Thread by @ClimateAudit

A new thread on Curveball and how he was eventually exposed as a fabricator.

In theory, source validation (as even FBI James Baker claimed) attempts to validate whether source was in location of supposed meeting or made alleged telephone call, or, as here, presence at accident

2/ a few analysts were suspicious of Curveball prior to Powell's notorious speech to UN and subsequent Iraq invastion, but suspicions ignored. After invasion, none of the project designers named by Curveball knew who he was, contradicting narrative that Curveball part of program

3/ in Sept 2003, inconsistencies began to accumulate. Curveball had claimed to be part of bioweapon program that began in 1995, but it turned out that Curveball had been fired in 1995 and could not have been part of any supposed program.

4/ Curveball's family also reported that he had been out of Iraq for long periods from 1995 to 1998, when he was supposedly working on bioweapons in Iraq. And, watch carefully: he was "not even in Iraq" when 1998 bioweapon accident occurred, "confirmed by travel records".

5/ this is the SAME incident that had been the subject of the original May 2000 Curveball evaluation. The proof ended up being something as mundane as travel records. (If Curveball traveled to Europe, presumably European travel records would have shown this.)

6/ at first, analysts at WINPAC who had been primary Curveball supporters and CIA management found it hard to believe that Curveball had fabricated everything, but by January 2004, after CIA obtained travel records, "most analysts became convinced that Curveball had fabricated"

7/ Tenet was briefed on fabrication concerns on Curveball almost immediately, but CIA middle management reluctant to retreat for both bad reasons (how it would look) and an OK reason for delay (concern that further evidence might vindicate)

8/ in March 2004, CIA finally got access to Curveball - an event comparable to FBI interview of Danchenko on Jan 24, 2017. But watch how two narratives diverge.
Curveball was unable to explain discrepancies, in particular over detail where facts known (wall noticed years earlier)

9/ brought face to face with reality, CIA immediately assessed that Curveball had fabricated reporting. CIA and DIA decisively and immediately "recalled all" reporting based on Curveball.

10/ as bad as the Curveball incident was, the Steele-Danchenko incident was much worse. On January 24, 2017, the FBI had much more and more convincing evidence that Danchenko-Steele had fabricated, but, instead of issuing recall notice, they concealed the evidence of fabrication.

11/ in March 2017, instead of telling Congress and the new administration, that Steele dossier was a fabrication and announcing recall of components of ICA that relied on it, Comey announced existence of collusion investigation into Trump campaign.

12/ it was not until Horowitz Report in December 2019 (Horowitz having re-discovered buried documents on Danchenko) that it was revealed that FBI had interviewed Steele's PSS and full dimensions of fraud began to unravel.

13/ Barr - and even Gonna Graham - both publicly recognized the significance of the January 2017 PSS revelations, with Barr, in particular, stating that that was point at which FBI appeared to him to have gone seriously awry - a point on which I agree.

14/ during 2020, a few documents dribbled out - most notably the memorandum on Danchenko interview that FBI buried. But, for the most part, FBI and DOJ continued to stonewall transparency in (successful) attempt to run out the clock in hopes of Trump election defeat.