Thread by @PDWilliamsGWU

1/ The UN🇺🇳 & @_AfricanUnion🟩 have now both conducted "independent" assessments of how best to provide international support to #Somalia🇸🇴 after 2021. The 🇺🇳 team recommended continuing with a reconfigured @amisomsomalia, the AU🟩 team a hybrid AU-UN multidimensional mission.

2/ The AU🟩 team's envisaged AU-led-UN-hybrid mission (AU-UNMIS) would be 50% police (IPOs + FPUs), 35% military, 15% civilian personnel with expanded political powers for the head (Joint🇺🇳🟩 Special Representative). Overall personnel numbers r unspecified.

3/ The @AUC_PAPS appears to want the hybrid AU-UNMIS to be comprised of only #African personnel but financed💰 entirely by the UN's🇺🇳 assessed peacekeeping contributions. I was unclear about the logistics & mission support model the AU🟩 team envisage.

4/ The UN🇺🇳 assessment team also considered a future hybrid / joint AU-UN mission for #Somalia🇸🇴. But they rejected it as undesirable for the following reasons 👇

5/ The #Somali🇸🇴 Federal Government has also apparently rejected the AU🟩 team's report. This comes after the FGS not engaging with the AU assessment team until after the final draft was concluded.

https://twitter.com/MOALIMUU/status/1416354047351742466?s=20

6/ In Dec. 2020, the UN🇺🇳 team assessed 4 options for #PeaceOperations in #Somalia🇸🇴 post-2021
- A UN🇺🇳 stabilization operation (eg @UN_MINUSMA🇺🇳🇲🇱)
- A Joint AU-UN operation w an #African identity
- An ad hoc regional coalition (eg #G5SahelJF)
- A reconfigured @amisomsomalia

7/ The UN🇺🇳 team recommended the last option: a continuation of #AMISOM but in reconfigured form with a new CONOPS, and with its principal focus being operational support for the #Somali🇸🇴 security forces (ie SNA, SPF, NISA).

8/ So with 2 different recommendations coming out of the UN🇺🇳 & AU🟩 review teams and the FGS rejecting the AU🟩 one, we'll wait and see what happens next. Also worth noting: the original UN🇺🇳 plan was for a single independent assessment not 2 separate ones.

9/ Whatever #PeaceOperation comes next, it will need answers to some big, tricky questions:
-What source(s) of financing?
-What mandate & force posture?
-What no. & type of personnel?
-What logistics & mission support model?
-What relationship to #Somali🇸🇴 security forces?
TBC...