1) Portfolio update Jun-end -

$ADYEY $AFTPY $AGC $CRWD $DKNG $DOCU $FVRR $GHVI $GLBE $LSPD $MELI $OZON $PINS $PLTR $ROKU $RTP $SE $SHOP $SNAP $SNOW $TWLO $UPST

Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +731.24% (55.03%pa)
$ACWI +72.91% (12.01%pa)
$SPX +97.96% (15.19%pa)
2) YTD return -

Portfolio +29.38%
$ACWI +11.40%
$SPX +14.41%

Biggest positions -

1) $GLBE 2) $SE 3) $MELI 4) $ROKU 5) $SNAP

New buys - $FVRR
Sales - $CPNG $PATH

Contd....
Commentary -

June turned out to be a good month for my portfolio.

After the spring swoon, growth stocks finally rebounded on the back of declining long dated rates and this benefited my portfolio.

During the month, I made a handful of changes. In terms of sales, I got rid..
...of my shares in $CPNG , $PATH and #NQ_F .

$CPNG was sold at a pretty decent loss (~30%) as I reassessed the company's TAM and low gross margin. Even though this looks like a good business, I don't think its stock will set the world on fire due to its already big market cap,..
...lack of optionality and limited TAM. Consequently, I decided to take my loss.

Elsewhere, I sold my shares in $PATH with a small profit because its revenue growth rate decelerated sharply in Q1' 21 and I couldn't justify its hefty valuation. Plus, I didn't feel comfortable...
...with its on-premise offering.

I used those sale proceeds to re-invest in $FVRR after its large pullback. This looks like a promising, category leading business in the gig economy space which is still pretty early in its lifecycle and has excellent operating metrics!...
...This is why I decided to buy shares and build a medium size position.

$GLBE was a star performer in June as its stock nearly doubled in a month and it is now my biggest position by a country mile.

Today, I finally trimmed some shares (~10%) and added to my position....
... in Matterport, which published an exciting news release about a collaboration with $FB AI.

In my view, Matterport will probably become the dominant player in the 3-D capture + modelling space (perhaps a verb like Zoom) and it is still very early in its growth phase, which..
...is why I decided to increase my position after today's news release. Since $GLBE had run up a lot this month and I needed cash, trimmed this large position.

Turning to liquidity, it appears as though the Fed will make some sort of QE taper announcement in August...
...and that could create some volatility in the stock market. However, if history is any guide, the next 18-20% pullback in $SPX (and more in high beta stocks) will probably arrive towards the end of QE but in this business, there are no guarantees so best to keep an open mind...
For my part, I'm just staying invested in some of the best businesses that I've been able to find and during this difficult period, they are growing like weeds -->

Q1 YOY revenue growth rates between 49-175%!

Their business success is being reflected in their market caps...
...which is why my portfolio has appreciated by 29.38% YTD...okay, the hedging during the spring swoon helped...but you get the drift.

The best part is that I'm no genius and anybody can invest in and profit from these wonderful businesses!

Post retirement (mid-2016)...
...my portfolio CAGR has been ~55% and my entire account has appreciated by 731.24% (after 4 years and 10 months, $1 invested has grown to $8.31).

I'm mentioning this not to gloat but to show that anybody who invests in world-class businesses and stays the course can do this...
...As long as one diversifies sufficiently (18-22 companies are the sweet spot), doesn't take on excessive leverage and is able to ignore the macro calls of impending doom, he/she can beat the market and generate decent returns.

Hope this has been helpful. All the best!

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More from @saxena_puru

24 Jun
If a business has a super bright future, usually pays to buy shares for the long haul.

Many keep waiting for big pullbacks and miss out on life changing returns.

Few % here or there makes no difference if stock goes up 100s of % over several years.
In my 20+ year career as an investor, I've lost out on most money by NOT buying into super high-quality businesses because their valuations seemed "too high".

Those stocks ended up rallying 100s of % and well, the cheap stuff usually underperformed. Strange but true.
Fortunately, I've learnt from the school of hard knocks ---

Lesson ---> Pay up for quality

Own the best businesses, not the cheapest stocks.
Read 4 tweets
28 May
1) Portfolio update May-end -

$ADYEY $AFTPY $AGC $CPNG $CRWD $DKNG $DOCU $GHVI $GLBE $LSPD $MELI $OZON $PATH $PINS $PLTR $ROKU $RTP $SE $SHOP $SNAP $SNOW $TWLO $UPST

Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +624.34% (51.72%pa)
$ACWI +69.86% (11.80%pa)
$SPX +93.66% (14.93%pa)
2) YTD return -

Portfolio +11.68%
$ACWI +9.69%
$SPX +11.93%

Biggest positions -

1) $SE 2) $UPST 3) $GLBE 4) $SNOW 5) $MELI

Contd....
3) Commentary -

May was a tough month for growth companies as most related stocks came under the pump before stabilising.

Fortunately, my trend following indicators got me hedged in time and my portfolio remained market-neutral during most of the month which is reflected...
Read 11 tweets
13 May
Bitcoin network energy consumption -

Only 29 nations use more electricity annually; all the other countries in the world use less electricity than the Bitcoin network!

*CLICK to expand chart
Distribution of Bitcoin mining by country (2020) -

65% of Bitcoin mining is done in China!

This is the new 'safe haven, 'decentralised' money!?

Think again.
Bitcoin ownership distribution -

Is this really a 'decentralised' asset? Think again.

ONLY 2.14% of accounts own 94.77% of Bitcoin!

No wonder the whales are marketing it aggressively; as they benefit from rising demand (i.e. higher price).
Read 4 tweets
10 May
$ARKK - Broken down; brace yourself ⚠️🚨🚩
After parabolic rise last year, this is the completion of a topping formation and the beginning of the Stage 4 decline (which is usually the most vicious).

My portfolio got hedged about 10 days ago and now, I'm marginally net short.
Trolls were making fun of me about a month ago for going from leveraged long to hedged.

Who is laughing now!?

Always pays to listen to the market; being stubborn is a recipe for disaster. When it comes to portfolio holdings, its okay to be wrong, not okay to stay wrong.
Read 4 tweets
9 May
**THREAD**

A new currency *must* be handed out to each person at the same VALUE i.e. the swop with fiat currency has to be done at the same exchange rate for everybody.

With crypto, the miners and early HODLERs have paid very little for their tokens + now they are marketing...
it as a new 'currency' and the new buyers are swopping their fiat currency and buying in at higher prices - paying much more than the early buyers.

This is NOT how a new currency is introduced - this is akin to a Ponzi scheme which requires new $ to keep it going, so early...
buyers can cash out - there is NO value creation.

At any point in time, the cumulative sum of all net cash put in by losers will equal the cumulative sum of all net cash taken out by winners (excluding mining costs).

This is a bubble, clock is ticking. Good luck.
Read 6 tweets
8 May
Reviewed price charts of all asset bubbles going back decades. Amazing how they all look so similar -

Parabolic rise/blow off, initial decline, base building for a few weeks, then final leg down.

All formed perfect bell curves + selling only stopped with oversold readings.
The *minimum* decline I could find was 50% retracement of the entire rally and most gave back 65-75% of their entire gains.

Past doesn't guarantee the future, but human nature hasn't changed - interesting times!
Here is a chart (few months old) which shows how all the previous asset bubbles ended - Bell Curves.

The current bubble went up a bit further early this year but seems to have popped. Was aware it was an incipient bubble, just didn't realise it'd pop before end of QE.
Read 4 tweets

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