Thread by @COVID19actuary

Update on COVID hospital admissions and deaths in England.

Admissions are rising sharply again with another jump today to 331. This takes the daily average to 244 - up by 30% in the last week. 1/n

This is an “R-like” estimate based on hospital admissions. With a reducing proportion of infections turning into admissions, it probably understates R slightly.

This shows that the rate of increase in admissions is itself increasing - admissions are accelerating. 2/n

Almost all English regions are now showing strong increases in hospital admissions over the past week, the exception being the East of England. 3/n

Daily hospital deaths are still very low so the daily numbers are volatile but it’s clear they are trending up. The daily average has increased by 9% in the last week.

The purple estimates are based on the pattern of reporting delays in the last two months. 4/n

We will add further analysis later today on age distribution and numbers in hospital. 5/n

In response to several requests, here is the total number of hospital beds occupied. This lags hospital admissions but is also now clearly increasing, having risen by 25% in the last week. The proportion of patients in mechanical ventilation beds has also risen slightly. 6/n

Final update today is on age distribution of hospital admissions. These show counts and proportions of admissions in each age band. It’s clear there are far fewer admissions now from older groups, more likely to be fully vaccinated. We don’t have more granular ages than “18-64”.

For more detailed discussion on the data presented in this thread see our latest blog.

covid-arg.com/post/accelerat…