On Children and Long Covid.
No. You are being disingenuous with these studies. We agree the Swiss study is worthless because of type 2 error. Let us now look at the Zoe and the Australia studies...(1)
People are rightly worried about Long Covid and possible effects on children's developing brains. The Zoe study shows 4.4% of 1,734 infected children (588 younger 1,146 older children) get headache, fatigue and anosmia (three neurological signs) lasting more than one month. (2)
Worrying. If children are now to be exposed to infection by the UK government failure with public health/vaccination measures, + say another 50% of children up to 16 become infected, we're looking at 8.8 million x 0.5 x 0.044 = 193,600 kids facing prolonged symptoms. (3)
And what about the recent Lancet Oxford/Imperial study of adults showing brain changes in many infected adults? We don't know what is happening to the brains of children yet. More worry. (4) iflscience.com/brain/covid19-…
Then you say that 'severity of symptoms was worse in the comparator group' but don't mention these were just 15 children, or 0.9% i.e FIVE times less than the affected positive children. So I am not reassured at all. The Zoe study is actually worrying. (5)
So what about the 'larger, well-conducted' Australia study? It's not a paper. It's a letter discussing follow-up of 171 kids from a tertiary hospital, 95% with mild disease or no symptoms. Two had inflammatory syndrome. 12 (8%) of children had longer term symptoms, gone by 6m.(6)
None of these studies give us a reliable estimate of Long Covid, but all show more than 2% of children had prolonged symptoms. So what does the ONS data tell us with their very large datasets? They looked at 313,000 people aged 2 or over, surveyed in the month to June 6. (7)
On July 1 the new data shows 962,000 people in private households in the UK (1.5% of the population) were experiencing self-reported "long COVID" (symptoms persisting for more than four weeks). (8) ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
856,000 (89.0%) first had (or suspected they had) COVID-19 at least 12 weeks previously, and 385,000 (40.0%) first had (or suspected they had) COVID-19 at least one year previously. (9)
They estimate that 13000 children aged 2-11, 20,000 aged 12-16 and 71,000 aged 17-24 had Long Covid of any duration. Most in these 3 age groups had had symptoms for AT LEAST 12 weeks (10,000, 16000, 65000 respectively). (10)
Perhaps most worrying is that the latest UK Long Covid estimate for children aged 12-16 who experience prolonged symptoms for at least ONE YEAR is 0.12% (0.06-0.17) or 1 in 830, with possible but unknown effects on developing brain structure based on recent adult studies. (11)
Despite the extremely low risk of myocarditis in vaccinated children, all of whom recovered, the USA, European Union, Israel + others judge benefit-risk to strongly favour vaccination of older children. The UK is an outlier. Why are we exposing children to these risks? (12)
The argument to donate our children's vaccines supplies to Africa are spurious. Africa needs technology transfer, a patent waiver + finance so their companies can make their own vaccines. Not almost expired donations from the G7 +UK, which blocked the patent waiver. (13)
Worse, the government boast it is good to 'live with the virus', Minister Javid, 'it's good for our health', + SAGE/NERVTAG advisers on TV say children have a very mild illness. We need to look at the population data evidence, not clinical opinions. There are real risks (14)

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More from @globalhlthtwit

6 Jul
The story so far. About the failure of public health. Not masks. Look at the death rates in China (pop 1.4bn), Vietnam (100m), USA (340m) and UK (68m). Yes, you cannot see the death curves in the first two because they are so low. (1) Image
Our leaders/advisers said you cannot suppress this virus. China and Vietnam did. Then they said these countries will inevitably face a huge second wave. They haven't - just smaller outbreaks that they jump on with good public health implemented by people on the ground. (2)
We were forced into prolonged national lockdowns. Hugely damaging to livelihoods, the economy and mental health. None of the Asian states had national lockdowns, only local ones. Their economies had ten times less damage. (3)
Read 20 tweets
4 Jul
Several scientists are referring to an unreviewed short Swiss paper to support the idea that Long Covid in children is minimal. medrxiv.org/content/10.110… (1)
The authors correctly point out "limitations include the relatively small number of seropositive children, possible misclassification of some false seropositive children, potential recall bias, parental report of child’s symptoms, and lack of information on symptom severity" (2)
The paper reports on just 109 children picked up as seropositive compared with 1246 negatives. No conclusions can be drawn because of classic type 2 error: failure to reject a false null hypothesis because of an underpowered study. (3)
Read 6 tweets
30 Jun
I agree with you Rob about the severe social + educational impacts of lockdowns which children in countries that suppressed the virus with strong local public health measures to suppress infection have avoided. (1)
But look at the figures from your own pre-print study. 5.1% of 12-17yo positivecases had symptoms lasting over a month, with at least 4 out of five having neurological symptoms (2)
A recent study of 394 + and 388 Covid - adult controls who had brain scans before the pandemic and after showed loss of brain cortex tissue in taste and smell areas of the brain in + cases. (3) medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Read 11 tweets
17 Jun
We were told you cannot suppress Covid so "we must live with the virus". When Asian states did suppress Covid19, within a month by early March 2020, SAGE were 'unanimous' that these states would face a huge second wave. Here are the cases in UK, S Korea and China: (1)
...and here are the deaths (2)
And here is a comparison of death rates in countries that did and did not suppress the virus with effective find, test and supported isolation programmes. (3)
Read 13 tweets
8 Jun
Modelling is very tricky right now. It's very difficult to predict the future given uncertainty about transmission of the delta variant, the impact of behaviour changes and levels of population immunity. I'm not a modelIer so here are some differing views (1)
The original Warwick model from the government SPI(M) committee gave a very pessimistic view of the impact of a 40% increase in transmission on hospital admissions...and many think the increase is now 70%. But they are currently revising their model. (2)
This latest thread from mathematician James Ward is interesting and expresses uncertainties clearly. (3)
Read 8 tweets
7 Jun
Watching Ruth Davidson’s excellent documentary on Footballs Gambling Addiction. Shows how our children are being led into addiction in order to fund the Premier League. “A parasite taking over the host”, we need to protect children. cap-2030.org
I’m proud that my team @MillwallFC has never had a shirt sponsored by a gambling company.
On average there is one gambling related suicide every DAY in the UK.
Read 4 tweets

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