Thread by @john_lichfield

Weekly French Covid thread
Any hope of France containing the Delta variant can be abandoned. Delta’s share of new cases has doubled again in the last week to 40%. Case numbers and the incidence rate are climbing once more. The figures remain small but that won’t last.
1/10

President Macron has convened a meeting of the health defence council today. Apart from urging more people to get vaccinated (and those numbers are also rising again) it’s not clear what the government plans to do. No return to social restrictions is envisaged so far.
2/10

The daily average of cases in Fr. has risen to 2,534, from 1,835 a week ago. The incidence rate – cases per 100,000 people/7 days – was 24.1 on Sat, compared to 18.5 a week before. Overall numbers are not huge but they conceal strong surges in some areas and some age groups. 3/10

In Paris area the incidence rate has doubled in a week to 54.2. Among 20-somethings nationwide , the IR has jumped by 78% in a week; among teenagers by 34%. (See graph by @nicolasberrod).
Conclusion: Delta/end of lockdown mean the virus is booming again amongst the young.
4/10

The spread of Delta – 42% of new cases show the presence of a mutation which is most likely Delta – is also regionally varied. See map below. The Paris area, the SW and Nice-Marseille area are among the hot-spots. But so , for some reason, is my own département, Calvados.
5/10

Other figures remain good – partly because older and more vulnerable people are now so protected (80 pluses are 79.6% first vaxxed; 73/3% fully covered; 75-79’s 90.1% and 84.1% etc). Younger age groups need to get vaccinated fast.
6/10

The slump in 1st vaccinations continues but there are signs (such as a 40% boom in Doctolib appointments) that numbers will grow shortly.
The 2nd jab stats are good – around 500,000 a day.
Fr. now has nearly 35m first vaxxed (67% of adults) and 25.3m fully vaxxed (48.7%)
7/10

In terms of acute care and deaths, the pandemic remains at its lowest level for almost a year. Deaths are down to an average, 24.8 a day after 32, 42, 55, 67.8 and 119.8 in earlier weeks. There are 1,032 patients in acute care – compared to 6,000 in April.
8/10

One decision the Govt must take soon is whether to follow Germany’s lead and allow UK double-vaxxed visitors to come to Fr. with no quarantine. The UK is expected shortly to lift its own quarantine or arrivals from Fr (incl. returning UK tourists). Watch that space.
9/10

And hang in there.
10/10