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Jack Sommers

2 Jul, 4 tweets, 2 min read

On 6/5 Arizona had
36% fully vaxxed
47% at least 1 dose
46% of all adults full vax
69% of 65 & older

Today numbers have increased marginally
43% fully vaxxed
51% at least 1 dose
54% of all adults full vax
73% of 65 & older

At least 1 dose only increased 4%
(all #'s rounded)

Source for previous tweet
npr.org/sections/healt…

Also even if fully vaccinated there's still a chance, albeit small, that one can become hospitalized. Roughly 4000 out of 150 million vaccinated Americans have been hospitalized, (half over 65). Nothing is perfect. We still need to take other precautions
forbes.com/sites/brucelee…

99% of those currently in hospital or dying with Covid are unvaccinated.
thedenverchannel.com/news/national/…

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Jack Sommers

@shoewizard59

3 Jul

Stat Cast Pitch framing, #Diamondbacks. Largely neutral according to this version of the metric

Fangraphs version slightly negative for #DBacks. -2.4 in total

Baseball Reference also has them -2 in total

Read 5 tweets

Jack Sommers

@shoewizard59

3 Jul 20

@chrismartenson

I believe #SarsCov2 #Covid19 came from a Lab. I saw a clear breakdown on why this is likely in a video from @chrismartenson from Peak Prosperity a couple of months ago. Now he is backed up by a world renown biologist.

minervanett.no/corona/the-mos…

This is discussed in this video at the 37:56 point. (Although you should listen to entire video)

Here is the video from early May with detailed breakdown when Chris first made his case.

Read 10 tweets

Jack Sommers

@shoewizard59

14 May 20

Thread 1/8
Data shows wearing Facemasks Saves Lives

Data in thread primarily from worldometers.info/coronavirus/ taken 9:30-10:30 A.M. AZ Time today. I filled in where needed through various other resources. Let’s start with comparing East Asia to USA

2/8
East Asian Countries in 1st table have mask wearing cultures to begin with due to Sars outbreak experience in 2003 and also Pollution problems. They were early adapters as the Pandemic got underway to achieve population wide use of Facemasks to stop the spread of Covid-19

3/8
One can clearly see a miniscule death rate compared to USA, even in Japan. I use death rate instead of case rates due to large differences in testing rates, timing of the testing, (early vs. late) and effectiveness of contract tracing and quarantines

Read 11 tweets

Jack Sommers

@shoewizard59

9 May 20

Possible Mortality Range of Covid-19 by time reach Herd Immunity. Don't know what % required to reach but most estimates 60-70%. Don't know % W/antibodies today. Varies greatly by region. But if you believe 70% Herd required and 10% w/antibody (Ex.) then u can get a number

For AZ, current % showing positive in Antibody testing is 3.5%, so even less than 5%. It's unlikely in any scenario that there are more than 10-15% w/Antibodies in AZ. Green number represents best case mortality by time reach Herd, and Red Number represents pessimistic estimate

For USA in total, I slide the range over to the right on the matrix, as the assumption is that densely populated areas in the east have higher % of people w/Antibodies. So this method gives you Est. of 238K-555K deaths by time we reach herd immunity

Read 10 tweets

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