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Katy Hayward

@hayward_katy

30 Jun

@PostBrexitGovNI

So the #Protocol is the talk of the town today, but what do the people most affected by it actually think about it?!

We @PostBrexitGovNI thought that was worth finding out. So we’re running polls in NI with @LucidTalk 📊

Here’s the 2nd one –

qub.ac.uk/sites/post-bre…

1/8

HEADLINE: NI is divided over the subject, believe it or not.

47% think Protocol is appropriate; 47% disagree.

What's interesting is that this split hasn’t changed much since last poll in March.

Most think NI needs specific arrangements but they disagree over the Protocol.

2/8

The majority (57%) think there are economic opportunities for NI from the Protocol, but right now, the predominant view of its current impact is negative.

This graph shows positive-minus-negative results 👇

41% say Protocol has a positive impact on NI economy, 48% disagree.
3/8

Read 8 tweets

Katy Hayward

@hayward_katy

25 Jun

@ARK_info

Why are post-Brexit N.Ireland politics so fraught?

There’s some illuminating data in @ARK_info NI Life&Times survey

We’ve asked Qs since 2016 on perceived impact of #Brexit on the prospect of Irish unification

This thread & @UKandEU blog explain:
ukandeu.ac.uk/northern-irela…

1/6

In 2016, a clear majority in NI thought #Brexit made no difference to likelihood of Irish unity or their views about it.

#Unionists didn’t want or expect it.

#Nationalists wanted it but didn’t expect it any time soon.

Those who were ‘Neither’ didn't think it changed much.

2/6

By end 2020, the majority in NI think #Brexit makes a united Ireland more likely.

Nationalists' expectations grew steeply over the 5 yrs

A less steep but similar trajectory for Neithers

Over 2020, i.e. post-WA, the largest proportion of unionists came to believe this too

3/6

Read 6 tweets

Katy Hayward

@hayward_katy

21 Apr

@PostBrexitGovNI

*POLLING!📊*
The NI/IRL #Protocol is a hot topic, at least in NI at the moment.

But we haven’t really known what people actually think about it… Until now!!

We've results of the 1st detailed opinion poll on the #Protocol for @PostBrexitGovNI project (give us a follow).

1/7

@LucidTalk

The poll used @LucidTalk opinion panel (thanks guys).

Weighted sample n.2156, margin of error -/+ 2-3%.

It’s the first of polls to be done every 4m for this @ESRC project led by @DPhinnemore @QUBelfast.

Poll conducted 24-28 March, so before unrest.

Headline results:
2/7

Overall we see strong divisions of opinion over the #Protocol.
Most think #Brexit is not a good thing for UK.
Most (2/3) respondents think NI needs particular arrangements through Brexit.
But then they're fairly split over whether the Protocol is appropriate or good.

3/7

Read 7 tweets

Katy Hayward

@hayward_katy

25 Feb

The DUP & ERG claim there's an alternative to the #Protocol: ‘Mutual enforcement’.

Whilst it is a clever name (implying cooperation+ tough action), in reality it is really not viable.
Here's a brief thread.

TLDR: 'taking back control' was so 2016.

1/6
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/…

The primary intention of this model is to see the #border for the movement of goods shift from the Irish Sea to the Irish land border.

But to keep that border ‘invisible’, it has UK&IRL authorities enforcing the rules of the other jurisdiction.
🪄

2/6
centreforbrexitpolicy.org.uk/wp-content/upl…

Leaving all other considerations aside, it has to address the cornerstones of border management👇

We can see that it fails on all of them, i.e. there is no border to speak of.

It claims to work by ‘inverting the usual approach to customs enforcement’. This is indeed true😬

3/6

Read 6 tweets

Katy Hayward

@hayward_katy

7 Jan

@uuponline

A thread on the #Brexit dish of the day:
Article 16 of the NI/IRL #Protocol.

There’s momentum (👋@uuponline @duponline) gathering behind the idea that the UK Govt should trigger safeguard measures re: the Protocol.

(Yes, already)

Why so, & what might it do?
TL;DR: zilch

1/11

First, why the calls for it?
Well.
#Brexit means change to UK-EU trade, & the #Protocol means that that is taking effect down the Irish Sea.

There was too little time & too little info to prepare.

There are [wholly predictable] consequences.
🛃
2/11

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe…

Why invoke #Art16 of the Protocol?

It allows unilateral #safeguard measures - a common/necessary feature in trade agmts.

The purpose is to create a temporary breathing space in response to an unforeseen & sudden negative effect arising from the agmt.

Here's what it says👇
3/11

Read 11 tweets

Katy Hayward

@hayward_katy

29 Dec 20

"Cut-out-and-keep" ✂️📌

A 4-tweet thread for every person living in N.Ireland who might well wonder what #Brexit means in practical terms.

Travelling, studying, working, driving, shopping, roaming in the EU after 1st Jan... & what will change on the island of Ireland too.

1/4

Those born in N.Ireland have a birthright to Irish citizenship, & Irish citizens retain EU citizenship rights.

Because Brexit means #Brexit, British citizens no longer have those rights, & there will be a change in visiting, staying and working in the EU after 1st January.

2/4

But regardless of citizenship, there are big changes ahead in practical matters.

Those in NI are affected by the terms of the UK-EU Trade & Cooperation Agreement...
But there are also some differences for those in NI.
💳🧑‍🎓🐕🐈‍⬛

3/4

Read 4 tweets

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