Thread by @andrewflood

With almost 1000 cases a day it's clear the Cautious Reopening is now off the rails & in next tweet I have a new plot. But added today as red dots
994 cases, 186% last Thursday
80 hospital, 138% "
22 ICU, 129% "
/1

New plot using the NPHET scenarios to track what I'm calling the Precarious Exit. Cases added as bright green dot, you'll note we are already doing worse than the worst case NPHET presented yesterday. Next tweet I look at how much worse /2

We have had 4754 cases in week which is 140% last week- project forward at that rate to end September & we have 840k cases accumulate, 19k hospitalised at current rate of 2.3% cases
4294
6012
8416
11783
16496
23094
32332
45265
63370
88719
124206
173888
243444
/3

I'm tracking hospitalisations and ICU as a percentage of cases here - this is the record of this going back over 6 weeks. It varies a little between 1.8% and 2.3%. ICU is more variable but 6-10% of hospitalisations so that could be 1900 into ICU /4

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1407357458243280900?s=20

All of these simple math operations on the current growth rate put us in a worse situation than the worst NPHET scenario BEFORE indoors even opens. Perhaps this is a pair of bad days but if no improvement opening indoors would simply lead us to lockdown in mid August /5

Figures from the north today are even worse & despite higher vaccination rate they are also seeing a 2.3% hospitalisation rate. It's becoming very clear that until all are vaccinated cases have to be kept low otherwise hospitals will be overwhelmed /6

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1415666459095666692?s=20

The template for the Precarious Exit uses these two NPHET slides from last night. As anyone following me for a while knows I've used similar plots to track progress in the last 5 months & then are useful at seeing the direction of travel beyond individual good or bad days /7

I favour using simple math calculations rather than 'models' as I think its much easier for most of us to understand simple math operations like percentages, multiplications & compound interest. Both produce similar results but the explanatory impact of the math is better /8

With Delta it's clear that everyone is getting immunity the easy way via vaccination or the hard way via surviving infection. Policy has to be directed at making sure of the 2 million left as many as possible get it the easy way, both for them but also to keep other healthcare