This graph shows a 7-day rolling average, so what we are seeing is not the "weekend effect" as the 7-day average takes that into account. This dip gives some hope!
However, it's too early to say if Gauteng has actually peaked - need to wait a few more days to confirm that..
Of course, we're not out of the woods either; the curve can turn upwards again at any time if there are any further spikes due to cluster outbreaks and possible superspreader events...
Also, the infection rate is still very high and risk remains high so need to remain vigilant...
Further, the rising national test positivity rate is still a concern but difficult to make any inference on Gauteng numbers from that due to the lack of provincial testing numbers
And even once we do peak, importantly we still have to make the downward journey and get through the wave. A peak would only indicate we're halfway there! And we still need every prayer.
How quickly that downward trend lasts is still up to us!
Hospitalisations and deaths still lag cases, so we will continue to see the healthcare facilities being stretched. A rise in hospitalisations can still be expected even for at least two weeks after cases start to decline..
Finally, deaths in Gauteng are rising sharply and will continue to rise. I'll share an update on this tomorrow...
There is some hope, but we must remain vigilant and play our part in getting through this difficult period! ππ½
β’ β’ β’
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
The 3rd wave of hospitalisations is here! #COVID19 numbers are about to exceed previous peaks. We're entering uncharted territory. How high we go is still up to us,and our collective behaviour! #Rid1TweetsonCovid
Gauteng is currently the epicentre of South Africa's 3rd wave, and the most populous province in SA πΏπ¦
There have been over 35000 new cases reported in Gauteng over the past 7 days, i.e. an average of over 5000 per day, up 88% compared to the previous week π
208 more deaths reported in South Africa today β οΈ
Reported deaths are always high on Tuesdays (post-weekend), but this is significantly higher and this is highest reported in months. Trend is clearly going up again π
Provincial update #COVID19 in South Africa πΏπ¦
Here's a look at the key metrics of case incidence and test positivity rate per province in South Africa π
Quite a lot going on between the provinces, so I'll make this a thread π
Let's start with good news!
Northern Cape and Free State showing promising signs of a decline. Both are still at very high case incidence rates,so certainly not out of the woods yet π
NC case incidence rose up to 1.5 times previous peak.
FS went up to 90% of 2nd wave's peak π
By province, NC and FS continue to increase further:
β’ NC incidence rate +60% or doubling every 10 days. Case incidence at 64% of its 2nd wave peak
β’ FS +23% week-on-week. Case incidence at 41% of its 2nd wave peak
β’ All other provinces stable with curves flat-lining this week
Rate of testing up +7% to ~29k tests per day over the past week. Nationally, the increase is testing has kept up with the increase in the rate of infections this week
Confirmed #COVID19 cases up in all 9 provinces this week, but 3 are of particular concern atm:
β’ NC +104% and incidence rate at 40% of its 2nd wave peak = 3rd wave/resurgence of 2nd wave
β’ FS +63% and incidence rate now at 33% of its 2nd wave peak = start of 3rd wave
β’ NW +57%
Trends in test positivity rates per province confirms the increase in infection rates in NC, FS and NW, with positivity rate in MP also of concern: