Thread by @VanaT66

1⃣Nothing is more important to🇪🇬than the #Nile, which runs through the nation’s history & economy. The Nile is fed by two main tributaries, the White and the Blue Nile which meet at Khartoum,🇸🇩. The Blue Nile, originating in Lake Tana in🇪🇹, is the source of most of Egypt's water.

2⃣It has been more than 10 years since Ethiopia announced to build Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nile. Since then, the prospect has loomed as an existential threat over Egypt.

3⃣Was the GERD a good idea? Possibly not.
Egypt’s Nile Delta, approximately 1m. above sea level, is already slowly sinking, thanks in part to the tectonic plates but also to a reduction in the amount of sediment being deposited in the delta (possibly due to Aswan High Dam too).

4⃣But recent studies predict this problem will be “seriously exacerbated” by the operation of the GERD.
Lacking agreement with Ethiopia over the operation of the GERD, Sudan is also concerned about the impact on its hydroelectric Roseires Dam.

5⃣Sudan would also pay a high price were the dam to suffer a catastrophic failure-a possibility that has been raised in several academic papers. One recent study by Egyptian civil & water engineers highlighted “the high risk of soil instability” in the area of the GERD site,

6⃣which is “located on one of the major tectonic plates and faults in the world.” Around that fault, about 16 earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher occurred in Ethiopia during the 20th century.

7⃣Another 250 klm downstream from the Roseires Dam is Sudan’s Sennar Dam. The Egyptian study predicts that, in a breach of the GERD, the resulting flood would swamp the Sennar Dam and inundate land for hundreds of klm, as far as Khartoum.

8⃣Now the GERD is a reality.

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1⃣4⃣Ethiopia wants to begin the filling of the reservoir. When full, the reservoir will hold 74billion m3 of water almost 1/2 as much as the 55billion m3 Egypt gets in a year.
But without a binding agreement the danger is certain.

1⃣5⃣Fill it too quickly, and Egypt will be deprived of water, devastating its agricultural sector and disrupting its economy, leaving its people short of food and throwing millions out of work.

1⃣6⃣If the level of water in Lake Nasser drops significantly, the amount of electricity generated in the Aswan High Dam will be dramatically reduced. Egypt says that Ethiopia should take at least 12y-20y to fill the reservoir depending on the amount of annual rainfall.

1⃣7⃣What can Egypt do?
Scientists at the Zagagig University in the paper "Managing Risks of the GERD on Egypt" proposed strategies for Egypt to offset the risks posted by the GERD, for saving of 40bill. m3 of water.

1⃣8⃣But even if these strategies have the potential to help Egypt, the impact of the GERD without a binding agreement between the 3 countries will be serious, especially during years of drought.

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Source
arabnews.com/BattleForTheNi…