NEW PAPER #openaccess

To secure decent living standards for all while reducing global energy use to avert #climatebreakdown, governments need to:
↗️public services
↗️income equality
↘️extractive industries
❌economic growth in affluent countries

THREAD

bit.ly/2UdLn1I
@JKSteinberger @DrDanONeill @lamb_wf @jasonhickel @g_kallis @GeorgeMonbiot @EricHolthaus @KevinClimate @ClimateHuman @GretaThunberg 1/ Averting catastrophic climate changes beyond 1.5 C global warming requires both rapid decarbonisation of energy systems AND rapid reductions in global energy use. This is now recognised at the highest levels, including the recent report by the International Energy Agency.
@JKSteinberger @DrDanONeill @lamb_wf @jasonhickel @g_kallis @GeorgeMonbiot @EricHolthaus @KevinClimate @ClimateHuman @GretaThunberg 2/ By 2050, global final energy use must be as low as 27 gigajoules per person (GJ/cap) to reach the aspirations of the Paris Agreement of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C without relying on speculative negative emissions technologies, according to the IPCC (2018).
@JKSteinberger @DrDanONeill @lamb_wf @jasonhickel @g_kallis @GeorgeMonbiot @EricHolthaus @KevinClimate @ClimateHuman @GretaThunberg 3/ That means current global average energy use (55 GJ/cap) needs to be cut in half, while affluent countries like the UK (81 GJ/cap) need to cut their average energy use by as much as 65%, and the most energy-hungry countries like the USA (204 GJ/cap) need to cut by almost 90%.
@JKSteinberger @DrDanONeill @lamb_wf @jasonhickel @g_kallis @GeorgeMonbiot @EricHolthaus @KevinClimate @ClimateHuman @GretaThunberg 4/ A major concern is that such big energy cuts might undermine human well-being, both in affluent countries (where the largest energy cuts are needed) and in ‘poor’ countries (where billions of people currently live with precarious living standards, deprived of basic needs).
@JKSteinberger @DrDanONeill @lamb_wf @jasonhickel @g_kallis @GeorgeMonbiot @EricHolthaus @KevinClimate @ClimateHuman @GretaThunberg 5/ Why care? Because decent living standards – or the satisfaction of basic human needs (here: food, water, health, sanitation, education, livelihoods) – are a prerequisite for human well-being. If basic needs go unmet, people suffer serious physical, mental or social harm.
@JKSteinberger @DrDanONeill @lamb_wf @jasonhickel @g_kallis @GeorgeMonbiot @EricHolthaus @KevinClimate @ClimateHuman @GretaThunberg 6/ The point of averting climate breakdown is to avert unprecedented human (+ non-human) suffering/harm, now and in the future. This is imperative. But it's also imperative to end the enormous human suffering/harm that results from precarious living standards. We have to do both.
@JKSteinberger @DrDanONeill @lamb_wf @jasonhickel @g_kallis @GeorgeMonbiot @EricHolthaus @KevinClimate @ClimateHuman @GretaThunberg 7/ The problem is that, currently, all countries that provide decent living standards to most of the population [blue bars] use much more energy per person than what is ‘sustainable’: compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5 C without speculative technologies [red line].
@JKSteinberger @DrDanONeill @lamb_wf @jasonhickel @g_kallis @GeorgeMonbiot @EricHolthaus @KevinClimate @ClimateHuman @GretaThunberg @KetanJ0 @Peters_Glen @MichaelEMann @Luisamneubauer @ExtinctionR @sunrisemvmt @Fridays4future @R_Degrowth @ScientistsX 8/ On the other hand, in all countries where energy use is within such ‘sustainable’ levels (compatible with 1.5 C), significant parts of the population are deprived of decent living standards [yellow bars].
@JKSteinberger @DrDanONeill @lamb_wf @jasonhickel @g_kallis @GeorgeMonbiot @EricHolthaus @KevinClimate @ClimateHuman @GretaThunberg @KetanJ0 @Peters_Glen @MichaelEMann @Luisamneubauer @ExtinctionR @sunrisemvmt @Fridays4future @R_Degrowth @ScientistsX @DrSimEvans @AnnPettifor @beth_stratford @E_Hofferberth @baltrusz @yl_oswald @Miklos_Antal @giulio_mattioli @librand3 10/ The big question then is: can societies satisfy everyone’s basic human needs at low energy use?
Spoiler: theoretically, yes.
But how? Under which conditions? What are the ‘socio-economic conditions for satisfying human needs at low energy use’ (as the paper is entitled)?
@JKSteinberger @DrDanONeill @lamb_wf @jasonhickel @g_kallis @GeorgeMonbiot @EricHolthaus @KevinClimate @ClimateHuman @GretaThunberg @KetanJ0 @Peters_Glen @MichaelEMann @Luisamneubauer @ExtinctionR @sunrisemvmt @Fridays4future @R_Degrowth @ScientistsX @DrSimEvans @AnnPettifor @beth_stratford @E_Hofferberth @baltrusz @yl_oswald @Miklos_Antal @giulio_mattioli @librand3 @CharlieJGardner @ThierryAaron @LorenzClimate @LorenzoVelotti @kmbayliss @KateRaworth @timparrique @WiedenhoferD @PaulChatterton9 11/ The basic relationship between need satisfaction and energy use is simple: need satisfaction increases steeply with energy use, but only to a point: once need satisfaction is ‘sufficient’, it saturates, and additional energy use doesn't substantially improve need satisfaction

