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Puru Saxena Profile picture
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14 Jul, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Lots of trolls chirping again!

When I post trades in real-time, trolls claim I'm pumping my book. When I don't post trades in real-time, the same people claim I'm faking trades with the benefit of hindsight.

Since so many have asked, on Tuesday I've sold my $UPST shares.
$UPST has guided for triple digit revenue growth this year but the growth estimates are pretty weak from '22 onwards. Company's valuation is pretty rich given the business slowdown on the horizon.

After thinking about this business for months, there are too many question...
....marks for my taste. Put simply, I just don't see a durable competitive advantage, a genuine secret sauce.

This is why, I've booked a tidy profit and moved on. I may be wrong, the business might turn out to be a big winner but this one isn't for me. "Too tough" pile.
Here are the estimates from Goldman Sach's initiation report.

Have a look at the revenue growth rates in '22 and '23. If this business is truly revolutionary and its "AI" is a game changer, why is revenue growth expected to slow down to just 30% from over 100% this year!?
Wall Street consensus is for just 26%YOY revenue growth in 2023 (even lower than Goldman Sachs).

If $UPST owns an incredible "AI" edge and is upending a massive multi-trillion dollar market (credit), why are analysts expecting just 26%YOY revenue growth two years out? Very odd.

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More from @saxena_puru

Puru Saxena Profile picture
16 Jul
THREAD on hedging -

A number of you have asked how to hedge, so here is a thread....

Hedging allows one to stay long (participate in the upside) during uptrends, but it makes the portfolio "market neutral" during downtrends.

Hedging isn't fool proof and doesn't work...
...perfectly all the time. On some days, the portfolio goes up a little and on other days, it goes down a little (usually less than 50bps) *but* hedging does help in avoiding big drawdowns during stock market turbulence.

Hedging is akin to "fire insurance", it usually costs...
...in terms of some missed upside when the market quickly reverses higher but it pays off big time when there is a major stock market decline or crash.

In those instances, profits from the hedges can be invested in stocks (when they are severely beaten down) and this really...
Read 12 tweets
Puru Saxena Profile picture
7 Jul
Trimming or permanently selling out of winners for no good reason is a terrible idea!

The big returns are generated by holding, not by selling.
By "taking" a 20% or 30% of 40% profit, one misses out on 200% or 300% or 400% gains.

If you sell, you can no longer benefit from those stocks.

Very few companies compound like crazy, best to hold onto them for as long as possible.
IMHO, the reasons when a great stock should be sold -

- Business matures (can't grow)
- Management changes or deteriorates
- The business outlook deteriorates (competition)
- Cash is needed for a younger compounder
- Stock triples/quadruples within months

Hope this is helpful.
Read 4 tweets
Puru Saxena Profile picture
3 Jul
Discovered today that a few anonymous haters (one of whom is a convicted felon - he was imprisoned for defrauding investors out of hundreds of millions) published my "career history" a few weeks ago to smear my reputation.

Their biased summary is an attempt to rewrite history.
Some facts -

I was a Founding Director/major shareholder (one of three business partners) of my first investment management firm which was founded in 2001 (when I was 24 years old).

After discovering questionable conduct, I immediately resigned from that firm, sold...
...my shares and founded my own boutique investment management firm in 2005 which managed capital for companie, family offices and high net worth individuals.

I ran my firm until 2016, which is when I retired from the business and my company was acquired by a Hong Kong...
Read 6 tweets
Puru Saxena Profile picture
30 Jun
1) Portfolio update Jun-end -

$ADYEY $AFTPY $AGC $CRWD $DKNG $DOCU $FVRR $GHVI $GLBE $LSPD $MELI $OZON $PINS $PLTR $ROKU $RTP $SE $SHOP $SNAP $SNOW $TWLO $UPST

Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +731.24% (55.03%pa)
$ACWI +72.91% (12.01%pa)
$SPX +97.96% (15.19%pa)
2) YTD return -

Portfolio +29.38%
$ACWI +11.40%
$SPX +14.41%

Biggest positions -

1) $GLBE 2) $SE 3) $MELI 4) $ROKU 5) $SNAP

New buys - $FVRR
Sales - $CPNG $PATH

Contd....
Commentary -

June turned out to be a good month for my portfolio.

After the spring swoon, growth stocks finally rebounded on the back of declining long dated rates and this benefited my portfolio.

During the month, I made a handful of changes. In terms of sales, I got rid..
Read 14 tweets
Puru Saxena Profile picture
24 Jun
If a business has a super bright future, usually pays to buy shares for the long haul.

Many keep waiting for big pullbacks and miss out on life changing returns.

Few % here or there makes no difference if stock goes up 100s of % over several years.
In my 20+ year career as an investor, I've lost out on most money by NOT buying into super high-quality businesses because their valuations seemed "too high".

Those stocks ended up rallying 100s of % and well, the cheap stuff usually underperformed. Strange but true.
Fortunately, I've learnt from the school of hard knocks ---

Lesson ---> Pay up for quality

Own the best businesses, not the cheapest stocks.
Read 4 tweets
Puru Saxena Profile picture
28 May
1) Portfolio update May-end -

$ADYEY $AFTPY $AGC $CPNG $CRWD $DKNG $DOCU $GHVI $GLBE $LSPD $MELI $OZON $PATH $PINS $PLTR $ROKU $RTP $SE $SHOP $SNAP $SNOW $TWLO $UPST

Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +624.34% (51.72%pa)
$ACWI +69.86% (11.80%pa)
$SPX +93.66% (14.93%pa)
2) YTD return -

Portfolio +11.68%
$ACWI +9.69%
$SPX +11.93%

Biggest positions -

1) $SE 2) $UPST 3) $GLBE 4) $SNOW 5) $MELI

Contd....
3) Commentary -

May was a tough month for growth companies as most related stocks came under the pump before stabilising.

Fortunately, my trend following indicators got me hedged in time and my portfolio remained market-neutral during most of the month which is reflected...
Read 11 tweets

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