How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch With Reality
A failure of self-correction in science has compromised climate science’s ability to provide plausible views of our collective future
by me & @jritch @ISSUESinST (online 7/26)
Pielke Jr, R., & Ritchie, J. (2021). Distorting the view of our climate future: The misuse and abuse of climate pathways and scenarios. Energy Research & Social Science. doi.org/10.1016/j.erss…
Plz email or DM for a PDF
We view the "stubborn commitment to error" in the continued use of outdated climate scenarios "as one of the most significant failures of scientific integrity in the twenty-first century thus far"
And that's because climate change is real & important
You don't have to be a rocket scientist or even a climate scientist to see how massively far out of touch with reality are the highest priority scenarios being used in climate research to inform policy
There are excuses but no good ones for this stubborn commitment to error
There will be more to say
Many thanks to the incredible @ISSUESinST which takes editing seriously (rare in publishing these days) & helped to make this article far better than otherwise would have been
And our article is beautifully illustrated as well
Plz share & comment! 🙏
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The 2020 global proportion of carbon-free energy consumption hit a record 16.9% of total energy consumption (up from 15.7% in 2019)
A linear increase of ~1.1%/yr reaches net zero CO2 from FF at ~2100
The pandemic resulted in a big drop in FF consumption
Even so, the challenge of replacing all FF consumption remains pretty much unchanged -- deployment of equivalent of 1 nuclear power plant-eq of C-free energy every day while retiring equal amount of FF
In addition to the ample evidence of dodgy science in anti-doping, this quote from @wada_ama spokesman @JamesFitz501 is key: “the U.S. has been consistent in its strongly held position that WADA should keep cannabis on the List”
The US government took credit for getting marijuana on the (then) IOC prohibited list as a matter of national anti-drug policy despite greater concern of athletes and officials on actual performance-enhancing drugs
I came across this (by Sarah Miller HT @dwallacewells) which I think well summarizes challenges to discussing extremes
“I realize I could cite some data to support this but I’m not going to look anything up because I don’t want to know the truth. I’m comfortable with “It’s bad””
The WADA committee recommending THC inclusion on prohibited list for reasons of morality includes people who also played a role in banning Caster Semenya — another moral crusade
Mostly white men from US/UK/Australia, elite sport vests too much power in a small subset of people
How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch With Reality
A failure of self-correction in science has compromised climate science’s ability to provide plausible views of our collective future
I'll post as soon as out of production ...
Our new paper is a tl;dr summary for a broad readership of our recent 21,000-word piece in ERSS on how climate scenarios got off track doi.org/10.1016/j.erss…
If you are not one of the 7 people who read that magnum opus, then our new paper is for you
When published, I'll also post an accompanying bibliography of our work over the past 20 years on the use/misuse of predictions and projections in climate research and policy