Tweet

Ophir Gottlieb

19 Jul, 9 tweets, 3 min read

$BIGC is an underappreciated growth story. It just is.

Q1 '21:
ARR +43%
Rev +41% vs 36% Q1 '20
ACV > $2K +83% vs 79% Q1 '20
Enterprise now 57% of revenue

Estimates are too low (image).

But, that's not even the story. The story has far more depth.

...

/1

@BigCommerce

$BIGC @BigCommerce

Even now, operating leverage is apparent.

But that's not the story either...

/2

$BIGC

Its enterprise offering is stellar and industry insiders are willing to say it out loud.

Shopify is meant for the companies that want everything all in one place — easy, contained, managed.

(Long $SHOP since $66)

...

/3

BigCommerce is built for the other e-commerce brand; where picking and choosing software and APIs is seen not as a burden, but as a benefit.

Where selecting best of breed rather than closed ecosystem is a benefit, not a burden.

...

/4

The phrase that describes BigCommerce would be “the seamless integration of endless choices of partners,” whereas we would describe Shopify as “fully integrated out of the box.”

This opens up a huge new market...

/5

@StatistaCharts

Global B2B e-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV):

(via @StatistaCharts )

/6

These number can be somewhat misleading as a huge amount of B2B e-commerce happens in market places, where competitors sit side-by-side, rather than the customary one brand one site B2C world.

So, dismiss the raw numbers and see the trend.

/7

To be clear, BigCommerce isn’t really going after companies with established modern sites, it is going after the companies that either do not have dedicated sites or that use a legacy product (like one built in house).

/8

This is maybe 5% of the story, but it's a good one.

The real story is best told with deeper analysis and then a conversation with their executives.

We call that CML Pro.
bit.ly/CMLPro

We call it edge.

/9

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More from @OphirGottlieb

Ophir Gottlieb

@OphirGottlieb

19 Jul

$FIVN a thread...

Lede
Spotlight Top Pick Five9 (FIVN) has been acquired by Zoom in an all stock transaction.

Story
Five9 was a Spotlight Top Pick placing it in the second circle of this logic diagram:

We added the company to Top Picks for $63.69 on 8-26-2019.

/1

This entry date and price has been verified by the third-party audit firm Krost. Please feel free to visit their website.

As of this writing the stock is trading at $177.6, up 179% since added to Top Picks in less than two-years.

/2

The stock will likely close higher tomorrow, and we will make that final mark at the close.

Conclusion
When we added Five9 to Top Picks, it had little fanfare and little social media disturbances.

/3

Read 12 tweets

Ophir Gottlieb

@OphirGottlieb

9 Jul

CML Pro members, we have an updated little post on $PINS in Community.

/1

$PINS

If we use the Historical Estimates Tools in CML Pro (available to you for free), we see that analysts, in the past, have had a hard time keeping up with Pinterest’s actual growth versus analyst estimates:

/2

To put it into words:

In July of 2020, the consensus analyst estimates for fiscal 2022 and 20023 revenue for Pinterest were $2.1B and $2.4B, respectively.

We note that the implied estimate of growth from 2022 to 2023 was about 14%.

/3

Read 7 tweets

Ophir Gottlieb

@OphirGottlieb

1 Jul

A thread on the option speculation webinar today:

(The link to register for free is at the end of this thread).

Make sure this is what you want, or it's not a good use of your time, which I do honor.

...

/1

Two conclusions will come from this webinar.

A group that will say, ‘ya know, that was great, but I don’t want to speculate with options now that I see what that phrase actually means for a successful trader.’

...

/2

And I so dearly honor that point of view. It is a high intellect point of view, in my opinion.

Then there will be a group that will say, ‘shit, this is hard, but I want to do it. It’s worth it.’

/3

Read 9 tweets

Ophir Gottlieb

@OphirGottlieb

28 Jun

A thread on the underappreciated importance of a user base on a platform that in its early stages isn't necessarily very impressive and/or doesn't necessarily have an obviously profitable direction.

/1

Let's start with $TWLO, which I am long.

At first, if we just hush up all the fantastical names that non technologists and amateur investors threw around (like CPaaS), it was really just this:

/2

1. A very clean and easy API.
2. To send text messages (SMS).

Blah, blah the rah, rah, that's what it was.

It filled a need and it did so very, very easily, but it wasn't a business in and of itself that was obviously profitable.

/3

Read 38 tweets

Ophir Gottlieb

@OphirGottlieb

23 Jun

A short thread..

Somethings that some institutions definitely get while some do not, and therefore some non institutional investors don't get while some do:

/1

Think of a website with room for four advertisements but only two are taken (for example).

This leads to lower CPMs in short term as well as slack.

But advertising follows eyeballs (just ask the $FB bears in 2010).

/2

@theinformation

The eyeballs are on streaming TV and they are coming from (1) linear TV (2) AND the web.

As @theinformation noted today, 12% of YouTube ads used to be viewed on CTV. Now they are at 40%.

/3

Read 16 tweets

Ophir Gottlieb

@OphirGottlieb

11 Jun

Thread

$GLBE

Anyone doing actual analysis (would love to see it).

Profit margin (in long term) starts with gross margin. then gets smaller to bottom line.

But, for young companies, operating margin doesn't matter yet.

What does matter is the aspiration in 5+ years.

...

/1

$GLBE

...

So, we can start with GM as our 'max' and then worry about the rest later.

When I look at this company, with 5 minutes of effort, so *very* little effort, I see something icky...

...

/2

$GLBE

Gross Margin per cent:

$GLBE: 31%
-
$SHOP 54%
$BIGC 79%
$JMIA 69%
$WISH 61%

I don't know the business well enough to even comment other than, 'well that's low.'

Perhaps it's just a matter of time. But, generally GM% hits close to scale very quickly as we see above

/3

Read 6 tweets

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