Odds are, most will capitulate in the next 4 weeks if $SILVER decides to do the standard final flush before the big summer rally. It's happened before, it can happen again.
2006 saw another 1 year+ consolidation in silver. This time in August 2007 the following year the false breakdown was even more severe. On the second chart note that gold barely participated in that final selloff to August 16 2007.
2010 had a shorter consolidation for silver, less than 1 year. The major rally that started the next year was still somewhere in August 2011.
The major correction that started the next year at the seasonal MAR/APR top was due in part to the doubling of margin requirements by CME
Currently 2021 looks like a blend of 2005 and 2010. Will we get a final capitulation low into August of this year before a major move up? Time will tell.
One thing to note, silver has never failed to make an ATH if gold has made one the prior year.
Last charts, silver/M2 (log, inflation adjusted with REAL M2) shows an interesting trendline. I have inserted the triangle structures for 2005, 2006, 2010, 2020.
Silver hit literal rock bottom in March 2020 in terms of real M2 broad supply, similar to 2003.
I like to drink bourbon and make crazy charts. I find it interesting that the year 1996 – 2004 rounded bottom is about the same length in total days as the 2011 – 2020 rounded bottom. From that bottom in 1999 we had a 662% increase that took 6 years once the breakout started $GLD
The correction in 2004 right after the breakout dropped gold a little less than 10%. The high was retested, and then it made another low to make a 13% correction.
When gold broke the 2011 high, we had about a 10% correction again.
$GLD $SLV
Gold seasonality ends on SEP 2 on avg for the last 10 years. This “little” correction we have had is actually right on schedule. It is big yes, but that is a testament to the overbought level it reached. $GLD had a daily RSI reading of 90.5, a value only surpassed in 1999 of 92.1