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Tom Moultrie Profile picture
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1 Jul, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Remember that rather (very!) odd case brought by LFN and other parties to declare pretty much all DMA regulations unconstitutional, and which was judged in their favour by Justice Davis? Well the SCA has given all of those a snotklap: saflii.org/za/cases/ZASCA…
"This case, as we will show, is an object lesson as to how a constitutional
challenge to promulgated regulations should not be brought." @pierredevos, for your analysis please!
@pierredevos OUCH. Parallels with @pandata19, much?
Ouch/
Oh. And telling the SCA to stick an apology (from the SCA to the respondent) 'up its arse' is probably not that great an idea.

Amazing. #WhoWouldaThunkIt?

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More from @tomtom_m

Tom Moultrie Profile picture
2 Jul
A new paper from @MRCza and @UCT_news published today by the #SAMJ, looking at unnatural deaths, alcohol restrictions, and curfew.
A (longish) thread, explaining what we did - and did not - find. Paper, open access, available here: samj.org.za/index.php/samj… Image
2/We use data for 68 weeks, from early 2020 to mid-April 2021 (the paper was submitted in early May).We then categorise each week by the nature of alcohol restrictions, and duration of curfew, in force based on the changing sequence of lockdown regulations. >fig1< Image
3/The expected deaths are derived from the collaboration's mortality surveillance system. We then proceed to model the excess unnatural deaths each week, to remove effects associated with (e.g.) month ends, with covariates of alcohol restriction and categorical curfew duration.
Read 14 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
30 Jun
Latest @mrcZA and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa out, covering the period to 26/06/21. 176 700 excess natural deaths since 3May21; 94 000 of which since 3Jan21; and 3 900 in the last week.
Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Much of the observed increase nationally driven by continuing increase in deaths in Gauteng and Johannesburg, where the current weekly deaths are at levels similar to that observed in the first two waves.
The p-scores (observed natural deaths expressed as a percentage above expected natural deaths) show rising mortality in all provinces other than NC and FS. Nationally, deaths in the week to 26Jun21 were 42% above expected - Gauteng 136% above expected. NC and NW both above 50%.
Read 7 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
23 Jun
Latest @mrcZA and @uct_news report on excess mortality released, data through 19Jun2021. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
A total of 173 132 excess deaths estimated since 3May2020. 3124 excess natural deaths in the week 13-19 June (prev week 2706). 90 000 since 29Dec2020.
2/ Nationally, natural deaths in the week more than 50% higher than expected (reminder: methodology for 2021 described here: samrc.ac.za/sites/default/…; methodolology for 2020 published in the SAMJ: samj.org.za/index.php/samj…
3/ Very sharp increases in excess deaths in Gauteng and Johannesburg metro. Gauteng deaths in the week to 19Jun2021 80% higher than expected (56% last week). City of Johannesburg deaths nearly at 2x expected for the week (99.1%).
Read 7 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
15 Jun
Ahead of the public holiday, the @mrcza and @UCT_news collaboration have released their latest report on excess natural deaths, covering the week to 12 June. 170k since 3 May 2020, more than half of which since the start of 2021. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Excess deaths in Gauteng (and Johannesburg) are rising quite steeply. Deaths in Gauteng in the week to 12 June 2021 more than 50% above expected.
Nationally, deaths in the week more than 30% higher than expected. In other provinces, natural mortality in the Northern Cape during the week is more than twice expected, for the fifth consecutive week.
Read 5 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
9 Jun
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths through 5 June 2021 released. 167 000 natural excess deaths since 3 May 2020; half of these (83k) since 3 Jan 2021. Report available here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
We observed sharp increases in observed deaths in both Gauteng and the City of Johannesburg in the last week
Nationally, deaths in the week to 5 Jun 2021 were 28% above expected (26% previous week). p-scores remain low in EC, WC; and around 20% in Limpopo and KZN. For the 4th consecutive week, mortality in NC was more than double that expected.
The p-score decreased in the Free State.
Read 5 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
1 Jun
Following on the recent more-than-doubling of 'official' Peruvian Covid-19 deaths (theguardian.com/world/live/202…) , perhaps a similar exercise is worth considering in South Africa? A thread ...
While officially reported Covid-19 deaths in South Africa are almost 57 000, the @MRCza and @UCT_news collaboration estimates that there have been more than 160 000 excess natural deaths in the country since May 2020. /2
The evolution of those excess deaths correlates closely with both the proportions testing positive, as well as the reported deaths (when the latter are analysed according to date of death). The full report on this is here: samrc.ac.za/sites/default/… /3
Read 11 tweets

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