U6 Unemployment in the USA 9.8% is all you need to know, still, nearly 7 million people are NOT in the labor force than were in, Jan 2020.
Since 2007, US full-time jobs are +4 million with a population +32 million. This is one of the MOST important macro-political economic facts that exist today, with colossal implications.
The easy answer nearly EVERYONE falls back on is the aging population, retirement - demographics. It is an important piece of the puzzle but hides a dark picture. In June 122,000 persons, 25 to 34 years of age left the labor force.
USA: We have lost 6 million full-time jobs since 2019, and in June we actually lost more, FACT. The pandemic is replacing higher-paying full-time jobs with lower quality employment, massive impact on FOMC, future tax receipts. See rates, gold, USD.
Over 48% of small businesses surveyed have an open position they’re unable to fill. “We’re far beyond the average tight labor market, and it’s only getting worse,”
National Federation of Independent Business.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Dear $AMC Shareholders, Credit Markets are trying to tell you something, will you listen?
New Post - AMC 5.75% due 2025 are offered at 81 cents on the dollar. Meanwhile, the stock is trading at all-time highs. The disconnect indeed is very telling...
*After 30 years of trading stocks and bonds, 95% of the time I can assure you, credit leads equities. That´s a 12.25% yield to worst vs. 5 year Treasuries at 0.79%.
Nomura is a small prime broker, CS is a big one, MS / GS as well, CS must have the biggest hit relative to Nomura at $2B - we have to assume $8B to $12B hit across them all?
CDS was telling us something Friday.. Credit leads equities..
1. No one knows how big he was or how levered. 2. Have to assume goldman went first and protected itself. MS not far behind.— but with bigger exposure could have a loss. Those that acted slower (nomura, cs) probably left holding the bag???
(3)
- relative value rates, sell-off in 5s vs rest of the curve, US treasuries.
*in both cases too much capital was hiding out in crowded venues.
When central banks do NOT allow the business cycle to function over longer and longer periods of time - the good news is wealth creation becomes colossal. Bad news is Capital moves into crowded venues, poised for disruption.
(2)
In rates, as the bond market sold-off. Originally, the long end 30s was deemed at risk, capital moved into 10s, 7s, a “safe” place. As selling pressure moved into the middle part of the curve, trillions moved into the front-end looking for duration risk shelter.
(3)