Thread by @SamCoatesSky

Tomorrow Lord Frost will set out changes to operation of NI protocol (NIP)

It could:

1. Threaten to activate Article 16

2. Activate Article 16 (a mechanism in NIP)

3. Rip up NIP entirely

EU won’t like rhetoric - but important to maintain perspective if UK goes for option 1

Many expect of these three options, Frost will go for option 1 rather than option 2 or 3

FT tonight thinks so as well: on.ft.com/3hQUa36

But following the US demarche and the need for their cooperation over COP26, some believe UK gvt have rowed back from going further

I’d expect the UK to say that the EU interpretation of the protocol is completely j acceptable

Their changes may imply a need for a change to the text, but they may well not ask for one

But unless they say text of the protocol must be rewritten, this is a less dramatic option

What’s the UK game? Keep temporary transition arrangements in place for so long they become permanent. Gamble that France and Germany won’t want the fight, even tho it’s election time

Maybe that gamble will pay off. Maybe it won’t.

There was some suggestion in government that Lord Frost was unhappy with the eventual position reached in government, though others firmly denied this today

Remember it was Michael Gove who negotiated this bit of the deal, not him

But he is down to front it tomorrow

There ARE grounds to build a case for proactively triggering Article 16

This would be a surprise outcome tho not impossible

Under A16, the UK can take action if the protocol creates a “diversion of trade” to NI from GB to IRE

- see @SJAMcBride on this newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/…

The problem exists because the extended grace period for chilled meats expires in October.

The EU want us to follow EU rules for animal treatment and standards. The UK want the EU to recognise existing arrangements are fine as is (“equivalence”)

This week there will be heat and light. But the Westminster Parliament rises on Thursday, and Brussels and the European Commission, which leads negotiations, is on holiday in August

So expect this to go to the wire again in September

NEW: US State Dept tonight urging UK government not to rip up protocol - ie stick to options 1 or 2 above

https://twitter.com/suzannelynch1/status/1417573070794076168

NEW: US State Dept spokesman says NIP operation is “something we are watching”

(US leverage probably more to do with COP climate change summit than a UK-US trade deal which is currently dormant)

https://twitter.com/suzannelynch1/status/1417574677371932673

But remember Boris Johnson has shown himself unwilling simply to bend to US pressure on this issue….

…. Just as Vote Leave before resisted President Obama’s “back of the queue” comment