🚨New pub🚨

How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch With Reality
A failure of self-correction in science has compromised climate science’s ability to provide plausible views of our collective future
by me & @jritch
@ISSUESinST (online 7/26)

Read it here now: drive.google.com/file/d/11UMwQ7…
This is a tl;dr update of this 21k-word paper:

Pielke Jr, R., & Ritchie, J. (2021). Distorting the view of our climate future: The misuse and abuse of climate pathways and scenarios. Energy Research & Social Science.
doi.org/10.1016/j.erss…

Plz email or DM for a PDF
We view the "stubborn commitment to error" in the continued use of outdated climate scenarios "as one of the most significant failures of scientific integrity in the twenty-first century thus far"

And that's because climate change is real & important
You don't have to be a rocket scientist or even a climate scientist to see how massively far out of touch with reality are the highest priority scenarios being used in climate research to inform policy

There are excuses but no good ones for this stubborn commitment to error
There will be more to say

Many thanks to the incredible @ISSUESinST which takes editing seriously (rare in publishing these days) & helped to make this article far better than otherwise would have been

And our article is beautifully illustrated as well

Plz share & comment! 🙏

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

13 Jul
A short 🧵 with a preliminary update of my annual analysis of @bp_plc Statistical Review of World Energy

Data: bp.com/en/global/corp…
The 2020 global proportion of carbon-free energy consumption hit a record 16.9% of total energy consumption (up from 15.7% in 2019)

A linear increase of ~1.1%/yr reaches net zero CO2 from FF at ~2100
The pandemic resulted in a big drop in FF consumption

Even so, the challenge of replacing all FF consumption remains pretty much unchanged -- deployment of equivalent of 1 nuclear power plant-eq of C-free energy every day while retiring equal amount of FF

A huge challenge
Read 6 tweets
10 Jul
This is 🔥🔥🔥 Image
In contrast, this probably over the top ... collectively bargained contracts of pro leagues are not going to let WADA in the door ... ever Image
Read 4 tweets
10 Jul
Excellent analysis:

Science Doesn’t Support Idea That Marijuana Aids Athletes’ Performance nytimes.com/2021/07/09/spo…
In addition to the ample evidence of dodgy science in anti-doping, this quote from @wada_ama spokesman @JamesFitz501 is key: “the U.S. has been consistent in its strongly held position that WADA should keep cannabis on the List”
The US government took credit for getting marijuana on the (then) IOC prohibited list as a matter of national anti-drug policy despite greater concern of athletes and officials on actual performance-enhancing drugs

ojp.gov/pdffiles1/Digi… Image
Read 19 tweets
3 Jul
The incredible NW heat dome has led to some interesting contradictory claims

From within the story:

Expert 1= “These extremes are something we knew were coming,”

Expert 2= “It’s well beyond what climate models suggest”

🤷‍♂️ washingtonpost.com/climate-enviro…
Obviously, if models can’t produce the heat dome then event attribution is not possible

Of course, event attribution studies have a high bar to clear: forbes.com/sites/rogerpie…
I came across this (by Sarah Miller HT @dwallacewells) which I think well summarizes challenges to discussing extremes

“I realize I could cite some data to support this but I’m not going to look anything up because I don’t want to know the truth. I’m comfortable with “It’s bad””
Read 4 tweets
2 Jul
Kennedy, M. C. (2017). Cannabis: Exercise performance and sport. A systematic review. Journal of science and medicine in sport, 20(9), 825-829.

“Conclusions:THC does not enhance aerobic exercise or strength”

jsams.org/article/S1440-…
The inclusion of THC on the WADA prohibited list is part of a moral crusade, WADA freely admits

Included on list not because they are doping per se but, “because they are frequently abused in society outside the context of sport”

wada-ama.org/sites/default/…
The WADA committee recommending THC inclusion on prohibited list for reasons of morality includes people who also played a role in banning Caster Semenya — another moral crusade

Mostly white men from US/UK/Australia, elite sport vests too much power in a small subset of people
Read 4 tweets
1 Jul
🚨New Paper coming ... @ISSUESinST
by @jritch & me

How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch With Reality
A failure of self-correction in science has compromised climate science’s ability to provide plausible views of our collective future

I'll post as soon as out of production ...
Our new paper is a tl;dr summary for a broad readership of our recent 21,000-word piece in ERSS on how climate scenarios got off track
doi.org/10.1016/j.erss…

If you are not one of the 7 people who read that magnum opus, then our new paper is for you
When published, I'll also post an accompanying bibliography of our work over the past 20 years on the use/misuse of predictions and projections in climate research and policy

Stay tuned! 🙏
Read 4 tweets

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