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Dr Anna Jerzewska Profile picture
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8 Jul, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Watching Rt Hon Brandon Lewis and Rt Hon Lord Frost talk about the NI Protocol.

None of the consequences listed should come as a surprise to a Gov that's done its due diligence on the Protocol before signing it.

/1

policyexchange.org.uk/pxevents/brand…
Lord Godson's comment that the integrity of SM and NI's position in the UK's internal market are hard to reconcile is spot on. This is exactly where the difficulty is. That is why this was always going to be a difficult process and why there aren't any easy ways out of this.

/2
It's a shame there isn't a bit more transparency around this process. Lewis mentioned a number of UK proposals that the EU did not engage with.

Is that the Trusted Trader?

/3
Frost referred to the initial hope that the Protocol will be implemented in a pragmatic and flexible way and I think that continues to be the main problem - the 80:20 principle and the fact that implementation was not sufficiently discussed at the time
/4
I sincerely hope that it was just a slip of the tongue and the fact that tariffs are not the only problem isn't something that the Gov "learned in the last few months"

Given that it's a well-known trade fact.

/5
Frost's comment that the EU "spent too much time guessing what we thought and not enough time looking at what we said" is interesting.
This indicates that the UK was clear on how it viewed the implementation.

/5

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Dr Anna Jerzewska Profile picture
3 Jul
The issues around the NI Protocol come back to the 80:20 rule:

If you don't do it right and only spend 20% of the time negotiating, you'll spend 80% of time implementing and fixing.

Look at the language here

/1

irishtimes.com/opinion/david-…
"We expected", "we assumed".

Did you not have any conversations about how it would look in practice? What facilitating trade means and what cheks can be simplified?

Why not?

/2
The requirement to treat the movement of goods into Northern Ireland as if they were crossing the EU external border is implied in the Protocol and results from applying customs legislation to NI and placing the border in the Irish Sea.

/3
Read 12 tweets
Dr Anna Jerzewska Profile picture
1 Jul
One more point re yesterday's session.

Every single proposal for an “invisible” NI border has the same problem. Every single time smn tries to rethink border formalities and eliminate the dreaded customs “checks” they fall into the same 3⃣ pitfalls.

Every single time.

/1
1⃣ Focus on checks and not formalities

Typical mistake – thinking that removing checks “solves” the border. It doesn’t. Checks are rarely the problem. They are a small part of work and costs for traders.

/2
2⃣ Not removing checks just shifting them to a different time / place

The need for checks and verification stays. Especially when proposals suggest making non-compliance a criminal offence – that requires enforcement, which requires checks.

/3
Read 5 tweets
Dr Anna Jerzewska Profile picture
25 Jun
The only thing I would add is that I think that “defending the integrity of SM” at the end of the day wasn’t about the details- checks and formalities. It's a concept.

The EU was/is after the one thing that the UK does not want to provide – reassurance and certainty.

/1
Reassurance that the UK understands that this integrity, as @Mij_Europe points out, is fundamental to the politics of some of the big players.

The certainty that the UK will be a serious partner in implementing the Protocol.

But what does that mean in practice?

/2
Respecting certain principles, dependencies and trade-offs? – Yes.

That some derogations and simplifications would not be possible on the ground? I don’t think so.

Why? – customs.

/3
Read 11 tweets
Dr Anna Jerzewska Profile picture
23 Jun
🚛 Here is an interesting fact - it’s end of June and we don’t yet have a functioning border management system.

Remember the Goods Vehicle Movement Service (GVMS)? The system that was supposed to be first implemented in January to manage our borders?

/1
Remember how we all talked about the fact that you don’t build IT systems in a few months? That they require testing etc? And how Gov was sure it will be ready?

It wasn’t ready so the full implementation was pushed back to June.

/2
A while back, together with all the announcements around further easements and extensions, GVMS was pushed back to Jan 2022.

/3
Read 6 tweets
Dr Anna Jerzewska Profile picture
22 Jun
An article on the top 5 benefits of joining the CPTPP written by the UK's Chief Negotiator for accession to CPTPP - so basically the right person to ask.

Read it carefully cause the wording is very important here.

/1

linkedin.com/pulse/top-5-be…
It kind of hints at opportunities rather than promises results.

Important to remember that some companies will be in a position to profit from these benefits and others will not.

/2
E.e.
“could boost UK exports” - doesn’t mean that it will, there is potential but it will depend on a range of company/industry-specific factors

“will make it simpler for the UK to sell services” – relative to now and subject to conditions in the text.

/3
Read 5 tweets
Dr Anna Jerzewska Profile picture
22 Jun
So the UK started the CPTPP negotiations today. And the benefits of joining according to Gov's own estimates are... moderate at best... 0.08%.

And that is if they have taken into account all the bilateral deals that the UK already has with CPTPP members

/1
These deals will take away from the impact of the CPTPP.

Joe also mentioned the caveat in the report.
Measuring the impact of FTAs before they are implemented or negotiated is tricky and can only provide a rough estimate.

/2

CGE modelling is static and doesn't take all the expected benefits of an FTA into account.

Given all the bilateral deals joining the CPTPP is mostly around strategic and geopolitical objectives.

Plus regional cumulation, some stuff on digital and other bits and pieces.

/3
Read 8 tweets

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