Thread by @CasMudde

As expected, after being kicked out of EPP (finally), Orbán is trying to merge ECR and ID (under his leadership). This "Joint Declaration on the Future of the European Union" looks like important first step, but various parties of groups are (still) missing.

Ok, some quick thoughts:

1. A detail for most, perhaps, but the fact that the key unit is the "nation", not the "state", is very significant within the far right. It's quite interesting that state nationalists like FdI, RN and Vox have signed on to this.

2. There long has been schism between "ethnic nationalists", who prefer the "nation" (cultural), and "state nationalists, who prefer the "state" (political). They have long worked together but with tensions (FN-VB).

3. Fact that "nations" are so prominent in statement might reflect Hungary's role. For Hungarian nationalists, Hungarian nation is much larger than Hungarian state and they haven't given up on all territory. #TrianonTrauma

4. In addition to irredentism of Hungarian nationalists, Flemish separatists reject Belgian STATE for Flemish NATION -- Lega used to do this too, before Salvini's Italian turn.

5. So, who is missing?

From ID:
AfD 🇩🇪
PVV 🇳🇱
SPD 🇨🇿

From ECR:
HKS 🇨🇿
NA 🇱🇻
N-VA 🇧🇪
ODS 🇨🇿
SaS 🇸🇰
SD 🇸🇪
SGP 🇳🇱

6. Some might be due to strategic considerations -- SD lays low because of possible upcoming elections -- but others show limits of ECR+ group. For NA, N-VA, ODS, SaS, group with RN etc. is probably step too far.

7. While this is a significant step forward to ECR-ID merger, notably by including PiS, there are still many steps to take. And it could very easily still fail. Many usual issues play a role.

8. Most notably, leadership. ID and predecessors has always been dominated by FN (now RN). While it has shared some power with Lega, it is still a very West European group.

9. ECR is ideologically much looser and still looking for clear leadership and ideology in the post-Brexit period, when ECR Group lost Tories (who remain important in ACRE). Power has shifted east, to PiS, since.

10. This new ECR+ group would have its main power in the East, with Hungary-Poland tandem, at least until Lega-FdI come to power in Italy. Partly different cultures and concerns than some West European parties.

11. Perhaps most importantly, there are very important tensions about foreign policy, most notably between anti-Russian parties (notably PiS) and pro-Russian parties (norably Fidesz and Lega). #TheEnd

12. I almost forgot, this reads very much like a "Reform EU" document, not a "Leave EU" document. Again, very much in line with Fidesz/PiS.

Well, well, well, seems like there is some angst within ECR hold-outs.