Ahead of today's vote, it's worth recapping Tory voters' views on foreign aid spending. Namely: they hate it so very much. It is literally up there with 'abolish the monarchy' or 'make Corbyn PM'. See this from @FrankLuntz for @CPSThinkTank 
Yes, Tory voters have a distorted view of how much is spent on aid - 29% of them name is as one of the four categories we spend most money on (this set of slides pretty alarming more generally). But that only makes them dislike it more.
The argument is sometimes made by aid's supporters that Tory voters might not like it, but it has a sort of penumbra of morality around it that appeals to Lib Dem-leaning voters in Chesham and places like that.
But Lib Dem voters dislike it too! And the ones who dislike it most are probably the least likely to go Tory. Look at this polling from YouGov, which completely backs up Luntz's point
Look at that Tory vote - 92-3! I'm pretty sure 'Pull down Churchill's statue and put Greta Thunberg in his place' would poll higher.
Now of course, it's not about polls. MPs do vote on occasion for what they actually think is right. But it is very clear that Tory voters (and voters in general) think that if cuts are needed, aid should be cut first and most.
And to be honest, they probably think that even without the 'if cuts are needed'.
(It is worth saying here that I am personally worried about us having to abandon medical research projects, especially mid-trial. The cut has been a brute instrument. But it is ENORMOUSLY politically popular.)
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