The 1993 to 2001 period in history isn't simple to explain. I'm not guessing since I was actually there. The era involved many simultaneous phenomena interacting to create a lollapalooza. If I had to select one triggering event it was creation of the commercial internet in 1993.
The triggering phenomena that created the commercial internet in 1993 were chips appearing in devices, running software and connected by wired and wireless networks. When this happened, many new ways to create value were possible and the process of sorting that out was exuberant.
People creating new value based on chips in devices connected by networks continues today ~ thirty years later. There's still a lot of exuberance as the efforts of businesses get sorted out. What's different? Central banks did not take interest rates to zero and beyond in 2001.
I'm currently on a boat on my way to my office because that is where there is fast Internet, I am doing so because a communications provider hasn't been able to buy a device with chips in it that would connect me to the Internet at my home. This picture is what I looking at now.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Tren Griffin

Tren Griffin Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @trengriffin

3 Jul
1/ "Our goal at SpaceX is not to go bankrupt," Elon Musk said at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona.

The most unknown and fundamental challenge with space-based businesses is economic. A survivable business model is a core element of product market fit. google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.…
2/ There's only one geostationary orbit, and that is over the equator at 36,000 kilometers. By contrast, SpaceX satellites orbit at about 500 kilometers. Everything in space (almost) involves tread offs. Close means better propagation but it's hard to offer committed data rates.
3/ With the combination of a high minimum vertical angle to low Earth orbit satellites--to overcome blocking and signal problems with Ka or Ku bands--and the low altitude, geometry takes over, and a constellation of hundreds of satellites is required to continuously cover Earth.
Read 10 tweets
30 Jun
1/ Buffett: "We learned a long time ago that you can't make a good deal with a bad person. Just forget it. Now, if you think you can draw up a contract that, that is going to work against a bad person, they're gonna win. They probably enjoy litigation." cnbc.com/2021/06/29/cnb…
2/ Buffett: "The bad guys win. They know more games. They may lose eventually. but it's no way to spend your life."

This interview was recorded after the annual meeting in May and only really covered new ground on Archegos. I need to read it to be able to summarize it for you.
3/ I've tried to make it seem like Buffett and Munger are on Twitter through me since it's educational for some people.

Why do I do this? It just happened as I saw people misinterpret.

If you think they are going to say something new every time in every comment, get serious.
Read 6 tweets
29 Jun
1/ Teledesic didn't go bankrupt as Elon claimed at Mobile World Congress today. The board of the company decided it could not be financed with an attractive outcome at that time and hundreds of millions of dollars of capital was returned to shareholders. 25iq.com/2016/07/23/a-d…
2/ Elon is just misinformed and I assume zeto ill intent on his part.

Teledesic cleared regulatory and other hurdles that make Starlink, OneWeb and Kuiper possible today. The Teledesic peak accomplishment was in 1995 at the WRC where the ITU allocation for NGSO FSS was obtained.
3/ What did Elon Musk say at MWC today? The link to his session is here: Listen carefully to what Starlink is designed for, especially who the target customers are and how capacity is distributed. The biggest challenge is creating a successful business.
Read 8 tweets
26 Jun
1/ A orders chips. Supplier says "supply is getting tight." A triples order to store them in a warehouse. Supplier tells other customers supply is even tighter. They order extra chips. Quickly there are more chips in warehouses than toilet paper in garages during the pandemic.
2/ Intel's Gelsinger: "I don’t expect the chip industry is back to a healthy supply-demand situation until ’23. For a variety of industries, I think it’s still getting worse before it gets better.”

Are chips in warehouses the prime cause of the shortage? No. Demand is higher.
3/ "Software eating the world" means rising demand for chips.

I'm skeptical that this increase in chip demand is "transitory."

Fabs and backhoes don't increase with Moore's law. hartenstein.de/EIS2/Nathans_L…
Read 10 tweets
24 Jun
1/ "We’ve successfully deployed 1,800 or so satellites and once all those satellites reach their operational orbit, we will have continuous global coverage, so that should be like September timeframe." SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell observer.com/2021/06/spacex…
2/ "Elon Musk will list SpaceX’s Starlink, when its cash flow is reasonably predictable, the billionaire entrepreneur said on Wednesday. 'Going public sooner than that would be very painful. Will do my best to give long-term Tesla shareholders preference.'"reuters.com/article/busine…
3/ Shotwell explained that the challenge in simply keeping humans alive in a human settlement on Mars or the moon would create plenty of infrastructure needs. "It’s the most extreme camping situation ever, where you have to bring your own air to breathe." afr.com/chanticleer/wh…
Read 9 tweets
22 Jun
1/ When you hear someone say "I don't do a DCF" what they often mean is they don't go through the valuation process you see in a sell-side investment banking report from an analyst based on SWAGs (silly wild ass guesses).

But rational investors still use a DCF based process.
2/ "Customer-based valuation refers to the use of customers as the atomic unit of analysis to estimate the valuation....determine the value at a customer level, and then scale that up to the number of customers to determine the overall value of a business."tanay.substack.com/p/customer-bas…
3/ "Customer lifetime values are dynamic: They are estimates applicable to a moment in time, and not completely precise."

"The value of a customer tends to be very sensitive to churn (existing customer lifetime is just 1/churn) and so be conservative when estimating churn."
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(