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John Lichfield

17 Jul, 12 tweets, 3 min read

Weekly vax thread.
Usually this Saturday thread is about the French vax programme. I’ll come to that; lots of news on that.
But I’ll start with the biggest news of the day – the bizarre UK govt U-turn forcing quarantine on travellers returning to England from France. 1/12

This weird decision was supposedly taken because the Beta (South African) virus is exploding in France. It’s not. It’s rising slightly in European France and heavily present in the Indian Ocean island of Réunion, which is part of France and counts in the French figures. 2/12

In sum: the Johnson govt is abandoning social restrictions in England on Monday although Covid cases in UK are booming BUT imposing restrictions on travellers from Fr because of a problem which the French govt doesn’t think is a problem. Diverting attention? Looking tough? 3/12

@nicolasberrod

The graph below by @nicolasberrod shows the gap between the rise in new cases in Fr and UK.
According to the most recent Fr govt study the Beta and Gamma (Brazilian) variants TOGETHER make up 10.7% of a sample of new cases in France. (Delta variant meanwhile is over 70%). 4/12

Beta/Gamma ARE rising slightly but nothing like Delta (which probably came to France from UK as did Alpha). If they are 11% of new Fr cases Beta/Gamma now produce around 660 case a day – one third of which are in Reunion 10,000k's away (averaging 200 cases a day, all Beta).
5/12

What on earth was the reason to reverse late on a Friday the recent decision that UK-vaccinated travellers could return from France without quarantine? My guess is… The Belarussian tribute act now governing UK wanted to look tough. Bashing France is always a good standby. 6/12

Now the French vax programme….
There has been an extraordinary turnaround in the numbers since Macron’s announcement last Mon that access to bars/restos/long-haul trains etc would be limited from 1 Aug to those with a health pass (neg. test, C19 recovery or double-vax. 7/12

Around 5m appointments for 1st vaccinations have been taken out since then. Many more people have rushed to no-appointment vax centres. Yesterday France smashed its record for jabs in one day – 879,597. There were 381,304 1st jabs, the highest figure for more than a month.
8/12

Macron’s decision has angered some people. Demos are planned in scores of places today, following those on 14 July. Violence is likely from the usual suspects on the ultra-left. Other protesters will range from sincere anti-vaxxers to anti-Macrons and anti-everythings. 9/12

The majority of Fr people (over 60%) approve Macron’s decisions (which also make vaccination compulsory for health workers). The rush for appointments mean that Fr should pass the 40m 1st vaxes threshold by the end of the month (not end-Aug as feebly projected by the govt). 10/12

Before Macron’s speech 1st jabs had slumped to 175,000 a day. They have now jumped to 223,000 a day (more like an average of 300,000+ in the last few days). Over 37m Fr people 12+ have been 1st-vaxxed (incl. 1m 12-18 yrs old). Taking adults alone, this is 69.4% of the pop. 11/12

On the other hand, Delta (not Beta) is sending French C19 cases rocketing upwards again. There were almost 11,000 new cases yesterday/ So far there's no impact on acute cases/deaths, which remain at the lowest for a year.
It's going to be a strange summer...

12/12

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More from @john_lichfield

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

14 Jul

Weekly French Covid thread

Two numbers justify Macron’s big stick approach to vaccination in his TV address on Monday.
1. There were 6,950 C19 cases yesterday, bringing the daily av. to 4,324 (70% up in a week).
2. 2.5m people have signed up for 1st jabs since he spoke.
1/10

There was an instant impact yesterday – a new record of 792,339 jabs of all kinds and 269,776 1st shots (which had been running at below 200,000 a day).
The Doctolib site now reckons that France will cross the threshold of 40m 1st shots (circa 77% of adults) in 10 days.
2/10

The original target date for France to reach 40m first shots was tomorrow but the government foolishly put it back last month to the end of August. The new target may now be reached five weeks early. Coercion works, it seems.
3/10.

