$JMIA @Jumia_Group

A thread

Some cool things turning the corner (as of last Q).

Start boring (ish), move to headier...

1. Annual Active Accounts (AAC)

(yellow is consensus estimate for Q2)

That would be 48% in two-years

/1 Image

2. The move to Marketplace (a platform) and away from first party (1P)

Move from 44% in Q2 2019 to 74% in Q1 2021

/2 Image
3. This move has thrust gross margin per cent and gross per cent after fulfillment up.

GM % from 43% in Q2 2019 to 74% in Q1 2021

GM % After Fulfillment from 2% in Q2 2019 to 23% in Q1 2021

/3 Image
4. This has led to actual Euros - Here is gross profit Euros (TTM)

From 76.3 million in Q1 2019 (TTM) to 94.8 million in Q1 2021.

/4 Image
5. Then we can turn to the little known but soon to be known reality that Jumia has an advertising business.

It grew 26% in FY 2020, 30% in Q4 and 35.7% in Q1.


The real story, not these little "ah, ha, OK, interesting" points, but the guts of it goes far, far deeper.

That's what we do at CML Pro, and you can too.

That's our edge.

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More from @OphirGottlieb

20 Jul
$ROKU The $NFLX sub miss is good news for Roku and something their CFO spoke about with us.

Dollars from Netflix = $0

More competition, all the others drive $ to Roku.

This is very good news unless you believe streaming in general is a problem (it isn't) in the long run.
Don't react.


Have an apparatus, something, that goes deeper than Twitter. Please.
As the CFO has said to us, $Roku watches the amount of time ppl spend on $NFLX and it has gone from 70% (ish) to 50% (ish) as of a few quarters ago.

They want this, and yes, Netflix is still that powerful.

Join CML Pro. This should be obvious. bit.ly/CMLPro
Read 4 tweets
19 Jul
$BIGC is an underappreciated growth story. It just is.

Q1 '21:
ARR +43%
Rev +41% vs 36% Q1 '20
ACV > $2K +83% vs 79% Q1 '20
Enterprise now 57% of revenue

Estimates are too low (image).

But, that's not even the story. The story has far more depth.


$BIGC @BigCommerce

Even now, operating leverage is apparent.

But that's not the story either...


Its enterprise offering is stellar and industry insiders are willing to say it out loud.

Shopify is meant for the companies that want everything all in one place — easy, contained, managed.

(Long $SHOP since $66)


Read 9 tweets
19 Jul
$FIVN a thread...

Spotlight Top Pick Five9 (FIVN) has been acquired by Zoom in an all stock transaction.

Five9 was a Spotlight Top Pick placing it in the second circle of this logic diagram:

We added the company to Top Picks for $63.69 on 8-26-2019.

This entry date and price has been verified by the third-party audit firm Krost. Please feel free to visit their website.

As of this writing the stock is trading at $177.6, up 179% since added to Top Picks in less than two-years.

The stock will likely close higher tomorrow, and we will make that final mark at the close.

When we added Five9 to Top Picks, it had little fanfare and little social media disturbances.

Read 12 tweets
9 Jul
CML Pro members, we have an updated little post on $PINS in Community.


If we use the Historical Estimates Tools in CML Pro (available to you for free), we see that analysts, in the past, have had a hard time keeping up with Pinterest’s actual growth versus analyst estimates:

To put it into words:

In July of 2020, the consensus analyst estimates for fiscal 2022 and 20023 revenue for Pinterest were $2.1B and $2.4B, respectively.

We note that the implied estimate of growth from 2022 to 2023 was about 14%.

Read 7 tweets
1 Jul
A thread on the option speculation webinar today:

(The link to register for free is at the end of this thread).

Make sure this is what you want, or it's not a good use of your time, which I do honor.


Two conclusions will come from this webinar.

A group that will say, ‘ya know, that was great, but I don’t want to speculate with options now that I see what that phrase actually means for a successful trader.’


And I so dearly honor that point of view. It is a high intellect point of view, in my opinion.

Then there will be a group that will say, ‘shit, this is hard, but I want to do it. It’s worth it.’

Read 9 tweets
28 Jun
A thread on the underappreciated importance of a user base on a platform that in its early stages isn't necessarily very impressive and/or doesn't necessarily have an obviously profitable direction.

Let's start with $TWLO, which I am long.

At first, if we just hush up all the fantastical names that non technologists and amateur investors threw around (like CPaaS), it was really just this:

1. A very clean and easy API.
2. To send text messages (SMS).

Blah, blah the rah, rah, that's what it was.

It filled a need and it did so very, very easily, but it wasn't a business in and of itself that was obviously profitable.

Read 38 tweets

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