35707 UK cases today drops the doubling time down a notch to 22,7 days. Despite 4 of 10 of England's ambulances already being overloaded and on "Black Alert" (something we only know thanks to leaks):



... it does make you wonder whether - had the...
... government not insisted on lifting the brakes on 19 July, whether the continued progress of vaccination would be able to dull this wave before it gets too bad. A 3-week doubling time is a significant improvement, after all.

But I guess we'll never know.
With all but a handful of European countries back into case growth, Germany - one of the more slow-growing European countries - has declared all of Spain a COVID risk area and requires that travelers provide a negative test result to avoid quarantine.

reuters.com/world/europe/g…
Pfizer has announced plans to soon apply for emergency authorization for a third booster shot, to boost general immunity and particularly against certain immunity evasions (such as are found in Beta). They are also preparing to start trials on a Delta-specific booster shot. The..
CDC, by contrast, has pushed back, stating that there is no clear evidence at this point that booster shots will be required.

cnbc.com/2021/07/08/pfi…

(Israel's worse efficacy data compared to the UK's does argue for declining immunity over time, but it's understandable that...
... the CDC would not want to scare off unvaccinated people with the prospects of a third shot until they've concluded that it's actually needed).

The latest UK variants of concern report notes that additional spike mutations are occuring on Delta but they remain relatively...
... rare at present:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

The UK has added two more "variants of concern" to their tracking list, and notes that mutations with antigenic significance (potentially immune-evading) have become much more common since the vaccine rollout began.
In other news, the attempt to keep COVID out of the Italian national team have been thrown into doubt after three TV crew members who have been closely following the team tested positive for COVID:

irishtimes.com/sport/soccer/i…

The team is vaccinated.
Austria has now moved for the first time into having vaccine supply exceed demand, and is now focusing more on encouraging people to show up.

reuters.com/article/health…

83% of Austrians polled want to be vaccinated, so one expects progress to continue to be made.
While it won't come online until late 2022 and output will be limited, a new vaccine plant in Senegal is being heralded as a major step towards helping Africa be able to provide for its own vaccination needs.

reuters.com/article/health…
Sinovac however continues to face problems. After a wave of deaths of Sinovac-vaccinated healthcare workers, Indonesia will now be offering them an additional dose of Moderna.

theguardian.com/world/live/202…
Indeed, the lead Sinovac researcher himself, Novillia Sjafri Bachtiar in Indonesia just died on Wednesday of a suspected COVID-19 infection.

edition.cnn.com/2021/07/08/asi…
In Hungary, which relied heavily on Sinovac, concern over efficacy has led Budapest to offer elderly recipients free antibody testing to see if they could use a booster.

newsweek.com/concerns-over-…
In personal antibody testing news, I measured in at a disappointing 827 U/ml after two Pfizer shots, putting me in the bottom 10-15 percentile, with 5-6% the median antibody levels. I'd even be ~35th percentile for AZ recipients, and about 50% percentile for immunocompromised...
... AZ recipients. This was however only two weeks after my second dose, so I'll retest later. Based on this...

nature.com/articles/s4159…

... I still expect to have good protection against death, but probably not great protection against symptomatic infection. :Þ

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More from @enn_nafnlaus

10 Jul
32367 cases on a Saturday brings the centre-averaged doubling time down to slightly to 18 days. UK hospitalizations continue the expected exponential trend.

It's been previously discussed that Delta's effectiveness is by and large not through any clever immune-evasion tricks,... ImageImage
... but rather largely through simply being a more "fit" virus due a higher binding affinity for ACE2. New research continues to show how fit it is:

virological.org/t/viral-infect…

Over the course of the pandemic, the mean time between exposure and PCR-detectable levels of ...
... virus has fallen from 6 to 4 days. More concerningly however, the detectable levels of the virus were 1260 times (not percent... times) higher at the first detection than early in the pandemic. Delta, quite simply, surges to high viral loads extremely quickly.

Even in our...
Read 10 tweets
8 Jul
Lots going on in the charts today, in this period of calm before the brakes get lifted on the 19th.

The good news first: meagre growth to 32551 cases on a Thurday boosts the doubling time to 26,1 days.

The bad news: the death trend continues to rise further above the... ImageImage
... hospitalization trend, nearly keeping track with the case trend.

We finally got age breakdown data for June, and there is some good news: the growing incidence rate of childhood hospitalizations relative to cases has reversed and is back to winter levels. While it's not...
... clear why this has happened, it's certainly welcome.

Vaccination in June switched to primarily focusing on the 18-54yo cohort, and this can be clearly seen in their declining share of cases in graph 2. The 55+ cohort continued to decline as immunity built, but appears to...
Read 13 tweets
1 Jul
27989 cases today ticks the doubling time slightly back up to 10,2 days; however, this only delays hitting the previous peak by a few hours. England hospitalization growth accelerates, as would be expected.
Across Europe, more countries keep swinging back into growth.
Vaccination is trending up in many of them, but not all; the UK in particular is seeing a significant and sustained dropoff in vaccination rates. Israel is finally starting to see some meaningful (although still low) vaccination rates again.
Read 11 tweets
29 Jun
While yesterday's numbers were boosted by underreporting the previous day, today's 20479 are not. Doubling time drops even further, to 7,2 days. UK hospitalization and death counts for recent days have also been revised (upwards).

While I have not been putting a particular... Image
emphasis on Scotland, they've already surpassed their all-time peak daily case rate.



Week-over-week case growth in European countries of meaningful size is now UK +68%, Finland +49%, Belgium +29%, Portugal +25%, Spain +22%, and Irelaland +0,4%. Norway...
... dips slightly off the list at -0,1%.

How well is past infection with earlier COVID strains protecting against Delta? The data is still preliminary and needs followup, but thusfar the answer appears to be "poorly".

A number of infectious disease experts who previously got.. Image
Read 6 tweets
28 Jun
@reisada @Louisbotelho17 @TSLAFanMtl #1: "no antibody test on the control group"

The odds of any control having had COVID would be small to begin with, but the odds are made even smaller by the fact that they bare minimum never had any symptoms worth getting checked out.
@reisada @Louisbotelho17 @TSLAFanMtl #2: "brain changes are seen in chronic rhinosinusitis"

It's a legitimate criticism (separating cause and effect), but she's taking this Biobank study in isolation, but it's not at all in isolation; it's just the latest of a long series of studies. Take this one, for example:
@reisada @Louisbotelho17 @TSLAFanMtl thelancet.com/journals/lanps…

TL/DR: "Our study provides evidence for substantial neurological and psychiatric morbidity in the 6 months after COVID-19 infection." Compared to controls and to other respiratory illnesses.

It can also be pointed out that some *causes* of chronic...
Read 10 tweets
6 May
@SwingTraderCO @garnettca @Mista3rdEye @GovofCO This is wrong in so many ways.

First off, "the flu" is caused by influenzavirus. "Colds" can be caused by a wide range of viruses, a minority of them including coronaviruses, but none involving this branch (sarbecoviruses), which have a very different mode of action.

The...
@SwingTraderCO @garnettca @Mista3rdEye @GovofCO reason why it's proven so hard to develop herd immunity to the flu and colds is specifically because they're so incredibly diverse. They've been evolving alongside humans since time immemorial, though new ones periodically transfer in from wild animals and certain random...
@SwingTraderCO @garnettca @Mista3rdEye @GovofCO strains prove unable to overcome herd immunity over time and die out. Any vaccine for one strain will only affect that strain.

The general pattern for seasonal influenza and seasonal colds is that herd immunity tends to develop in northern climates in the northern winter...
Read 10 tweets

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