Dogecoin creator lays down a brutal thread about why Crypto is not what it appears to be.

This has become a full-blown battle of Narratives...
Nice work by @TheStalwart spotlighting this

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
It is important to recognize the risks we create when working from a Narrative that:

1. We agree with (Confirmation Bias)
2. We disagree with (Cognitive dissonance)
3. We are unaware we lack the skillset to assess the accuracy of (Dunning Kruger)
Crypto's usage by criminals - a feature not a bug - is attracting the wrong kind of attention:

"The Biden admin is cracking down on the use of cryptocurrencies in ransomware attacks through more rigorous tracing of proceeds paid to hackers"

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
One possible outcome is that these independent coins get replaced by centrally controlled digital currency.

"The idea of a government-backed virtual currency has support in policy circles, but Wall Street sees a threat to its consumer-finance dominion."

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Its an idea disliked by criminals and Wall Street alike:

"Imagine logging on to your own account with the U.S. Federal Reserve. With your laptop or phone, you could zap cash anywhere instantly. There’d be no middlemen, no fees, no waiting for deposits or payments to clear."
The Crypto narrative's biggest risk isn't a government crackdown on ransomware criminals, but rather, the wholesale adoption of digital dollars by central banks.

Wil Crypto be a DeFi Libertarian Utopia, or (unironically) a mainstream govt-backed currency?

Narrative goes poof!
We are starting to see data supporting the idea that Crypto prices are indeed manipulated, via @pkedrosky

Don't like Central Bank interventions? Come enjoy our price manipulation!

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More from @ritholtz

8 Jul
Lots of happenings in Residential Real Estate. But be careful not to get caught up focusing on the wrong things -- no, it's not about inflation or NIMBY or PE rentals.

The big issues are technology, ultra-low rates, capital, and changing demographics.

A quick thread

1/
Let's go thru some of the things that matter far less, beginning with prices.

What matters most are not the price paid, but the monthly carrying costs. This is why low rates have a big impact, and tend to send prices higher.

awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/03/what-i…
2/
Next, RRE Inflation.

Try to avoid chart/statistics crimes, like focusing on Year-over-year data from the pandemic lows. Ignorance? Bias? Fraud? I don't, but avoid this kind of garbage.


3/
Read 21 tweets
5 Jul
There are no shortcuts, secrets or get rich quick schemes that work, WITH ONE EXCEPTION:

My 3-day workshop where I reveal the secrets the ultra-rich have shared with me. You cannot afford to miss this all for the low, low price of $4,995.

Sign up here.
thesecretstofabulouswealth.com
If thats too pricey, then read today's Bloomberg column with my 10 Rules of Money

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
And if THAT'S too expensive, well, here is the free summary + list

Bad decisions and poor behavior are the primary reasons why many fail to meet their financial goals.

ritholtz.com/2021/07/bbrg-t… ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
25 Jun
Why Does Anyone Care What Lawrence Summers Thinks? dlvr.it/S2S980
My complaints about the former Treasury Secretary (in decreasing order of importance):

1. Commodities Futures Modernization Act of 2000
2. Repeal of Glass Steagall in 1999
3. Harvard Endowment
I don't really care about his time as Chief Economist at the World Bank, or how he handled the Winklevoss twins vs Zuckerberg / Facebook.

My beef is his poor decision-making on broad public policy issues resulting in immense negative consequences for society.
Read 15 tweets
22 Jun
0 for 14.

That is the track record the "Inflationistas" have amassed in predicting Inflation, Deflation, Disinflation - really ANY "Flation - so far in the 21st century.

0 for 14

My advice: Pour yourself a tall glass of STFU + go find another expertise to pretend to have...
How can any economist have missed 3 decades of deflation?

Automation, global labor arbitrage, digitalization + outsourcing/offshoring all have worked to drive global prices lower.

Missing this and/or ignoring it explains that awful inflation-predicting track record
Hence, why my preferred framework is:

"Deflation, punctuated with spasms of inflation"

Read 13 tweets
21 Jun
“Narrative fallacies” present risks for investors.

When we believe a compelling story that turns out to be untrue, we can end up holding assets worth far less than the story suggested.

ritholtz.com/2021/06/what-i…
I referenced some of the ideas in this last week, but I want to address a few that I did not get to then

Start with the biggest issue:

Investing is hard enough without laboring under false beliefs about markets, stocks, assets & trading.

I am partial to @RayDalio's edict: "Embrace reality & deal with it"

Read 11 tweets
19 Jun
Found it!
Of course, we should always question authority and keep them honest.

But do not conflate this with those who blindly believe what's in their Facebook feed, mostly engage in confirmation bias + refuse to follow basic principles of logic, reason, and science.
There are better ways to make decisions about an inherently unknown + unknowable future with imperfect knowledge under challenging circumstances.

Use a good process to make the best probabilistic choices you can.

It's much better than believing bullshit...
Read 7 tweets

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