionately very minor candidates like Taylor, Chang, Wright, "Paperboy Love Prince," Foldenauer, and Write-Ins.

(2/4)
Many of the test ballots that ranked minor candidates first didn't ranked anyone else or ranked other very minor candidates for 2/3/4/5.

Only 21.44% of the votes for Taylor/Chang/Wright/Prince/Foldenauer/Write-Ins were reallocated by round 7.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

(3/4)
TLDR: The test ballots issue was obviously a complete disaster and it's unfortunate that it happened.

But I suspect that what we get tomorrow (final round ranked choice results for in-person ballots only) will actually be fairly close to what we got today (Adams +2%).

(4/4)
There's actually an interesting edge case that's theoretically possible where the NYC BOE decided to allocate ALL the ~16.6k Yang test ballots to Garcia for second choice, bumping her past Wiley.

But this would be different than what they did for the other test ballots.

(5/4)

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More from @ryanmatsumoto1

Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
23 Jun
The NYC Mayor results we get tonight will only be first round preferences for early + election day votes (NOT absentee).

The Adams/Wiley campaigns estimated 800k-900k total turnout on the Dem side.

87k Dem absentee ballots have been returned so far out of 208k requested.

(1/4)
32% of returned absentee ballots (Democrats) are from Manhattan while 24% are from Brooklyn. The 32% is likely higher than Manhattan's share of the Democratic primary electorate while 24% is likely lower than Brooklyn's share.

vote.nyc/sites/default/…

(2/4)
Manhattan will probably be Garcia's strongest borough while Brooklyn will be one of Adams' strongest boroughs.

So based on the absentee ballot data I'd say Garcia is probably the candidate most likely to move up with absentees while Adams is most likely to move down.

(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
22 Jun
Here's my rough estimates for the NYC Mayor primary:

Chance of making it to final round vs. Adams:
Garcia 47%
Wiley 37%
Yang 16%

Chance of beating Adams if they make it to the final round:
Garcia 50%
Wiley 34%
Yang 28%

Overall chances:
Adams 59%
Garcia 24%
Wiley 13%
Yang 4%
An average of 6 ranked choice polls that have the Adams vs. Garcia vs. Wiley penultimate round have Garcia edging out Wiley by 1.83 points. Garcia may also get a boost here from the Yang alliance.

Yang has a chance at the final round, but his position has deteriorated recently.
The average of ranked choice polls suggests Adams vs. Garcia would be a toss-up.

DFP had Wiley doing 12 points worse than Garcia versus Adams, while CitizenData had it at 4 pts.

Yang's best polls (Ipsos/Schoen Cooperman) still have him losing to Adams.

Read 4 tweets
Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
27 May
I think Trump would have done about the same had COVID never happened.

Trump's net approval rating was at -9.1% on 3/1/20 and -8.0% on 11/2/20, per the @FiveThirtyEight polling average.

There also wasn't really a shift away from Trump in places that were hit hardest by COVID.

Some of the places where COVID hit hardest (NYC, RGV) actually shifted the most *towards* Trump.

Demographic trends swamped any limited anti-Trump COVID effect that might have existed.
The "COVID cost Trump the election" theory is popular for a few reasons:

- Democrats think Trump did an *awful* job - surely that should have hurt him!
- Republicans want to shift blame for losing to an external factor.

I just don't think it's very well supported by the data.
Read 4 tweets
Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
5 Jan
Forced to choose with no Tossups, I’ll go with:

Tilt D
Ossoff by 2
Warnock by 2
3 key data points to this election:

#1: Perdue edged out Ossoff by 1.78 points in the first round.
#2: Early vote data shows strong initial Democratic turnout, especially with Black voters.
#3: Polls give Democrats a *very slight* edge.

#1 favors GOP and #2/3 favor Democrats.
The ratings are based on my confidence in each side winning rather than the expected margins.

There's a lot of uncertainty in this election, and there are very strong arguments in favor of Republicans pulling this off.

Read 5 tweets
Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
3 Jan
I would say that the strongest argument in favor of Republicans is that Perdue won the first round by 1.78 points.

The pro-D counterargument is that early voting turnout data is strong for Democrats.

(1/6)

A lot of this comes down to how revealing you think the early vote data is.

On one hand, many people have been burned by EV analysis in the past. The GOP can just show up on Election Day.

But there are a few factors that make EV potentially more interesting this time...

(2/6)
First, we have a decent baseline comparison of the November election. It's recent enough that there probably aren't a ton of people changing their minds.

This makes Early Vote analysis better than comparing 2012 to 2016, for example, when many people switched sides.

(3/6)
Read 6 tweets
Ryan Matsumoto Profile picture
30 Dec 20
New Georgia Senate poll from @WinWithJMC:

Ossoff 53%
Perdue 45%

Warnock 54%
Loeffler 45%

This Georgia poll also asked how/when voters plan to vote.

Just 7% said they planned to vote on Election Day.

If that actually pans out, tough to see how Republicans win given the pro-Democratic Early Vote data.

But 7% just seems REALLY low.

20% of the votes in November came on Election Day. So 7% in the runoff would be EXTREMELY low.

The crosstabs have Perdue winning the Election Day vote 84% - 16% and Loeffler winning it 78% - 22%.

If way more than 7% of votes come on Election Day, that would benefit Republicans.
Read 5 tweets

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