If anyone needs a primer on elderly social care, can recommend this @CPSThinkTank primer by @JethroFElsden & Alex Morton which sets out the main options and the pros and cons thereof. (1/?)
Our conclusion was that Dilnot-style ('cap and insurance') was the cheapest - which is why Whitehall likes it - but the most politically problematic and the least likely to incentivise the creation of additional supply.
By tweaking the 'cap' and 'floor' it is possible to make Dilnot more generous, and protect more of the family home. But that either starts to massively privilege richer families in the South-East with more valuable homes, or hugely increases the cost (or both)
Our report backed our earlier proposal with @DamianGreen to adopt a pension-style system - a decent level of care free for all, with people encouraged to contribute to topping up their care themselves (via an insurance market).
This would be more expensive than vanilla Dilnot but do more to fix the flaws in the market, and bring in extra cash on a voluntary basis.
However, it is worth noting - given @thetimes reporting today thetimes.co.uk/article/johnso… - that Damian also pointed out that there was a need to inject several billion more just to cope with current underfunding.
One of the options he put forward - which much of the media focused on - was an NI increase for over-50s. (The option under consideration now appears to be over-40s.) HMG shouuld be aware that the reaction was not good.
Anyway, we wait to see the details both of the system and the funding. But the thing our paper (and Damian's earlier paper) makes crystal clear is that are no painless options. Which is of course why it's taken so long in the first place... cps.org.uk/research/fixin…
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Ahead of today's vote, it's worth recapping Tory voters' views on foreign aid spending. Namely: they hate it so very much. It is literally up there with 'abolish the monarchy' or 'make Corbyn PM'. See this from @FrankLuntz for @CPSThinkTank
Yes, Tory voters have a distorted view of how much is spent on aid - 29% of them name is as one of the four categories we spend most money on (this set of slides pretty alarming more generally). But that only makes them dislike it more.
The argument is sometimes made by aid's supporters that Tory voters might not like it, but it has a sort of penumbra of morality around it that appeals to Lib Dem-leaning voters in Chesham and places like that.
In a really crap summer, England gave us so much more than we could have asked for. Yes, the draw opened up for us. And yes, Southgate is still not great at game management/talent maximisation. But...
...for the first time in decades, England were a proper team. Cohesion. Discipline. Tactical flexibility. Round pegs, round holes. And they are mostly young players, and brilliant players, and they will grow.
This, the World Cup and the last few Champions Leagues, shows that it's an absolutely brilliant time to be an England fan, or English fan. Southgate and his team deserve enormous credit for that.
We've just published a huge set of polling from @FrankLuntz on the new values and language of British politics. You can find the full thing here, but I thought I'd summarise the most arresting findings. (Warning: long, but worthwhile) cps.org.uk/media/press-re…
First things first: the public is really pissed off! Solid majority for 'fuck 'em all' to both business and political leaders
Likewise, when we asked them to pick the words that represented their feelings towards same, they were overwhelmingly negative
Let me explain. The essay question was to explain what we actually know about the Tory vote, based on the very different results in Batley, Chesham and Hartlepool. Was it all about housing? Hancock? Lockdown? North vs south?
Luckily, @CPSThinkTank is about to publish a massive (and absolutely fascinating) survey by @FrankLuntz on the new language and values of politics and economics. Mostly still under wraps, but one thing I can reveal...
Assuming we win this, Euro 2020 will represent 20% of all England wins in WC/EC knockout games since 1966. If we won the tournament, that would rise to 33%.
We've been really really shit for half a century is what I'm saying.
(Eight wins 1966-2019. This and Germany would be 2/10, and semis and final would be 4/12.)
This is a really important piece from @PhilAldrick. Basically, it turns out much of our picture of what was happening in the British economy in recent decades was wrong. Which has one huge implication (1/?) thetimes.co.uk/article/if-it-…
The new consensus is that growth depends on government. That the state making investment decisions and carrying out microsurgery on the economy is not only desirable but essential.
I’ve always been a naysayer on this. I do not trust the British government (in particular) to allocate capital wisely - to choose the sectors or industries or technologies to support according to some far sighted vision. (See utter disasters passim ad nausea.)