Share this page!

Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
Twitter logo
24 Jun, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Short THREAD:
New studies on Long covid in England & Norway show high burden of long term issues - inc young adults.

UK has had 260K confirmed cases since 1st May (80K last 7 days). Even at lower end of 30% growth per week, that's about another 650K cases in next 4 weeks. 1/4
So by end of July we could easily have had 1 million new infections since 1 May - mostly in younger people.

Norway study reported 20% of 16-30 yr olds still had fatigue at 6 months. More than 10% had cognitive or memory issues. 2/4
So even a v. conservative estimate is that by the end of July, tens of thousands more young people will be living with ongoing fatigue or memory issues.

Please stop saying that infections that don't result in hospitalisations are fine.don't matter. They do. 3/4
Norway study here:
nature.com/articles/s4159…

England study here: spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/1004…

Guardian summary here:
theguardian.com/society/2021/j… 4/4

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Prof. Christina Pagel

Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @chrischirp

Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
25 Jun
THREAD on cases in UK:

Since Delta became dominant in the UK and the opening of indoor spaces in England and the other home nations in May, cases have rapidly increased. 1/14
Cases & positivity rates (showing that it's not just more testing) are going up in all nations except N Ireland (where Delta is not yet dominant).

See same picture in ONS infection survey released today.
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… 2/14
Still driven by regional hotspots in Scotland and England.

In England the NW remains a hotspot, but cases now also rapidly rising in NE, Yorks & Humber & Cornwall.

But most local authorities in Wales, Scot & Eng are going up. 3/14
Read 15 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
21 Jun
1. LONG THREAD (25+ tweets sorry) of my somewhat depairing musings on Covid.

Where we are, how we got here, why I'm sad about it.
2. So I downloaded latest Sanger data on variants for England today after 2 weeks away.

Delta (B.1.617.2) is now at well over 90% of all sequence cases in Englandand Alpha (B.1.1.7, prev "Kent") is dying out.
3. Dominant in every region - some took longer to get there but all are at or over 90% now.
Read 30 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
15 Jun
THREAD on England short term Covid outlook:

Thread on some of the implications of latest SAGE SPI-M models about English roadmap, step 4 & Delta.

TLDR: medium term v uncertain but in short term expect hospital admissions to keep rising.
2. They point out that current increase in cases will only stop if at least one of below happens:
1) people change their behaviour
2) govt changes policy (more restrictions and/or more public health interventions)
3) enough immunity is built up (through vax or infection)
3. Govt is basically doing 3 -> trying to get as many people fully vaxxed as fast as possible & tolerating high infections in younger people in the meantime.

It also delayed step 4 deciding (wisely!) that throwing petrol onto the fire wasn't a good idea.
Read 23 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
15 Jun
SHORT THREAD on the US & Covid:

The US has made rapid progress in vaccinating its population, and supply is not an issue.

But demand has steadily fallen since April. The UK meanwhile has kept up a more constant rate of vaccination - we've not exhausted our demand yet! 1/5
And this is translating into population coverage.

The UK is ahead of the US now in both first doses *and* people fully vaccinated (even with our longer interval between doses) - and our coverage is increasing faster than the US. 2/5
The US has more vaccine hesistancy than the UK and this is now making itself felt - with particularly Republican states having lower rates of vaccine uptake.

States are trying to incentivise vaccination through prizes, food, beer...

newsweek.com/states-sending… 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
4 Jun
Here are cases in 4 regions - all showing highest rates in secondary school children - and increasing and moving up to adults over time too.
Here is data from PHE yesterday showing the the *top activity* by far for new confirmed cases was a child in school.
Data from a couple of weeks ago showing the incredibly high rates of infection in secondary school age children in variant hotspots - higher than their equally unvaccinated older counterparts.
Read 5 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
31 May
THREAD Some back of the envelope examples about how things could get difficult even with vaccination.

This is *no* replacement for the proper SAGE Spi-M models but gives you the idea. (11 tweets)
Between Oct & early Jan there were about 2.3 million confirmed cases of Covid, 135K hospital admissions & 28K deaths. Hardly anyone was vaccinated.

If we had a similar situation now but WITH vaccination then cases would be lower & admissions (~25K) & deaths (~3K) MUCH lower.
I think this is what most people have in their minds when they don't believe it could get bad this summer.

And if cases on same or lower scale then that is true - vaccination (particularly of vulnerable) protects us & the NHS.
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @chrischirp has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @chrischirp!

Read all threads by @chrischirp

:(