Very valuable presenting the 'before Delta' scenario as well as I think it's not sunk in how much it has changed things. This is not the virus of last summer. We did better than the last central model - we can collectively do the same again & minimise hospitalisations and deaths
https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1409849109650026504
From the CMO letter a demonstration that vaccines are working well "Of cases notified in the past 14 days, 84% have occurred in people under 45 years of age; and 3% were aged 65 years and older. The median age for cases notified in the same period is 26 years" /2
And here's some bad news "Taqpath S-gene PCR target results by specimen week show that the prevalence of S-gene positivity (proxy for Delta) has increased from 28% in week 24 to 55.5% in week 25." /3
And more - some of these will be from before the period "Since the cyber-attack, 53 COVID-19 deaths have been reported to the HPSC and verified (as of 28th June 2021)." /4
"According to the HSE, from 21st β 27th June, of those tested with close contacts, the average
number of close contacts per case was 3.8" - small increase which probably part explains recent case growth /5
number of close contacts per case was 3.8" - small increase which probably part explains recent case growth /5
"47 confirmed Delta outbreaks associated with 80 confirmed cases (based on whole genome sequencing).
β’ 25 probable Delta outbreaks associated with 80 probable cases (based on S-gene positivity which is a proxy for Delta)." /6
β’ 25 probable Delta outbreaks associated with 80 probable cases (based on S-gene positivity which is a proxy for Delta)." /6
projected "infections occur largely in the young, unvaccinated population, but as force of infection grows, a significant number of infections also occur in older, vaccinated people. 75% of cases are in people under 40 years of age, 99.9% of the deaths are in people over 40 " /6
"infection curve, beyond Sept 2021 sustained by infection in children not currently eligible for vaccination. If children are less susceptible, less likely to transmit , or decision is made to vaccinate under 16 years of age wave of infection will peak earlier & decline rapidly.
"Vulnerable groups are not yet fully vaccinated and remain at significant risk to the severe impact of COVID-19 (75% of 60-69 year olds and & 46% 50-59 year olds have not yet received second dose; cohort 7 not yet complete)" /8
"The number of available inpatient acute beds has declined significantly in recent weeks, with just 171 vacant beds across the system this morning at 8 am, and 176 people on trolleys awaiting admission .. there are 258 critical care beds occupied from total of 300 available" /9
"NPHET is conscious of the impact that some of these recommendations may have on the sense of national & intergenerational solidarity that has been a hallmark of the publicβs response .. However, it remains critical that we continue to protect the progress made" /10
if "cases increase in line with higher estimates of 60% increased transmissibility of delta, the benefit of all vaccines will be favourable to all age groups.. NIAC have recommended that those aged 18-49 years who wish to opt for earlier vaccination can be offered" AZ/JJ /11
Looks like NPHET have provided a new plot for my daily how are we doing updates - this is their optimistic scenario which see a modest but sustained daily increase until enough people are vaccinated or have survival immunity in the Autumn /12 
And also for tracking hospital & ICU. Hope I can use these and not have to switch to the much grimer central scenarios where hospital occupancy almost hits 1500 /13
β’ β’ β’
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