Why Does Anyone Care What Lawrence Summers Thinks? dlvr.it/S2S980
My complaints about the former Treasury Secretary (in decreasing order of importance):

1. Commodities Futures Modernization Act of 2000
2. Repeal of Glass Steagall in 1999
3. Harvard Endowment
I don't really care about his time as Chief Economist at the World Bank, or how he handled the Winklevoss twins vs Zuckerberg / Facebook.

My beef is his poor decision-making on broad public policy issues resulting in immense negative consequences for society.
None of his errors were more consequential than his support of the Commodities Futures Modernization Act of 2000.

That Enron-sponsored act created an exemption from usual regulations.

CFMA meant:

-No oversight from exchanges,
-No listing of derivative trades;
-No disclosures of risk
-No transparency
-No counter-party information.

Worst of all, these derivatives required zero reserves in case of a claim.

This effectively allowed infinite leverage.
No other traded financial instruments receive this special treatment;

CFMA let AIG underwrite $2.7 trillion in derivatives with zero set aside in reserve. It only took a fractional loss of $2T to destroy AIG, turning it into a ward of the state.

This is what Tom Savage, President, the head of AIG’s Financial Products, said about derivatives:

“The models suggested that the risk was so remote that the fees were almost free money. Just put it on your books and enjoy the money.”

ritholtz.com/2011/02/did-go…
Then there was the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act that repealed Glass Steagall.

I cannot understand why Secretary Summers seemingly got on board every terrible idea Senator Phil Gramm & Alan Greenspan ever had.

ritholtz.com/2015/07/gramms…
Next beef: Deficits.

Endless spending for unfunded tax cuts; Trillions + trillions for an unnecessary war of choice in Iraq.

But fix the damned roads, bridges, electric grid, airports?

"Gee, I'm unsure about this deficit spending," said only the most clueless of Democrats
Inflation:

I don't have to spend much time on this cause the inflation fears have already failed.

ritholtz.com/2021/06/deflat…
And do we really need to discuss the Harvard Endowment changes that took place while he was President there?

theatlantic.com/business/archi…
Boston Globe did some award-winning journalism on the endowment also

archive.boston.com/news/local/mas…
An earlier thread by @EconDerek looks at other aspects of Summers' leadership.

The pattern is the same: Poor decision-making with outsized negative consequences, yet somehow still commanding the respect of policymakers.

Here is @jeannasmialek of the @nytimes explaining why policymakers are STILL enthralled by his flavor of "wisdom," despite the wealth of evidence his public policy judgment has been utterly disastrous.

nytimes.com/2021/06/25/bus…
Yes, yes, we all know he is very smart.

I think of him as a PC with a super high-powered CPU processor but really bad software.

The result: Bad decisions faster.

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More from @ritholtz

22 Jun
0 for 14.

That is the track record the "Inflationistas" have amassed in predicting Inflation, Deflation, Disinflation - really ANY "Flation - so far in the 21st century.

0 for 14

My advice: Pour yourself a tall glass of STFU + go find another expertise to pretend to have...
How can any economist have missed 3 decades of deflation?

Automation, global labor arbitrage, digitalization + outsourcing/offshoring all have worked to drive global prices lower.

Missing this and/or ignoring it explains that awful inflation-predicting track record
Hence, why my preferred framework is:

"Deflation, punctuated with spasms of inflation"

Read 13 tweets
21 Jun
“Narrative fallacies” present risks for investors.

When we believe a compelling story that turns out to be untrue, we can end up holding assets worth far less than the story suggested.

ritholtz.com/2021/06/what-i…
I referenced some of the ideas in this last week, but I want to address a few that I did not get to then

Start with the biggest issue:

Investing is hard enough without laboring under false beliefs about markets, stocks, assets & trading.

I am partial to @RayDalio's edict: "Embrace reality & deal with it"

Read 11 tweets
19 Jun
Found it!
Of course, we should always question authority and keep them honest.

But do not conflate this with those who blindly believe what's in their Facebook feed, mostly engage in confirmation bias + refuse to follow basic principles of logic, reason, and science.
There are better ways to make decisions about an inherently unknown + unknowable future with imperfect knowledge under challenging circumstances.

Use a good process to make the best probabilistic choices you can.

It's much better than believing bullshit...
Read 7 tweets
18 Jun
David Brooks has an interesting discussion today about the resurgence in the US economy -- an American Renaissance. He also discusses Germany + Japan.

While I agree with his take, there are some stunning omissions.

nytimes.com/2021/06/17/opi…
"West Germany and Japan endured widespread devastation during World War II, yet in the years after the war both countries experienced miraculous economic growth"

US shipped 1/6 of our food supply to Europe + Japan.
Can you discuss post-war era NOT discuss the MARSHALL PLAN?
Foreign aid to Western Europe from the United States was $13 billion (or $114 billion in 2020 dollars)

Another $5.9 billion went to Asian countries, almost half of which went to Japan ($2.44 billion), South Korea ($894 million)
Read 16 tweets
16 Jun
"The entire concept behind “bashing forecasters” isn’t simply to suggest one forecast is more valuable than another, but rather, to point out the futility of using forecasts as a basis for making investment decisions."

ritholtz.com/2015/02/no-eve…
Example: This was June 2020.

"The probability is 100% that the markets for 13 of the world’s largest GDP ranked countries, including the US, reached their post-crash highs from Friday June 5, 2020 to Monday June 8, 2020."

realinvestmentadvice.com/markowski-why-…
I don't want to bash any specific analyst or trader; there are always 100s of examples of this.

Look at financial publication in December + January - they are filled with predictions, the vast majority of which - mostly extrapolation or wild ass guesses - end up being wrong
Read 4 tweets
15 Jun
Mom (85) at assisted living in NY, where infection rates are way down + vaxx rates among nation's highest.

New email from Med Chief: fully vaccinated resident tested positive for Covid-19. Facility back on quarantine protocols.

Likely source: Unvaccinated adult family member.
Those who opposed lockdowns saying "stay home if you are scared of the virus, let us live our lives" are now actively putting others at risk by refusing to get vaccinated
COVID-19 is dropping where people are being vaccinated more heavily, rising where they are not.

BUT RISKS REMAIN

Read 13 tweets

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