Thread by @ploehmann

#swfc @KieranMaguire covers all the necessary ground in the article below from @AlexMiller91, and has even supplied headline numbers (

https://twitter.com/KieranMaguire/status/1412453209684197381?s=20

), but I thought I'd jump in with some projections for 20-21 and 21-22 to sort of tie a knot on things in the thread below.

https://twitter.com/AlexMiller91/status/1412461388904153092

I'm currently deep into writing a season review/preview thing that also has a lot of financial data and analysis - obviously needs tinkering now the accounts are out 😜

Enough pre-amble, here are some charts:

Revenue likely to be halved in 20-21 and decrease further in 21-22:

If we add on transfer fees received (and what can be assumed to be compensation fee for Steve Bruce), as well as likely Covid 19 furlough compensation, we're up to £13.6m of income in 20-21, which is still half 19-20's:

So revenue and income has dropped off, then.

But so have expenses, from £45m in 19-20 to £30m in 20-21 and, as things stand, £15m in 21-22.

"As things stand" means only the wages of the current 12 first teamers under contract is included, so it'll be more than £15m, though!

Relegation has freed us from our "Profitability & Sustainability"/FFP overlords and the stadium sale in 18-19 means we'll have no issues for 2017-20.

The new name of the game is "Salary Control Management Protocol" (SCMP):

3 out of every 4 pounds revenue can be spent on wages.

With a projected £8.4m of revenue our limit for wages is £6.3m.

The 12 senior players under contract currently (July 7th) cost £5.7m in wages, so on the surface that's just £600k below the allowed limit:

An average established League One footballer is estimated to earn between £100k-£150k a year, so given that we can sign 4-6 established League One footballers without breaking the rules.

The sounds from within the club, according to local media, have been that the target is around 5-6 signings.

The above may explain why the players linked are all young and some even unestablished in senior football: They're inexpensive in wages.

But:

@KieranMaguire says SCMP is full of loopholes (

https://twitter.com/KieranMaguire/status/888394306372988930?s=20

).

1) only 50% of wages of player-coaches count towards SCMP.

2) on top of 75% of revenue, clubs can spend 100% of transfer fees received and 100% cash injections (not loans or shares!) from an owner.

So we can "spend what we want" provided Chansiri gifts the club money rather than loans it money or buys new shares in the club.

And we can spend more if we sell players with Windass, Iorfa and Bannan all either subject of bids or interest from the Championship.

Chansiri's combined investment 2015-2020 is £134m and I'd estimate £161m at the end of July 2021.

During Chansiri's time as legal owner he has, on average, invested £70,000 every single day (although it has slowed considerably, as costs have been cut, since 2018):

Report card time: I wasn't as precise with my 19-20 projections as I was for 18-19, but still within a reasonable range; certainly close enough to make projecting future financial numbers worthwhile:

If you would like to support me and see more stuff like the above I'll ask you kindly to consider donating a small amount to me via Ko-fi:
ko-fi.com/ploehmann

I'll still annoy you regularly with far too many charts even if you don't 😁

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