My reaction to the news today? Well, *of course* Saj would have Covid two days before the VC Day celebrations! Of course he bloody would. This is the UK, after all, where the pandemic is permanently mired in irony as well as ineptitude. Let’s take stock as 19 Jul approaches. 1/20
2/20 Only in the UK would we be hitting 50k+ Delta cases a day and climbing, while telling kids they can go clubbing again and pub-goers that they can prop up bars.
3/20 Only in the UK would the Chief Medical Officer publicly back the opening, but then tell people to be careful. And then suggest that we might only have a five-week window before we lockdown again. (Make the most of it, folks!)
4/20 Only in the UK would the bullish unlocking policy have been driven by the sudden replacement of a minister, who’d been found in a tabloid clinch with an aide (in defiance of his own health regulations).
5/20 But the stupidity and confusion pervades every aspect of our response to coronavirus, doesn’t it? What about the so-called #pingdemic from the NHS track and trace app, for example?
6/20 The sheer idiocy of this app is almost beyond description. If I don’t want to download it, I don’t have to. I *never* get pinged. So people self-isolating are effectively self-selecting.
7/20 If the app tells them to self isolate (random encounter with unspecified person), it’s just advice. But if someone phones them up and tells them to do it, it’s compulsory. That’s right, isn’t it? 🤔
8/20 When cases are low and we’re all trying to *avoid* each other, a ping to say you slipped up makes some kind of sense. But when 1% of the population has rona? The Metropolitan Line closes. google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.…
9/20 The UK is a country where if you’re wandering around the corridors of an office to find a meeting room, you wear a mask. But once you’re *in* the meeting with other people, you take it off.🤔
10/20 Kids are put into ‘bubbles’ in schools, but mix on public transport while travelling to and from the site and socialise with each other outside. 🤔
11/20 Venues are encouraged to make themselves ‘Covid-secure’ through sanitiser, signs, ventilation, one-way systems and whatever. But this supposed Covid security has never been a defence against being closed by the government.
12/20 We have internalised the endless mantras about hand-gel and spray and Boris’ 2x Happy Birthday, without any serious scientific evidence that it is more than #hygienetheatregoogle.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theg…
13/20 So there has been plenty of stupidity and confusion on the part of the government all round. And that’s before we even get into late lockdowns, crony contracts, PPE shortages and all the rest. But the stupidity extends to their opponents too.
14/20 The UK is the country where the opposition says we should prevent all avoidable deaths from Covid, but understandably doesn’t advocate the only policy that would actually achieve that goal: reintroduction of lockdown.
15/20 It’s a country in which we were told normal life would resume after the vulnerable were vaccinated. And then it would resume when a wider group was vaccinated. And then best to delay another month. What’s the harm?
16/20 And now we should only resume when *every* adult is double vaccinated. Anyone who thought anything different never understood Covid. And if we want herd immunity, we need to vaccinate kids too.
17/20 But who said that vaccines alone would allow us to get on top of Covid? They’re not foolproof. Maybe we should keep mitigations forever? What’s the harm of masks and distancing? It’s like wearing a seatbelt.
18/20 Our Covid lockdown meant no flu deaths. So perhaps keep the restrictions to counter flu? Particularly as a resurgence is threatened because of… err… our suppression of the bug 🤔google.co.uk/amp/s/www.inde…
19/20 The government is accused of pursuing a ‘herd immunity’ strategy through infection. But as numbers of young people seeking their first jab decline and only half of parents say they’d let their kids have a shot, will we ever achieve it through vaccine alone? Probably not.
20/20 The UK at Freedom Day 2021. Divided between people who bluster that we can ride out Covid and learn to live with it and those who advocate more vaccination but are never satisfied that it can really protect us enough to unlock. Desperate times.
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In political life, there is inevitably a difference between what people are able to say publicly and think privately. As I haven’t been involved in frontline @UKLabour politics for many years, I am happy to say publicly what many moderates will be thinking to themselves. 1/16
2/16 Starmer is a decent enough guy. Bright, well meaning, broadly on the right side of most major political debates. But we know in our water we’re probably not looking at a Prime Minister. Something is missing. Perhaps an intangible quality.
3/16 Miliband and Kinnock were decent, intelligent men who lacked a certain something too. There’s a pattern here that @UKLabour probably needs to address.
With all the debate and angst within @UKLabour and the calls from Corbynite MPs for shift back to the left, it's worth taking a little magical history tour. Let's go back exactly 40 years - to the Labour victory in the Greater London Council elections of 7 May 1981... 1/18
2/18 While many will recall that this was the start of Ken Livingstone's notorious leftist administration at County Hall, what is less well remembered is that the campaign was fought by a moderate leader - Andrew McIntosh. He was toppled the next day by the hard left.
3/18 The 'palace coup' in the GLC Labour Group ensured that Livingstone became leader and a coterie of other left-wingers (John McDonnell, Paul Boateng, Valerie Wise, Dave Wetzel and others) were set to become influential committee chairs.
Ok, I know I'm going to stir up some controversy here and probably should live the quite life, but here goes. I think that when we come to write the history of the Covid pandemic, many of the trite assumptions of the first six, eight, ten months may prove to be myths. 1/15
2/15 We heard a lot about Germany and South Korea, for instance. If only we'd followed their example, we'd have done so much better. Today, ICU beds in Seoul are near capacity. Lockdown looms for the first time. edition.cnn.com/2020/12/16/asi…
3/15 The German response has been hampered by the country's federal political structure - laissez-faire Länder resisting more stringent lockdown measures proposed by Merkel's government. Now, hundreds of deaths a day. theguardian.com/world/2020/dec…
Some thoughts on the debate over the UK Xmas rona regulations. First of all, public opinion is ostensibly against relaxation, which gives the government some wriggle room. 57% say the tier system should remain in place over the festive period. Interesting. 1/8
2/8 I suspect this is the politically correct answer to pollsters and that a proportion of people who oppose the non-disty Christy *would* meet up with people outside their bubble if the government continues to say that it is ok. But they kind of hope they'll be *told* it's not.
3/8 Here's the thing. These decisions are actually very difficult. My father is 84, has advanced Parkinson's. My father-in-law is 88, profoundly deaf, and on his own. I don't want them put at risk, but I don't want them isolated at Christmas.
It's important to keep watching the Trump presidential campaign and the deranged incumbent's pronouncements. In his Twitter feed, there is an ever-increasing emphasis on the fact that any election result cannot be trusted and that the result may never be clear. 1/7
2/7 I think the calculation in the Trump camp is that the election is already lost because of Covid and the economic slump. They must have a lot of private polling from the swing states suggesting that scraping a win in the electoral college is now a real long shot.
3/7 They'll throw all they can at Biden. He's Sleepy Joe, who's never let out of the basement. He's in the grip of the hard left. Harris is the real power behind the throne. And a vote for the Democrats is a vote for Antifa and anarchy. But they know it won't be enough.
I think the decision to abruptly reverse the air corridor to Spain will be another turning point for trust in the government. It seems strange to draw a parallel with Dominic Cummings, but at a psychological level, these issues are related. 1/10
2/10 Behavioural scientists talked about the issue of equity at the time of the Barnard Castle affair. We obey the rules because we believe - perhaps naively - that they apply equally to everyone. When it's clear they don't, we feel anger and resentment. Trust has broken down.
3/10 A slightly different thing is happening with the quarantine rules, but it's clearly connected. People flew out to Spain having been told they *wouldn't* have to self-isolate on return. They are now being told that the goalposts have shifted and will resent it.