Very valuable presenting the 'before Delta' scenario as well as I think it's not sunk in how much it has changed things. This is not the virus of last summer. We did better than the last central model - we can collectively do the same again & minimise hospitalisations and deaths
From the CMO letter a demonstration that vaccines are working well "Of cases notified in the past 14 days, 84% have occurred in people under 45 years of age; and 3% were aged 65 years and older. The median age for cases notified in the same period is 26 years" /2
And here's some bad news "Taqpath S-gene PCR target results by specimen week show that the prevalence of S-gene positivity (proxy for Delta) has increased from 28% in week 24 to 55.5% in week 25." /3
And more - some of these will be from before the period "Since the cyber-attack, 53 COVID-19 deaths have been reported to the HPSC and verified (as of 28th June 2021)." /4
"According to the HSE, from 21st – 27th June, of those tested with close contacts, the average
number of close contacts per case was 3.8" - small increase which probably part explains recent case growth /5
"47 confirmed Delta outbreaks associated with 80 confirmed cases (based on whole genome sequencing).
β€’ 25 probable Delta outbreaks associated with 80 probable cases (based on S-gene positivity which is a proxy for Delta)." /6
projected "infections occur largely in the young, unvaccinated population, but as force of infection grows, a significant number of infections also occur in older, vaccinated people. 75% of cases are in people under 40 years of age, 99.9% of the deaths are in people over 40 " /6
"infection curve, beyond Sept 2021 sustained by infection in children not currently eligible for vaccination. If children are less susceptible, less likely to transmit , or decision is made to vaccinate under 16 years of age wave of infection will peak earlier & decline rapidly.
"Vulnerable groups are not yet fully vaccinated and remain at significant risk to the severe impact of COVID-19 (75% of 60-69 year olds and & 46% 50-59 year olds have not yet received second dose; cohort 7 not yet complete)" /8
"The number of available inpatient acute beds has declined significantly in recent weeks, with just 171 vacant beds across the system this morning at 8 am, and 176 people on trolleys awaiting admission .. there are 258 critical care beds occupied from total of 300 available" /9
"NPHET is conscious of the impact that some of these recommendations may have on the sense of national & intergenerational solidarity that has been a hallmark of the public’s response .. However, it remains critical that we continue to protect the progress made" /10
if "cases increase in line with higher estimates of 60% increased transmissibility of delta, the benefit of all vaccines will be favourable to all age groups.. NIAC have recommended that those aged 18-49 years who wish to opt for earlier vaccination can be offered" AZ/JJ /11
Looks like NPHET have provided a new plot for my daily how are we doing updates - this is their optimistic scenario which see a modest but sustained daily increase until enough people are vaccinated or have survival immunity in the Autumn /12 Image
And also for tracking hospital & ICU. Hope I can use these and not have to switch to the much grimer central scenarios where hospital occupancy almost hits 1500 /13 Image

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More from @andrewflood

1 Jul
Somewhat to my surprise this late in the pandemic I'm, still seeing 'cases may be rising but hospitalisations aren't' so I thought it would be useful to do a broad timeline of the delays between infection & the various stats warning us. They can run into weeks /1
1. Infections are invisible, we don't know they have happened, no test can pick them up until some days later. Delta has been observed to double in 4.5 days meaning by the time we have a clue 1000 infections are already 4000
2. Cases are when someone has felt ill or has been told they are a close contact, booked a test, attended the test, the swab has gone to a lab, the lab has got a result & that result is Quality assured. It varies with the speed of those steps but Cases are probably 9+ days
Read 12 tweets
29 Jun
In a day of unhappy news unfortunately the Cautious Reopening plot is also taking a turn for the worse - all 3 indicators have risen in comparison with last Tuesday. Added as red dots
351 cases, 119% last Tuesday
46 hospital, 118% last Tuesday
16 ICU, 123% last Tuesday /1 Image
Earlier today we heard Delta had reached being 55% of cases . This may be why what was working now isn't, the
2471 cases in last 7 days is 109% previous 7 but week before we had a 22% reduction. One positive - 44 hospital cases in the week is 1.9% of cases to J23, a .1% drop /2
I summarise the key points in the latest NPHET to CMO letter in this thread but the 1st line of that table compared to the rest gives an idea of just how much Delta has messed up what was previously a convincing reopening plan /3 Image
Read 4 tweets
29 Jun
This is priceless, after wanting PUP cut off to force unvaccinated workers to take up low paid hospitality jobs in high risk settings the restaurant lobbyist is now using unvaccinated status to argue against restricting indoors to vaccinated customers. Was this even challenged Image
If he has now accepted that indoor hospitality settings are such a risk that staff should be fast tracked for vaccination he accepts the need for delay until they are. Can’t have it both ways & line a stopped clock he’s right they should be
There’s a real issue with the platform lobbyists are given by RTE to just regurgitate evidence free opinion without accountability for the previous times they have some responsibility for adding to disaster - apology for this should be the 1st question in every such interview
Read 7 tweets
11 Jun
HIQA saying the introduction of Delta at scale is now inevitable β€œDue to high volume of travel between Ireland & UK (which is currently non-designated), the current system may be ineffective given the increasing prevalence of the Delta variant in the UK.” irishexaminer.com/news/arid-4031…
Our vaccination program has got to about 2/3 of the proportion of the population that the UKs has. Despite their greater coverage reopening indoor hospitality led to cases & now hospitalizations climbing - the north opened a week later & their climb starts a week later
While the situation will improve by July 5 we will still be 2 weeks behind vaccination schedule of reopening & as of now almost no one under 70 has both doses that are needed for good protection against Delta. Few young hospitality workers will even have dose 1 by then
Read 17 tweets
10 Jun
#Covid19Ireland Cautious Reopening plot June 10th with added as red dots
398 cases, 86% last Thursday
70 in hospital, 83% last Thursday
27 in ICU, 90% last Thursday
All indicators below expected with lowest 7 day average since the 17 December turning point to wave 3 /1
45% of population now have partial protection of dose 1 vaccination, 22% have more substantial 'fully vaccinated' protection. These are quite short of where we need be in terms of risking opening of indoor hospitality as we are seeing from England
County data shows alarming situations in Limerick where infection are double those of the next worst hit counties and over 10 times that of those counties doing best /3
Read 4 tweets
9 Jun
Jun 9 #Covid19 Cautious Reopening with todays cases lowest this year (but possible BH effect). Added as red dots
259 cases, 64% last Weds
76 hospital, 82% last Weds
27 ICU, 77% last Weds
All well below expected, doing a bit better now than so far so good /1 Image
Also welcome news that Delta has only increased by 11 since last week so no increase in the rate of increase. England & Wales have seen cases double this week due to Delta & indoor hospitality having reopened. We could not afford that sort of rate of increase /2
Donnelly Tweeted an age incidence table that while showing vaccination protection of over 55s as he intended also revealed rising rates of infection in kids, teens & young adults. Almost no one in these groups is vaccinated or likely to be vaccinated any time before indoor pubs Image
Read 6 tweets

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