#Russia_Belarus: Lukashenko does not use illegal migration just to punish Lithuania for hosting rival Sviatlana Tikhanovskaya and promoting sanctions. The Russian MFA through Zakharova's voice was quite suggestive about what Lukashenko is looking for. Here are some takeaways⤵️
from what he says today: 1) She tried to deflect the attention from Belarus by using a red herring technique and accusing the EU/West of causing the migration waves from North Africa and the Middle East in the first place; 2) Zakharova instilled some thoughts that clearly show⤵️
that the EU should not expect Belarus to be as cooperative as in the past after sanctions were unleashed against it; 3) The advice she gave to the EU and Lithuania is to start the official dialogue with Minsk. That would imply a certain degree of recognition of Lukashenko and⤵️
even compensations that would have to imply the restoration of the Readmission Agreement. In return, Lukashenko would definitely call for the lifting of some economic sanctions. In fact, albeit indirectly, Zakharova/ Moscow acknowledged that Lukashenko is using the issue⤵️
of "migration" as a lever against the EU/Lithuania. Here is my analysis that recalls what are the developments around the EU sanctions on Belarus.👇

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More from @DionisCenusa

11 Jul
#MoldovaVote2021: This thread will cover today's snap elections. In short, there are 23 electoral competitors. The electoral authorities have cast ~ 3.2 million votes, of which ~ 750,000 votes were sent abroad for the diaspora (150 voting sections). Let us begin: ⤵️
1) So far, 10% or approx 285,000 voters have cast their votes. As always, the elderly population is an early riser and voted in greater numbers. 👇 ImageImage
2) Voters in Germany and Italy, where there is a high concentration of Moldovan and diaspora immigrants, line up to vote.
Read 10 tweets
9 Jul
#Russia: MFA spokeswoman Zakharova commented on the Moldovan elections, noting that only one party pleads for a balanced foreign policy between Russia and the West. She was referring to the Communists and Socialists Bloc, without naming it. On the other hand, Zakharova argued⤵️
that other electoral candidates are only pro-Western, which in the event of their victory would be detrimental to ties with Russia. In reality, none of the pro-EU parties has set a goal to deteriorate the dialogue with Moscow. Zakharova reiterated that Russia is closely⤵️
monitoring the electoral situation in Moldova. She complained that the EU and the US would allegedly get involved in the election campaign by criticizing the pro-Russian parties. As far as I know, the Western politician could comment on the quality of certain reforms,⤵️
Read 5 tweets
3 Jul
#Russia: Putin had a rich telephone conversation with Macron. The French leader previously said that he does not need an EU summit to speak to Putin. First, the two agreed that they will continue the bilateral discussions on the new security architecture for Europe that began⤵️
in 2019. Second, Putin and Macron addressed the importance of the implementation of the 2015 Minsk Agreements. Putin wants Kyiv to dialogue with the separatist regions (an old-new request). Macron told about finding durable solutions between Russia and Ukraine. Third, the two ⤵️
interlocutors discussed the situation in the Karabakh region. What is surprising is that Russia welcomes a greater involvement of the EU, but only in the area of humanitarian aid (security for Russia, costs of humanitarian aid for the EU). In the fourth and last place, they ⤵️
Read 4 tweets
2 Jul
#Ukraine: Health Minister Lyashko has announced that Ukraine is trying to convince the EU to recognize vaccination certificates for Chinese (CoronaVac) and CoviShield (Indian version of AstraZeneca). He claims they are registered by WHO. Therefore, according to him, not⤵️
approving them is contrary to international law (this sounds like a totally made-up argument). Interestingly, while Ukraine is against Sputnik V, the authorities not only buy, but also advocate for the Chinese vaccine in Brussels. Lyashko doesn’t realize that the EU counts only⤵️
on its agencies on such decisions not on political contacts with the third countries.
The fact that Ukraine heavily relies on non-Western vaccines is partly because the EU lacks a clear, vigorous and proactive vaccination strategy for its main partners in the EaP region. This ⤵️
Read 4 tweets
18 May
My latest article: “Oligarchy in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine: between withdrawal, regrouping and “re-education”. bit.ly/3tW7oyr
Here are of my previous works that research the oligarchy in the EaP region, presented chronologically:
1) “"Anti-oligarch spring" or temporary illusion in Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine?” (2019) bit.ly/2QtO6Ti
Read 5 tweets
10 May
#Moldova: Some interesting facts about the upcoming snap elections: 1) Approximately 70,000 diaspora / emigrant voters have provisionally registered (~ 60,000 for the 2020 presidential election); ⤵️
2) 53 political parties were admitted to the elections (2019: 15 parties have registered)
the budget to organize the elections amounts to 125 million MDL (~ 6 million euros). The source of this money has not yet been identified, but it must only come from public funds. ⤵️
4) The main pre-election debate is about forming a bloc or running alone. The pro-Russian socialists are the ones talking about it.⤵️
Read 16 tweets

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