Read 10 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

12 Jul

President Macron went further than expected in actions to check the Delta variant in his TV address tonight. There will be compulsory vaccination for health workers and others in contact with the vulnerable but he warned that compulsory jabs for ALL may also be considered. 1/4

The digital health pass demanded for access to big public events (double vaccinaton, proof of recovery from Covid or negative test) will be extended in 2 stages – to all events with 50+ people from 22 July and to cafes, restos, long-distance trains/buses and hosps from Aug.
2/4

To encourage people to get vaxxed, there will be charges for Covid tests from Sept. On other issues, Macron said he would revive pensions reform shelved because of the pandemic – but only when the health crisis was over. In other words, not before next April’s election. 3/4

Read 4 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

7 Jul

Weekly French Covid thread
Any hope of France containing the Delta variant can be abandoned. Delta’s share of new cases has doubled again in the last week to 40%. Case numbers and the incidence rate are climbing once more. The figures remain small but that won’t last.
1/10

President Macron has convened a meeting of the health defence council today. Apart from urging more people to get vaccinated (and those numbers are also rising again) it’s not clear what the government plans to do. No return to social restrictions is envisaged so far.
2/10

The daily average of cases in Fr. has risen to 2,534, from 1,835 a week ago. The incidence rate – cases per 100,000 people/7 days – was 24.1 on Sat, compared to 18.5 a week before. Overall numbers are not huge but they conceal strong surges in some areas and some age groups. 3/10

Read 10 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

26 Jun

Weekly French vaccination thread.
A confusing week – worrying in some respects; encouraging in others.
Demand for 1st vaccinations has slumped again and the Delta variant has jumped to 10% of new cases. On the other hand, 2nd jabs are booming and cases remain very low. 1/12

First doses have dropped to an average of around 200,000 a day, compared to 400,000 in late May and an average of nearly 300,000 for the whole of June. Overall, the vax rate remains on a high plateau of just under 600,000 because of the record rate of 2nd jabs. 2/12

The government is disturbed by the collapse in demand for 1st jabs. (But it institutionalised the slump by shifting the target for 40m 1st jabs from 15 July to 31 Aug.) Efforts are to be made to re-ignite demand with “no appointment” vax-centres and vaxxing in malls etc. 3/12

Read 12 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

23 Jun

Weekly French Covid Thread

All pandemic figures are excellent in France, save one: the relentless advance of the Delta variant. Almost 7% of new cases are the Delta form of C19, according to the latest stats. In the Paris area, they jumped to from 4% to 9.6% in a few days. 1/10

The actual number of cases of Covid of any kind is very low- the lowest since last summer. Deaths and acute hospital cases have fallen sharply for the eighth week in a row. The incidence rate nationwide is 24.1 (cases per 100,000 people/7 days). In April it was 300+. 2/10

But how long can that last with the faster-moving Delta variant now 98% of cases in UK and spreading fast in other countries (see chart, showing change in last month)? The epidemiologist Dominique Costagliola says it's “very probable” Delta will be dominant in France soon.
3/10

Read 10 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

19 Jun

Weekly French vaccination thread.
France’s vaccination rate hit a new record this week – 581,708 a day – even though 1st doses slumped.
Second doses and complete vaccinations (not quite the same) are booming. But demand for 1st doses is slackening, as forecast last week. 1/12

First doses, though reasonably high, are being eroded by complacency (as the pandemic falls away) and by resistance from the vax-shy and vax-lazy in older age groups. 1st shots are now averaging 268,772 daily - short of the 306,000 needed to reach 40m first vaxes by 15 July. 2/12

BUT...
PM Jean Castex shifted the goalposts (without anyone noticing much).
He gave end-Aug as a new deadline for 40m 1st jabs – which is Extremely Unambitious (about 112,000 shots a day, below half the current rate). He also said he expected 35m to be fully-vaxxed by then. 3/12

Read 12 tweets

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