Is this Unanticipated or Anticipated Inflation Risk?
This is what economists need to explain to us!
We knew it was coming due to the reflationary policy stance of central banks in the first world, and elsewhere.
But, the augmented rate was not unexpected.
But, this is not the 1970s, when oil price shocks, and other supply-side macroeconomic and microeconomic distortions of the postwar years raised the inflation rate unexpectedly to astronomical heights.
I don't see any massive stagflation developing due to technological gains.
Yes, the "PHILLIPS CURVE" is officially deceased.
won't return again!
Monetarists and some other schools of thought have created hues and cries of the return of the economic phantom, but, no, it won't happen.
Prices and #Unemployment have been disentangled.
we need to do more global research on how inflation rates and the evolution of industrial market structures, supported by anti-trust and competition regulations and laws, could be chiefly responsible for keeping prices stable in the first world?
The biggest signaller of inflation in the past was a well functioning and price transparent bond market in the advanced capitalist economies
Unfortunately, #bonds have been amputated from the business cycles, due to QE and other MMT shenanigans.
Can the currency conversion rates, aka exchange rate, become a more efficient pricing indicator and prognosticator of inflation rates across the ten largest economies?
The jury is out on this!
In this age of data analytics, the analysis of macroeconomic and microeconomic trends and developments has become more exciting.
We have real time dashboards, which can flood you with information, intelligence and knowledge.
Now you don't need to attach yourself to a Reuters Trading Page, to keep yourself updated on financial markets and the economy.
FINTECH Apps working on your smartphone are good enough.
So you will stay ahead of the curve always!
Not to worry about unanticipated inflation ;)
If you are still worried about inflation risk, why not read this monograph.
Convert your risk into opportunity and make some money using wise reasoning.
risk.net/media/download…
#Inflation #Derivatives #Arbitrage #Volatility

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More from @SAH16928046

16 Jul
Should basic human needs be catered to as services within the framework of a market order, where forces of demand and supply shall determine the price for each interaction aka transaction and the social value created for the consumer via production, exchange and consumption?
For e.g. should the receiver of services in lieu of tax money and welfare benefits earmarked by a government in areas such as health and education be treated as consumers in any other industry?
Should we have the option to choose the most efficient hospitals, and schools?
Each public service providing institution should be corporatized?
Each public service institution should have a Profit and Loss A/c and a balance sheet?
Each public service institution should treat recipients as buyers of products and their interactions akin to transactions?
Read 4 tweets
15 Jul
As part of the Financial Literacy Programs, all individuals must learn how to manage their retirement investment proceeds and personal wealth.
Many people misconstrue that such planning is not important and should be solely left to either the employer or the govt!
How wrong!
In most of the developing countries where old-age financial benefits are not sponsored or guaranteed by the government, via social safety nets, the vulnerable people are left at the mercy of the market, extended family network or the philanthropist to help them.
Even private sector firms, which provide access to #provident and #pension fund designed retirement investment planning schemes, are no guarantee, of a safe and smooth exit out of the workforce due to #Systemic Risk which can destabilize the economy or the society in the long run
Read 4 tweets
14 Jul
Late Lee Kuan Yew was right when he said that new businesses require new skills, which in return require more vocational and academic training for the workforce.
Any country aspiring to follow the Asian model of economic development must invest in human capital formation.
Hong Kong under the British, UAE, and Singapore are 3 perfect examples of how certain nations can arbitrage on the inefficiencies which exist in their neighbourhoods.
All three examples serve as a binding case study in #Geospatial #Economics and complex #Agglomeration Benefits
Look at the #City, in the UK!
Are the English-born bankers?
How did they manage to develop a major global financial centre over the last two hundred years?
Let's see how Brexit will affect the mystique which surrounds London as a major financial hub
Read 5 tweets
3 Jul
What quantitative aptitude do Finance and Risk Management require?
@actuarynews @CQFInstitute @GARP_Risk
Mathematics is the Queen of all Natural Sciences.

However, its applications in Social Sciences and its sub-fields such as Economics and Business Studies is growing all the time.

Finance and Risk are broadly categorized as subfields of Microeconomics.
That's my opinion.
The two subjects (Risk and Finance, which I would like to jointly refer to as Risk Finance) share a lot in common with the Pricing Theory, Utility Theory, Portfolio Theory, Risk Pooling, Risk Financing and Risk Sharing Theories, the Moral Hazard Problem,
Read 17 tweets
30 Jun
Every Concept has a Form, as expounded by #Plato.
But, it does not mean, that a complex concept cannot have simple explainable forms?
It can!
All Computational Algorithms that train various Mathematical or Statistical Models are a representation of some theory, which originated as a concept using logical methods of enquiry, having empirical or rational forms.
Model #Parsimony could be best understood in the light of #Occam's Razor.
Read 7 tweets
27 Jun
Top-Down Vs. Bottom-Up Style of Investment Analysis: Risk Versus Research Desk Perspectives
@GARP_Risk @CFAinstitute @CQFInstitute
In the field of Investment Risk and Research Analyses, the research/risk analyst has to make a choice between two asset selection and/or allocation approaches.
The first approach is referred to as the “Top-Down Analysis” and the second is its opposite, the “Bottom-Up Analysis”.
Read 62 tweets

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