The issues around the NI Protocol come back to the 80:20 rule:

If you don't do it right and only spend 20% of the time negotiating, you'll spend 80% of time implementing and fixing.

Look at the language here

/1

irishtimes.com/opinion/david-…
"We expected", "we assumed".

Did you not have any conversations about how it would look in practice? What facilitating trade means and what cheks can be simplified?

Why not?

/2
The requirement to treat the movement of goods into Northern Ireland as if they were crossing the EU external border is implied in the Protocol and results from applying customs legislation to NI and placing the border in the Irish Sea.

/3
True, it's not explicitly mentioned with a full list of checks or formalities. But I really cannot imagine that during the negotiations or even the JC talks there was no discussion about what applying customs legislation to NI meant.

/4
I see 2 options here:

1⃣ UK Gov knew, didn't accept and hoped it can try to renegotiate/bend afterwards

or

2⃣ UK Gov genuinely didn't know what it agreed to and didn't listen to anyone trying to explain the implications

/5
My money is on 1⃣ and the fact that the criticism of the Protocol, refusal to implement, resistance and just generally playing for time were always part of the plan.

That making the Protocol unworkable might have always been the goal.

/6
A way to force the EU into a solution that was not on the table during the actual Protocol negotiations.

By being obstructive, by blaming, by playing on deep divisions in NI.

/7
Why else would Frost mention that cancer medicine cannot get licensed in NI as a result of the Protocol (emotive and cheap argument) when it's this Gov that agreed and signed the Protocol?

Not even the smallest sign of ownership. As if the Protocol happened to someone else

/8
If the medicine cannot get licensed it's a direct consequence of what this Gov has negotiated and signed plus the failure to clarify how that would work in practice and to ensure that the Protocol works for the UK.

/9
If it was written by smn else perhaps.

But having the minister in charge of finding the solution demonstrate such levels of deflection and inflammatory rhetoric just shows me to what extent we normalised such behaviour over the last 5 years.

/10
Meanwhile, the consequences of this ongoing dispute are felt by the traders, consumers and ppl of NI.

Do better!

/11
*caveat*

I do agree that the solution requires a practical and flexible approach to formalities and checks and that there is a need for both sides to compromise.

But as I've written before the UK is going about it in the worst possible way.

12/12

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More from @AnnaJerzewska

1 Jul
One more point re yesterday's session.

Every single proposal for an “invisible” NI border has the same problem. Every single time smn tries to rethink border formalities and eliminate the dreaded customs “checks” they fall into the same 3⃣ pitfalls.

Every single time.

/1
1⃣ Focus on checks and not formalities

Typical mistake – thinking that removing checks “solves” the border. It doesn’t. Checks are rarely the problem. They are a small part of work and costs for traders.

/2
2⃣ Not removing checks just shifting them to a different time / place

The need for checks and verification stays. Especially when proposals suggest making non-compliance a criminal offence – that requires enforcement, which requires checks.

/3
Read 5 tweets
25 Jun
The only thing I would add is that I think that “defending the integrity of SM” at the end of the day wasn’t about the details- checks and formalities. It's a concept.

The EU was/is after the one thing that the UK does not want to provide – reassurance and certainty.

/1
Reassurance that the UK understands that this integrity, as @Mij_Europe points out, is fundamental to the politics of some of the big players.

The certainty that the UK will be a serious partner in implementing the Protocol.

But what does that mean in practice?

/2
Respecting certain principles, dependencies and trade-offs? – Yes.

That some derogations and simplifications would not be possible on the ground? I don’t think so.

Why? – customs.

/3
Read 11 tweets
23 Jun
🚛 Here is an interesting fact - it’s end of June and we don’t yet have a functioning border management system.

Remember the Goods Vehicle Movement Service (GVMS)? The system that was supposed to be first implemented in January to manage our borders?

/1
Remember how we all talked about the fact that you don’t build IT systems in a few months? That they require testing etc? And how Gov was sure it will be ready?

It wasn’t ready so the full implementation was pushed back to June.

/2
A while back, together with all the announcements around further easements and extensions, GVMS was pushed back to Jan 2022.

/3
Read 6 tweets
22 Jun
An article on the top 5 benefits of joining the CPTPP written by the UK's Chief Negotiator for accession to CPTPP - so basically the right person to ask.

Read it carefully cause the wording is very important here.

/1


linkedin.com/pulse/top-5-be…
It kind of hints at opportunities rather than promises results.

Important to remember that some companies will be in a position to profit from these benefits and others will not.

/2
E.e.
“could boost UK exports” - doesn’t mean that it will, there is potential but it will depend on a range of company/industry-specific factors

“will make it simpler for the UK to sell services” – relative to now and subject to conditions in the text.

/3
Read 5 tweets
22 Jun
So the UK started the CPTPP negotiations today. And the benefits of joining according to Gov's own estimates are... moderate at best... 0.08%.

And that is if they have taken into account all the bilateral deals that the UK already has with CPTPP members

/1
These deals will take away from the impact of the CPTPP.

Joe also mentioned the caveat in the report.
Measuring the impact of FTAs before they are implemented or negotiated is tricky and can only provide a rough estimate.

/2


CGE modelling is static and doesn't take all the expected benefits of an FTA into account.

Given all the bilateral deals joining the CPTPP is mostly around strategic and geopolitical objectives.

Plus regional cumulation, some stuff on digital and other bits and pieces.

/3
Read 8 tweets
20 Jun
Yet again I have to ask - how is this so much of a surprise?

The referendum took place 5 years ago, almost to the day. And yet it seems that ppl are only now realising what are the effects of leaving the EU.

/1


bbc.com/news/uk-englan…
See the quote below.

From the moment the UK settled on an FTA- style relationship it was clear that various border formalities will be required.

There are strict rules around moving live animals into the EU from the outside.

/2
They are incredibly labour-intensive and come with plenty of extra costs.

They have also been around for a while AND the UK applied these rules to imports from 3rd countries when it was a member of the EU.

And yet...

/3
Read 8 tweets

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