The story so far. About the failure of public health. Not masks. Look at the death rates in China (pop 1.4bn), Vietnam (100m), USA (340m) and UK (68m). Yes, you cannot see the death curves in the first two because they are so low. (1)
Our leaders/advisers said you cannot suppress this virus. China and Vietnam did. Then they said these countries will inevitably face a huge second wave. They haven't - just smaller outbreaks that they jump on with good public health implemented by people on the ground. (2)
We were forced into prolonged national lockdowns. Hugely damaging to livelihoods, the economy and mental health. None of the Asian states had national lockdowns, only local ones. Their economies had ten times less damage. (3)
Then our leaders/advisers set up a privatised, call centre public health system quite unlike anything the many successful Asian and other states did. And separate from our unfunded local public health teams. It couldn't possibly work. It didn't. (4)
They refused to give any financial support to poor people in case "they gamed the system". So poor families had to game the test and trace system so they could keep working. Without 'national lockdowns' the virus just spread. (5)
But leaders/advisers stuck throughout to their belief that waves could not be controlled or suppressed. We could only have huge modelled waves and long national lockdowns until we got a vaccine. (6)
The vaccine arrived with a huge wave of nationalistic fervour. We are 'world-beating'. This time, luckily, the NHS stepped in to roll-out the vaccines. But local authorities and public health remained deprived of any financial support while £38 billion went private. (7)
The £38 billion spent on consultants, cronys, private test companies, and an array of unapproved tests, is equivalent to ten years of funds for the whole UK public health programme. (8)
The third lockdown now ends in a staggered roadmap. Sir Patrick Vallance is alone in saying find, test, trace and isolate is crucial when case rates fall to low levels. In May cases fall to 1800 per day. But no changes r made to an ineffective system. So another wave begins. (9)
July 19 'freedom day' we shall have 50,000 cases per day say the leaders/advisers. But we can now 'live with the virus' because we are all vaccinated. Well, except children. And actually, only about half are fully protected with vaccines. Yes, admissions +deaths will go up. (10)
Vaccine escape science is ignored. Long Covid kept quiet. And its fine for 8.8 million children to be infected. Even though every other wealthy country is vaccinating them because benefits clearly outweigh the risks. No, lets give kid's vaccines to Africa say advisers. (11)
But the UK government already hosted a G7 meeting in Cornwall at which people hoped they will solve the global vaccine shortage. President Biden says share the patent with all countries so they can make the vaccine. Er... No say the UK, Germany and Canada. (12)
Yes, 95% plus of the money to develop the vaccines came from the public purse. But No we must protect the shareholders of big pharma companies. So a million people must die every month to sustain free markets. New variants must emerge so Big Pharma can make new vaccines. (13)
And no new G7 money is committed to Covax. And the main AZ franchise in India has its exports blocked. So Nepal, Bangladesh and the whole of Africa have virtually no vaccines. Tens of thousands die. Covax grinds to a halt. Cornwall superspreads. (14)
In the UK libertarian public health 'living with the virus' means that we must not compromise people's freedom to do what they like. If they prefer to cough and sneeze in a crowded train of commuters who must go to work, so be it. (15)
Altruism must die. Because our banker health Minister is devoted to a dead, liberalist philosopher and screenwriter called Ayn Rand who once wrote a diatribe called 'The Virtue of Selfishness'. Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the law. (16)
If more porters, nurses, doctors, care workers, bus drivers, factory workers must be infected and die, so be it. Because there is nothing we can do. We must 'live with the virus' and show the world how Britain knows best. (17)
The NHS staff get a pay cut. 1% rise with 2.5% inflation, a pay cut. They must understand there are other priorities. A new SERCO contract. A £250 million royal yacht. (18)
And no one is accountable. Politicians say they follow the science. Advisers say Ministers must decide. No public inquiry, no resignations, a merry-go-round of Birthday Honours and George Crosses. Let's all forget about it and 'live with the virus'. Watch the football. (19)
So that's what I'm doing. Fully vaccinated I contracted Covid a week ago. Not pleasant. Isolating. And listening to the radio, to experts who say we're in 'the endgame', how well we've done, we can get back to normal. Er.. and wear a face mask if you're worried. (20)

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More from @globalhlthtwit

4 Jul
On Children and Long Covid.
No. You are being disingenuous with these studies. We agree the Swiss study is worthless because of type 2 error. Let us now look at the Zoe and the Australia studies...(1)
People are rightly worried about Long Covid and possible effects on children's developing brains. The Zoe study shows 4.4% of 1,734 infected children (588 younger 1,146 older children) get headache, fatigue and anosmia (three neurological signs) lasting more than one month. (2)
Worrying. If children are now to be exposed to infection by the UK government failure with public health/vaccination measures, + say another 50% of children up to 16 become infected, we're looking at 8.8 million x 0.5 x 0.044 = 193,600 kids facing prolonged symptoms. (3)
Read 15 tweets
4 Jul
Several scientists are referring to an unreviewed short Swiss paper to support the idea that Long Covid in children is minimal. medrxiv.org/content/10.110… (1)
The authors correctly point out "limitations include the relatively small number of seropositive children, possible misclassification of some false seropositive children, potential recall bias, parental report of child’s symptoms, and lack of information on symptom severity" (2)
The paper reports on just 109 children picked up as seropositive compared with 1246 negatives. No conclusions can be drawn because of classic type 2 error: failure to reject a false null hypothesis because of an underpowered study. (3)
Read 6 tweets
30 Jun
I agree with you Rob about the severe social + educational impacts of lockdowns which children in countries that suppressed the virus with strong local public health measures to suppress infection have avoided. (1)
But look at the figures from your own pre-print study. 5.1% of 12-17yo positivecases had symptoms lasting over a month, with at least 4 out of five having neurological symptoms (2)
A recent study of 394 + and 388 Covid - adult controls who had brain scans before the pandemic and after showed loss of brain cortex tissue in taste and smell areas of the brain in + cases. (3) medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Read 11 tweets
17 Jun
We were told you cannot suppress Covid so "we must live with the virus". When Asian states did suppress Covid19, within a month by early March 2020, SAGE were 'unanimous' that these states would face a huge second wave. Here are the cases in UK, S Korea and China: (1)
...and here are the deaths (2)
And here is a comparison of death rates in countries that did and did not suppress the virus with effective find, test and supported isolation programmes. (3)
Read 13 tweets
8 Jun
Modelling is very tricky right now. It's very difficult to predict the future given uncertainty about transmission of the delta variant, the impact of behaviour changes and levels of population immunity. I'm not a modelIer so here are some differing views (1)
The original Warwick model from the government SPI(M) committee gave a very pessimistic view of the impact of a 40% increase in transmission on hospital admissions...and many think the increase is now 70%. But they are currently revising their model. (2)
This latest thread from mathematician James Ward is interesting and expresses uncertainties clearly. (3)
Read 8 tweets
7 Jun
Watching Ruth Davidson’s excellent documentary on Footballs Gambling Addiction. Shows how our children are being led into addiction in order to fund the Premier League. “A parasite taking over the host”, we need to protect children. cap-2030.org
I’m proud that my team @MillwallFC has never had a shirt sponsored by a gambling company.
On average there is one gambling related suicide every DAY in the UK.
Read 4 tweets

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