President Macron went further than expected in actions to check the Delta variant in his TV address tonight. There will be compulsory vaccination for health workers and others in contact with the vulnerable but he warned that compulsory jabs for ALL may also be considered. 1/4
The digital health pass demanded for access to big public events (double vaccinaton, proof of recovery from Covid or negative test) will be extended in 2 stages – to all events with 50+ people from 22 July and to cafes, restos, long-distance trains/buses and hosps from Aug.
2/4
To encourage people to get vaxxed, there will be charges for Covid tests from Sept. On other issues, Macron said he would revive pensions reform shelved because of the pandemic – but only when the health crisis was over. In other words, not before next April’s election. 3/4
Macron said Delta threatened a spike in the pandemic this summer. New cases have risen 63% in a week to average 3,843 a day. But he said there would be no return to tough social restrictions save in départements whose incidence rate topped 200. Most are now less than 100. 4/4
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Two numbers justify Macron’s big stick approach to vaccination in his TV address on Monday. 1. There were 6,950 C19 cases yesterday, bringing the daily av. to 4,324 (70% up in a week).
2. 2.5m people have signed up for 1st jabs since he spoke.
1/10
There was an instant impact yesterday – a new record of 792,339 jabs of all kinds and 269,776 1st shots (which had been running at below 200,000 a day).
The Doctolib site now reckons that France will cross the threshold of 40m 1st shots (circa 77% of adults) in 10 days.
2/10
The original target date for France to reach 40m first shots was tomorrow but the government foolishly put it back last month to the end of August. The new target may now be reached five weeks early. Coercion works, it seems.
3/10.
Weekly French Covid thread
Any hope of France containing the Delta variant can be abandoned. Delta’s share of new cases has doubled again in the last week to 40%. Case numbers and the incidence rate are climbing once more. The figures remain small but that won’t last.
1/10
President Macron has convened a meeting of the health defence council today. Apart from urging more people to get vaccinated (and those numbers are also rising again) it’s not clear what the government plans to do. No return to social restrictions is envisaged so far.
2/10
The daily average of cases in Fr. has risen to 2,534, from 1,835 a week ago. The incidence rate – cases per 100,000 people/7 days – was 24.1 on Sat, compared to 18.5 a week before. Overall numbers are not huge but they conceal strong surges in some areas and some age groups. 3/10
Weekly French vaccination thread.
A confusing week – worrying in some respects; encouraging in others.
Demand for 1st vaccinations has slumped again and the Delta variant has jumped to 10% of new cases. On the other hand, 2nd jabs are booming and cases remain very low. 1/12
First doses have dropped to an average of around 200,000 a day, compared to 400,000 in late May and an average of nearly 300,000 for the whole of June. Overall, the vax rate remains on a high plateau of just under 600,000 because of the record rate of 2nd jabs. 2/12
The government is disturbed by the collapse in demand for 1st jabs. (But it institutionalised the slump by shifting the target for 40m 1st jabs from 15 July to 31 Aug.) Efforts are to be made to re-ignite demand with “no appointment” vax-centres and vaxxing in malls etc. 3/12
All pandemic figures are excellent in France, save one: the relentless advance of the Delta variant. Almost 7% of new cases are the Delta form of C19, according to the latest stats. In the Paris area, they jumped to from 4% to 9.6% in a few days. 1/10
The actual number of cases of Covid of any kind is very low- the lowest since last summer. Deaths and acute hospital cases have fallen sharply for the eighth week in a row. The incidence rate nationwide is 24.1 (cases per 100,000 people/7 days). In April it was 300+. 2/10
But how long can that last with the faster-moving Delta variant now 98% of cases in UK and spreading fast in other countries (see chart, showing change in last month)? The epidemiologist Dominique Costagliola says it's “very probable” Delta will be dominant in France soon.
3/10
Weekly French vaccination thread.
France’s vaccination rate hit a new record this week – 581,708 a day – even though 1st doses slumped.
Second doses and complete vaccinations (not quite the same) are booming. But demand for 1st doses is slackening, as forecast last week. 1/12
First doses, though reasonably high, are being eroded by complacency (as the pandemic falls away) and by resistance from the vax-shy and vax-lazy in older age groups. 1st shots are now averaging 268,772 daily - short of the 306,000 needed to reach 40m first vaxes by 15 July. 2/12
BUT...
PM Jean Castex shifted the goalposts (without anyone noticing much).
He gave end-Aug as a new deadline for 40m 1st jabs – which is Extremely Unambitious (about 112,000 shots a day, below half the current rate). He also said he expected 35m to be fully-vaxxed by then. 3/12
Weekly French vaccination thread.
France will hit its 15 June target of 30m 1st doses today – 3 days early. Another record was set this week with an average of 580,000 doses a day. For the 2nd week in succession, France vaxxed at a higher daily rate than the UK (450,826). 1/12
By last night, France had given 29,831,488 1st jabs since 27 Dec – 169,000 short of the 15 June target. However, the rate of 1st doses has fallen a little. This is partly because zillions of 2nd doses are due. There has also been a slowing of demand. 2/12
Doctolib, the booking site, reports a 44% fall in appointments from the mid-May peak. This may reflect the fact that loads of older people are already vaxxed. Some of the remainder are vax-lazy, shy or resistant. The retreat of the pandemic has eroded the sense of urgency. 3/12