Thread by @andrewflood

Cautious Reopening with added as red dots todays
589 cases, 148% last Tuesday
62 hospital, 115% last Tuesday
17 ICU, 106% last Tuesday
We crossed 4k cases in a week today, 4092 this week are 124% previous weeks, I'll come back that down thread /1

What may be the key metric is the percentage of cases that become hospitalised - that has drifted downwards slightly to 1.9% however as cases are rising faster we will still see the numbers being hospitalised and then numbers in hospital climbing. /2

At each week being 124% of previous & 1.9% hospitalised by Sept 30th we'd see 260k cases and 5,000 hospitalisations. In other words we appear to currently be heading for somewhere between the NPHET Central scenarios. But thats before the impact of opening indoor hospitality /3

Today there were 31 people dose 1 vaccinated for each of the 589 cases & 57 max vaccinated.
1st dose: 2,707,472 (55.2% pop) +18,499 (16+ 69.3%)
Max: 2,156,038 (44%) +34,029 (16+ 55.2%)

With the scenario calculation it’s not clear how much vaccinations will slow down the growth rate & reduce hospitalizations in between. There is a lot riding on very hard to calculate effects in the weeks ahead - part of my motivation in tracking core stats

https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1415221045620101121