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Sam Coates Sky

@SamCoatesSky

20 Jul

Tomorrow Lord Frost will set out changes to operation of NI protocol (NIP)

It could:

1. Threaten to activate Article 16

2. Activate Article 16 (a mechanism in NIP)

3. Rip up NIP entirely

EU won’t like rhetoric - but important to maintain perspective if UK goes for option 1

Many expect of these three options, Frost will go for option 1 rather than option 2 or 3

FT tonight thinks so as well: on.ft.com/3hQUa36

But following the US demarche and the need for their cooperation over COP26, some believe UK gvt have rowed back from going further

I’d expect the UK to say that the EU interpretation of the protocol is completely j acceptable

Their changes may imply a need for a change to the text, but they may well not ask for one

But unless they say text of the protocol must be rewritten, this is a less dramatic option

Read 11 tweets

Sam Coates Sky

@SamCoatesSky

16 Jul

@breeallegretti

So there's a live discussion in gvt about whether France should go on the red list - requiring £££ hotel quarantine from those who come back.

As per @breeallegretti and @HarryYorke1

Some health figures in favour, but it's a massive call requiring ministerial agreement

1/

I'm told Whitehall believe there is a short window to make a decision on France - possibly just days

France is the second biggest holiday destination after Spain. Most state schools break up next Friday. There's a belief a decision needs to be made before then.

2/

Why? If a decision is made after next Friday, then too many people will already be abroad and there wont be enough hotel rooms to quarantine all those coming back.

But will they?

3/

Read 8 tweets

Sam Coates Sky

@SamCoatesSky

8 Jul

I understand there is concern in Whitehall over what to do about the sheer number of people expected to be told to isolate in the coming days.

This could be a big problem over next 5 weeks after Sajid Javid announced 10 day quarantine for double jabbed wont end until Aug 16

The Department for Health privately confirmed to others in Whitehall it is looking at the scheme

Chancellor Rishi Sunak confirmed one plan this morning: to make the Covid app bluetooth function less sensitive. There were 356,036 app alerts in England in week to June 30 - up 62%

But some in Whitehall want Sajid Javid to go further

Look at the stats

In the week to June 30, 135,685 people tested positive

and

281,500 people who had come into contact with Covid patients were identified via NHS Test and Trace and told to isolate

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

Read 6 tweets

Sam Coates Sky

@SamCoatesSky

18 Jun

Why the Tories should be worried by the Chesham and Amersham by-election

6 key lessons
news.sky.com/story/why-the-…

Takeaway 1

Westminster conventional logic - that the Tories would win - wrong *again*

Takeaway 2 - The Lib Dems live!

Read 7 tweets

Sam Coates Sky

@SamCoatesSky

18 Jun

Winning the Tory stronghold since the seat was first created in 1974, look at the huge changes to the share of the vote in Chesham and Amersham. Voters believed it was a two horse race

LDEM: 56.7% (+30.4)
CON: 35.5% (-19.9)
GRN: 3.9% (-1.6)
LAB: 1.6% (-11.2)
REFUK: 1.1% (+1.1)

Huge collapse in the Tory vote definitely wasn’t seen coming by many in Tory circles - it’s MPs expected to hold on by around 1,500. They lost by 8,028

One Tory told me yesterday alarm bells rang only when colleagues were getting out the vote. “Half said they wouldn’t vote for us and the other half wouldn’t look at us in the eye which is never a good sign”

Tbf leading Lib Dem’s a week ago were also sceptical they’d win

Read 5 tweets

Sam Coates Sky

@SamCoatesSky

14 Jun

@LBC

Fascinating development

Keir Starmer on @LBC says “having checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland is not the way forward”

Appears to be a boost for Boris Johnson, giving him cover from Labour to challenge EU approach to Protocol

I asked a Labour source whether Labour supported the NI protocol when it was agreed in December

They sidestepped the q and said the vote in December was the Free Trade Agreement not the protocol

That’s true about late Dec vote but….

Here is then Labour shadow cabinet office minister Rachel Reeves on Dec 10 backing the Northern Ireland protocol ….

AND

Asking about checks - giving the impression they were aware backing the protocol means backing checks

But now Starmer is walking back from that…?

Read 6 tweets

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