It is important to recognize the risks we create when working from a Narrative that:
1. We agree with (Confirmation Bias) 2. We disagree with (Cognitive dissonance) 3. We are unaware we lack the skillset to assess the accuracy of (Dunning Kruger)
Crypto's usage by criminals - a feature not a bug - is attracting the wrong kind of attention:
"The Biden admin is cracking down on the use of cryptocurrencies in ransomware attacks through more rigorous tracing of proceeds paid to hackers"
Its an idea disliked by criminals and Wall Street alike:
"Imagine logging on to your own account with the U.S. Federal Reserve. With your laptop or phone, you could zap cash anywhere instantly. There’d be no middlemen, no fees, no waiting for deposits or payments to clear."
The Crypto narrative's biggest risk isn't a government crackdown on ransomware criminals, but rather, the wholesale adoption of digital dollars by central banks.
Wil Crypto be a DeFi Libertarian Utopia, or (unironically) a mainstream govt-backed currency?
Narrative goes poof!
We are starting to see data supporting the idea that Crypto prices are indeed manipulated, via @pkedrosky
Don't like Central Bank interventions? Come enjoy our price manipulation!
Lots of happenings in Residential Real Estate. But be careful not to get caught up focusing on the wrong things -- no, it's not about inflation or NIMBY or PE rentals.
The big issues are technology, ultra-low rates, capital, and changing demographics.
A quick thread
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Let's go thru some of the things that matter far less, beginning with prices.
What matters most are not the price paid, but the monthly carrying costs. This is why low rates have a big impact, and tend to send prices higher.
Try to avoid chart/statistics crimes, like focusing on Year-over-year data from the pandemic lows. Ignorance? Bias? Fraud? I don't, but avoid this kind of garbage.
That is the track record the "Inflationistas" have amassed in predicting Inflation, Deflation, Disinflation - really ANY "Flation - so far in the 21st century.
0 for 14
My advice: Pour yourself a tall glass of STFU + go find another expertise to pretend to have...
How can any economist have missed 3 decades of deflation?
Automation, global labor arbitrage, digitalization + outsourcing/offshoring all have worked to drive global prices lower.
Missing this and/or ignoring it explains that awful inflation-predicting track record
Of course, we should always question authority and keep them honest.
But do not conflate this with those who blindly believe what's in their Facebook feed, mostly engage in confirmation bias + refuse to follow basic principles of logic, reason, and science.
There are better ways to make decisions about an inherently unknown + unknowable future with imperfect knowledge under challenging circumstances.
Use a good process to make the best probabilistic choices you can.