-No oversight from exchanges,
-No listing of derivative trades;
-No disclosures of risk
-No transparency
-No counter-party information.
Worst of all, these derivatives required zero reserves in case of a claim.
This effectively allowed infinite leverage.
No other traded financial instruments receive this special treatment;
CFMA let AIG underwrite $2.7 trillion in derivatives with zero set aside in reserve. It only took a fractional loss of $2T to destroy AIG, turning it into a ward of the state.
Here is @jeannasmialek of the @nytimes explaining why policymakers are STILL enthralled by his flavor of "wisdom," despite the wealth of evidence his public policy judgment has been utterly disastrous.
That is the track record the "Inflationistas" have amassed in predicting Inflation, Deflation, Disinflation - really ANY "Flation - so far in the 21st century.
0 for 14
My advice: Pour yourself a tall glass of STFU + go find another expertise to pretend to have...
How can any economist have missed 3 decades of deflation?
Automation, global labor arbitrage, digitalization + outsourcing/offshoring all have worked to drive global prices lower.
Missing this and/or ignoring it explains that awful inflation-predicting track record
Of course, we should always question authority and keep them honest.
But do not conflate this with those who blindly believe what's in their Facebook feed, mostly engage in confirmation bias + refuse to follow basic principles of logic, reason, and science.
There are better ways to make decisions about an inherently unknown + unknowable future with imperfect knowledge under challenging circumstances.
Use a good process to make the best probabilistic choices you can.
"West Germany and Japan endured widespread devastation during World War II, yet in the years after the war both countries experienced miraculous economic growth"
US shipped 1/6 of our food supply to Europe + Japan.
Can you discuss post-war era NOT discuss the MARSHALL PLAN?
Foreign aid to Western Europe from the United States was $13 billion (or $114 billion in 2020 dollars)
Another $5.9 billion went to Asian countries, almost half of which went to Japan ($2.44 billion), South Korea ($894 million)
"The entire concept behind “bashing forecasters” isn’t simply to suggest one forecast is more valuable than another, but rather, to point out the futility of using forecasts as a basis for making investment decisions."
"The probability is 100% that the markets for 13 of the world’s largest GDP ranked countries, including the US, reached their post-crash highs from Friday June 5, 2020 to Monday June 8, 2020."
I don't want to bash any specific analyst or trader; there are always 100s of examples of this.
Look at financial publication in December + January - they are filled with predictions, the vast majority of which - mostly extrapolation or wild ass guesses - end up being wrong
Mom (85) at assisted living in NY, where infection rates are way down + vaxx rates among nation's highest.
New email from Med Chief: fully vaccinated resident tested positive for Covid-19. Facility back on quarantine protocols.
Likely source: Unvaccinated adult family member.
Those who opposed lockdowns saying "stay home if you are scared of the virus, let us live our lives" are now actively putting others at risk by refusing to get vaccinated
COVID-19 is dropping where people are being vaccinated more heavily, rising where they are not.