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11 Jul, 4 tweets, 2 min read
NEW PATREON PERK:

Prospect Cards are finally LIVE for $5+ Patreon supporters.

These are built using @TopDownHockey's new NHLe model and include all 2021 draft prospects and all NHL prospects.

Such as 2021 top prospect Owen Power: Image
NHLe is a model that translates data from other leagues to project an NHL "equivalency" of point production. From there, it can be used to estimate a player's chance of becoming a star or full-time NHLer

topdownhockey.medium.com/nhl-equivalenc…
These cards include not only 2021 draft prospects but already-drafted NHL prospects, like 2020 10th overall pick Cole Perfetti of the Winnipeg Jets: Image
Sign up for the Patreon for NHL player cards, roster builders, prospect stuff, and a lot more:

patreon.com/jfreshhockey

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More from @JFreshHockey

JFresh Profile picture
12 Jul
who cares. nothing wrong with scouting, nobody thinks there shouldn't be scouts. drafting a player with 5 points in 77 games because he showed fearlessness or whatever is I think the issue people take with overvaluing intangibles
i have fearlessness when I play beer league. i have heart. i stink

Patric Hornqvist and Brendan Gallagher have fearlessness and heart. they win puck battles, forecheck, and get dangerous scoring chances in front of the net. the intangibles lead to something tangible
the dumb part about Pierre's tirades were never that he doesn't like analytics - who cares about whether a 58 year old career hockey man has a hockeyviz subscription - but his unshakeable faith that intangible qualities in a player can't possibly translate tangible results...
Read 5 tweets
JFresh Profile picture
3 Mar
My thoughts on PDO (since it's come up):

- Flawed because not all teams have equally talented finisher/goaltenders
- Useful because luck is by far a larger driver than talent
- Useful because it's very hard to just "guess" goaltending and finishing talent for a team...
- Useful because while goaltending and finishing do have a talent component (obviously) they are also extremely variable, especially from season to season.
- Useful because it has been shown that season-to-season and mid-season to mid-season it does regress towards 100
We know that skater finishing and goaltending isn't that far from random from season to season. If a model factoring in xG can barely pick out player-level talent, how should we expect the layman trying to figure out if his team's #s are sustainable to pick it out at a team level
Read 7 tweets
JFresh Profile picture
2 Mar
A reminder of some of the 2020-21 season visualizations available to $5+ Patreon supporters - we've added a whole lot!

Like these team cards, which show off a team's rank in the most important on-ice stats:
And these head-to-head cards, which let you compare two teams directly based on their underlying numbers (offence- and defence-focused cards also available)
And the set of team visualizations which show off team performance in playdriving, goals, finishing, and goaltending.

Like this one which shows expected goal rates for and against:
Read 7 tweets
JFresh Profile picture
2 Mar
My sources are telling me that Eichel to the Sens is certainly a possibility, but the Sabres would want Shane Pinto as the main piece going back. That's most likely a no-go for Ottawa
Could things change in the future? Never say never. But the Sens organization considers Pinto to be huge part of their middle six moving forward and it would take a better piece than Eichel to pry him out of Ottawa. #GoSensGo
Read 4 tweets
JFresh Profile picture
1 Mar
Weekly 5v5 Team Charts Thread (March 1st):
Expected Goals For vs Against (5v5) - March 1

The #GoHabsGo are still the class of the league when it comes to scoring chance share at 5v5. The #Canucks are crazy and high-event. The #GoStars and #LGRW are playing low-event defensive hockey. Image
Goals For and Against (5v5) - March 1

The #LetsGoBuffalo simply cannot score. The #GoSensGo simply can't get a save. The #GoBolts are having a great time though! Image
Read 8 tweets
JFresh Profile picture
28 Feb
Fun fact: the Edmonton Oilers rank first in the NHL in the percentage of their shots, shot attempts, and unblocked shot attempts that are taken by defencemen. #LetsGoOilers
Evan Bouchard leads all defencemen in personal share of on-ice shots taken. By far. Of the Oilers' 80 5v5 shots on goal with him on the ice, he has taken 31 (39%).

2nd place is Nick Holden with 28%. #LetsGoOilers
Oilers defencemen ranks in personal share of on-ice 5v5 shots on goal:

Evan Bouchard (1st)
Tyson Barrie (17th)
Kris Russell (58th)
Darnell Nurse (67th)
Caleb Jones (89th)
Slater Koekkoek (90th)
Adam Larsson (128th)
Read 4 tweets

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