Given educational polarization, what if you tried to predict 2020 2-party margin based on nothing other than education split by race (white college, white non-college etc)?
You'd still get a pretty strong correlation. The resulting over/underperformance map is interesting to see
You'd still get a pretty strong correlation. The resulting over/underperformance map is interesting to see
Some thoughts...
[1/] Secular/non-evangelical voters are ones that Democrats perform really well with, which obviously isn't captured with just educational data
[1/] Secular/non-evangelical voters are ones that Democrats perform really well with, which obviously isn't captured with just educational data
[2/] An area's baseline partisanship plays a huge role in determining immediate margins, so I wouldn't take this as gospel or whatever (none of the "OMG Wisconsin's sliding 20 points right in 2022" dooming) -- just a fun experiment to see what'd happen if the trend continues
[3/] Dems strength in the midwest is offset by their weakness in the South, relative to education/race. Probably explains why you saw Texas and Georgia snap hard to the left as Ohio began sliding right. I'd bet on that continuing
[4/] I didn't weight by population in the county regression, so the population skew is a bit of an issue, obviously, given the uneven distribution across counties.
But this is just something I thought would be fun to take a look at.
But this is just something I thought would be fun to take a look at.
also LOL Vermont, with Biden performing 49 points better than expected in it.
and the Rio Grande Valley being a Dem overperformance based on educational splits is...well, interesting, to say the least.
and the Rio Grande Valley being a Dem overperformance based on educational splits is...well, interesting, to say the least.
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