$FIVN a thread...

Lede
Spotlight Top Pick Five9 (FIVN) has been acquired by Zoom in an all stock transaction.

Story
Five9 was a Spotlight Top Pick placing it in the second circle of this logic diagram:

We added the company to Top Picks for $63.69 on 8-26-2019.

/1
This entry date and price has been verified by the third-party audit firm Krost. Please feel free to visit their website.

As of this writing the stock is trading at $177.6, up 179% since added to Top Picks in less than two-years.

/2
The stock will likely close higher tomorrow, and we will make that final mark at the close.

Conclusion
When we added Five9 to Top Picks, it had little fanfare and little social media disturbances.

/3
While the cognoscenti saw it for it was, much of the ‘find a great stock with a scanner’ crowd never minded Five9.

That was to our benefit.

The company obliterated the 20% revenue growth estimates to grow 45% last year while driving higher and higher profitability.

/4
We believed that call centers were a massive industry spread across the globe. The vast majority are not cloud based, and most are nothing but telephony.

This leaves customers unhappy, and costs spiraling out of control.

/5
Along comes a new player with a new idea — turn the customer service portion of the business into a technology hub — insert AI, go beyond telephony, add data analytics, put it in the cloud, and turn it all into a profit center.

/6
Make customers happier, faster — make corporations more profitable.

This is the thematic shift coming to the call center and Five9 is leading the charge. The market is huge – it’s changing, and we believe Five9 will be the winner.

/7
Now, the giant in the communications space, Zoom (ZM) has voted with us, for a price tag of nearly $15 billion.

At CML Pro we focus on the future — not as in the next year, or even 3-years, but as in the next decade, or even two decades...

/8
We focus on the world changing trends that will occur, irrespective of recessions, booms and busts, interest rates, even wars.

A stock scanner isn’t alpha — but when others use them it does provide us an opportunity to generate alpha by...

/9
... doing research that goes deeper, and ventures to think critically.

It’s the companies that power these trends, that are the pick-axes to the gold rush, that we have identified as our Top Picks. Let volatility happen, and markets crash.

...

/10
Let recessions happen, and economies spasm. That’s natural — and it will happen.

We are focused on how the world is changing, and in that space, we have confidence that nothing can stop these trends.

/11
Five9 has graduated.

We will find others, and they will be ignored, and that’s exactly how we like it.

Learn more about CML Pro
bit.ly/CMLPro

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More from @OphirGottlieb

19 Jul
$BIGC is an underappreciated growth story. It just is.

Q1 '21:
ARR +43%
Rev +41% vs 36% Q1 '20
ACV > $2K +83% vs 79% Q1 '20
Enterprise now 57% of revenue

Estimates are too low (image).

But, that's not even the story. The story has far more depth.

...

/1
$BIGC @BigCommerce

Even now, operating leverage is apparent.

But that's not the story either...

/2
$BIGC

Its enterprise offering is stellar and industry insiders are willing to say it out loud.

Shopify is meant for the companies that want everything all in one place — easy, contained, managed.

(Long $SHOP since $66)

...

/3
Read 9 tweets
9 Jul
CML Pro members, we have an updated little post on $PINS in Community.

/1
$PINS

If we use the Historical Estimates Tools in CML Pro (available to you for free), we see that analysts, in the past, have had a hard time keeping up with Pinterest’s actual growth versus analyst estimates:

/2
To put it into words:

In July of 2020, the consensus analyst estimates for fiscal 2022 and 20023 revenue for Pinterest were $2.1B and $2.4B, respectively.

We note that the implied estimate of growth from 2022 to 2023 was about 14%.

/3
Read 7 tweets
1 Jul
A thread on the option speculation webinar today:

(The link to register for free is at the end of this thread).

Make sure this is what you want, or it's not a good use of your time, which I do honor.

...

/1
Two conclusions will come from this webinar.

A group that will say, ‘ya know, that was great, but I don’t want to speculate with options now that I see what that phrase actually means for a successful trader.’

...

/2
And I so dearly honor that point of view. It is a high intellect point of view, in my opinion.

Then there will be a group that will say, ‘shit, this is hard, but I want to do it. It’s worth it.’

/3
Read 9 tweets
28 Jun
A thread on the underappreciated importance of a user base on a platform that in its early stages isn't necessarily very impressive and/or doesn't necessarily have an obviously profitable direction.

/1
Let's start with $TWLO, which I am long.

At first, if we just hush up all the fantastical names that non technologists and amateur investors threw around (like CPaaS), it was really just this:

/2
1. A very clean and easy API.
2. To send text messages (SMS).

Blah, blah the rah, rah, that's what it was.

It filled a need and it did so very, very easily, but it wasn't a business in and of itself that was obviously profitable.

/3
Read 38 tweets
23 Jun
A short thread..

Somethings that some institutions definitely get while some do not, and therefore some non institutional investors don't get while some do:

/1
Think of a website with room for four advertisements but only two are taken (for example).

This leads to lower CPMs in short term as well as slack.

But advertising follows eyeballs (just ask the $FB bears in 2010).

/2
The eyeballs are on streaming TV and they are coming from (1) linear TV (2) AND the web.

As @theinformation noted today, 12% of YouTube ads used to be viewed on CTV. Now they are at 40%.

/3
Read 16 tweets
11 Jun
Thread

$GLBE

Anyone doing actual analysis (would love to see it).

Profit margin (in long term) starts with gross margin. then gets smaller to bottom line.

But, for young companies, operating margin doesn't matter yet.

What does matter is the aspiration in 5+ years.

...

/1
$GLBE

...

So, we can start with GM as our 'max' and then worry about the rest later.

When I look at this company, with 5 minutes of effort, so *very* little effort, I see something icky...

...

/2
$GLBE

Gross Margin per cent:

$GLBE: 31%
-
$SHOP 54%
$BIGC 79%
$JMIA 69%
$WISH 61%

I don't know the business well enough to even comment other than, 'well that's low.'

Perhaps it's just a matter of time. But, generally GM% hits close to scale very quickly as we see above

/3
Read 6 tweets

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