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More from @JefimVogel

14 Feb
LEEDS LEADS CLIMATE BREAKDOWN

8 hours and 1000 flawed arguments and biased procedures later, Leeds City Plans Panel voted 9-5 for airport expansion and the false promises of economic growth.
For “what Leeds needs is a premier-league football club and a premier-league airport”
🧵
1/ There was a lot of "I do care about climate change, BUT" – followed by a lot of blah blah. Blah blah economic growth. Blah blah connectivity. Blah blah competitiveness. Blah blah Manchester. Blah blah Westminster. Blah blah offsetting. Blah blah electric planes. Blah blah blah
2/ Also a lot of "I do have sympathy for residents suffering from planes flying over their roofs at night, BUT” - followed by more blah blah.
One councillor kindly offered his advice: “the way to less noise is more planes”. Right, Sherlock. Want to try that in your backyard?🤦‍♂️
Read 16 tweets
7 Feb
Despite COVID, emissions are still way too high.
To limit global warming to 1.5 C, we need to *rapidly*
(i) decarbonise energy use AND
(ii) reduce energy use AND
(iii) decarbonise land use AND
(iv) reduce land use
Yes, ALL of these things SIMULTANEOUSLY.
How are we doing?
THREAD
1/ To limit warming to 1.5 C, global energy use must be completely decarbonised.

But the opposite is happening! Emissions per unit of energy use (‘carbon intensity of energy’) have been INCREASING since 2000 (largely due to increases in the share of coal, primarily in China).
2/ Rapid decarbonisation of energy use requires both a rapid roll-out of renewables AND a rapid phase-out of fossils. Not either-or: both-and.
Read 12 tweets
18 Jan
✈️Can Leeds meet its climate targets if Leeds City Council allows expansion of Leeds Bradford Airport (LBA)?

No.

Is LBA’s own climate impact assessment accurate?

No.

Here’s the latest evidence. I urge Leeds City Plans Panel to
read this and act on it conscientiously.

THREAD
2/ Leeds City Council has adopted a CO2 target for Leeds based on a CO2 budget in line with 66% chance of staying below 1.5 C (black dotted curve) and committed to work towards net-zero CO2 by 2030, roughly met by @LeedsClimateCom's net-zero 2033 trajectory (grey dotted curve).
3/ Both trajectories exclude LBA emissions (~18% of Leeds emissions). I adjusted them to account for LBA emissions. Dark green dotted curve = budget-based CO2 target for Leeds incl. LBA; light green dotted curve = net-zero 2033 trajectory scaled by current share of LBA emissions.
Read 30 tweets
14 Nov 20
Great to hear @Matthuber78 on @jacobinmag arguing that environment + class must be thought and tackled together!

Fully agreed - and one of the key goals and principles of Degrowth.

But then, why does Matt so blatantly misportray Degrowth?

Let’s put the record straight.

THREAD
@Matthuber78 states that any environmental politics must secure people’s basic needs, strengthen the working class and tackle inequalities. Great, couldn't agree more!

But then why does Matt completely overlook the LONG list of Degrowth policies that do precisely that?

/2
A few examples of such Degrowth policies:

-Decommodify basic needs
-Universal Basic Services
-Universal Basic Income
-Cancel illegitimate debts
-job guarantee
-living wage
-reduce working time
-re-allocate productivity gains into work time reduction and job creation

/3
Read 14 tweets
11 Oct 20
@pauleastwd @JKSteinberger @jasonhickel @WIRED It's in the IPCC SR1.5C report, Fig. 2.5. Of the scenarios meeting 1.5C with no or little overshoot, only one doesn't heavily rely on negative emissions technologies: That one is the "Low Energy Demand" (LED) scenario, which indeed involves large reductions in energy demand. Image
@pauleastwd @JKSteinberger @jasonhickel @WIRED The Low Energy Demand scenario is based on Grubler et al., 2018. nature.com/articles/s4156…
@pauleastwd @JKSteinberger @jasonhickel @WIRED New research from @exergy_paul & co however suggests that the LED energy demand reduction rates are unlikely to be reconcilable with the simultaneously assumed high rates of GDP growth: this would require a step change in energy/GDP decoupling well beyond historical precedents.
Read 6 tweets

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